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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, January 3rd, 2023
Indices: Dow -0.03% | S&P 500 -0.40% | Russell 2000 -0.60% | Nasdaq 100 -0.70%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 Sectors closed higher. Communications led, gaining +1.29%. Energy lagged by a decent margin, dropping -3.51%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -4.15% to $76.93 per barrel. Gold futures rose +1.09% to $1,846 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +1.15% to $104.69.
Crypto: Bitcoin was flat, and continues to trade around $16,670. Ethereum was also unchanged and continues to trade around $1,214.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield moved lower to 3.743%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today the US dollar index $DXY found support at a shelf of former highs, rallying into its strongest seasonal period. pic.twitter.com/PARq00ZXJT
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) January 3, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ian Culley (@IanCulley). The US Dollar kicked off the new year with its best day in nearly three months today, rising +1.15%. As you probably know, Dollar strength was one of the biggest headwinds for stocks and risk assets last year. After correcting almost 10% from its September peak, Ian points out that it’s finding support at the 2016/2020 highs around $103. Seasonality also points to a stronger Dollar in the near term, with January being the best month for $DXY on average over the past four decades. After a three-month correction, this would be a logical place for the Dollar to rebound.
Quote of the Day
“There are far better things ahead than any we leave behind.”
– C.S. Lewis
Top Links
January Weaker Last 21 Years – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how the major indices have historically fared in January.
The Time and Place for a DXY Rally – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines a potential rebound in the US Dollar.
The Top 5 Charts of 2022 – The Final Bar
In this video, David Keller highlights some of the most noteworthy charts of 2022.
2022 Was One of the Worst Years Ever for Markets – A Wealth of Common Sense
Ben Carlson looks back at the carnage that took place in markets last year.
Top Tweets
Daily Mkt Mood: Risk-Off
1. Stocks down on solid volume
2. Bonds rally, oil -4%
3. Dollar +1%
4. Apple, Tesla thrown out with the bath waterBut… AMZN, GOOGL, META, PYPL & others up big.
It feels like $SPX rally may be ahead, but… feelings aren’t facts.
Need confirmation!
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) January 3, 2023
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/adhWs65m3R
— Savvy Trader (@SvvyTrdr) January 3, 2023
Here's a look at YoY change for key ETFs versus today's performance to start the new year. Some big moves to start the new year, with Energy $XLE down 3.5% and Comm. Services $XLC up 1.3%. Brazil $EWZ fell 7.4% today while the rest of the world rallied. https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn pic.twitter.com/wcTTvULTpp
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 3, 2023
– The average return on the Dow Jones since 1900 is 7.5%.
– The number of calendar years the return came in between 5-10% equals 11 out of a possible 123.
– That's less than 9% of the time!
The average return doesn't exist!@RyanDetrick pic.twitter.com/WQCrcOF9hs
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) January 3, 2023
Since 1950, pre-election years have ended with a gain of at least 10%, 13 out of 18 times, or 72% of the time.
7 out of 18 times, or 39% of the time, pre-election years have ended with a gain of at least 20%.
The average gain is +16.79% $SPY pic.twitter.com/pVZIrXPuLE
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) January 3, 2023
After 5 straight years of Growth outperformance, #Value outpaced Growth by 21.6% in 2022.
It was the strongest year of Value outperformance since 2000.
While all cycles different, Value outperformed Growth 7 straight years during that epic post-bubble run from 2000 to 2006. pic.twitter.com/baNQZ8njWv
— Cetera Investment Management (@ceteraIM) January 3, 2023
The big boys are at a key level!
Trends do persist… so do we see a full round trip back to pre covid highs? $MSFT $AAPL $GOOGL $AMZN $SPY #stocks pic.twitter.com/KfhBvQ5MDN
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) January 3, 2023
Rejection at the underside of $130…$AAPL https://t.co/qx66EfJSop pic.twitter.com/MIwGCTdRi9
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) January 3, 2023
Yo, Charts — S&P Rel to Rest of World. pic.twitter.com/iNvTYFQ9XR
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) January 3, 2023
The correlation between stock prices and bond yields has flipped into negative territory and could indicate a longer period of disruption for markets. pic.twitter.com/7Rh9oCVC5I
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) January 3, 2023
The dollar $DXY starting off the year strong, and likely headed headed higher. $UUP is a easy way to play this. Notice bottom structure forming while RSI never hit oversold conditions and has been climbing since early Dec.
Strong $ is not bullish for stocks$QQQ $SPY pic.twitter.com/1GIY69sC1h
— Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades) January 3, 2023
The SBF saga seems to have brought something completely new to Bitcoin — price stability. pic.twitter.com/ycj1J92AGk
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) January 3, 2023
A good illustration of how much a stock has to recover after a loss to get back to even. pic.twitter.com/xOHmrOgT6B
— Brian Lund (@bclund) January 3, 2023
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!