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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, January 4th, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +1.25% | S&P 500 +0.75% | Nasdaq 100 +0.48% | Dow +0.40%
Sectors: 10 of the 11 Sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining +2.29%. Energy was the only sector that closed lower, but just barely (-0.01%).
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -5.32% to $72.84 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.70% to a seven-month high of $1,859 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.41% to $104.26.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.11% to $16,855. Ethereum gained +3.41% to $1,256.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.686%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
3900 is proving to be a major battleground, there is a lot of price memory here from Anchored VWAPs
light blue=June low
purple = August high
green= 2022 low
red= December high
dark blue= Fed meetingmarket is stuck in a choppy zone until it breaks the 3800-3900 range $ES_F $SPY pic.twitter.com/HIbMvNe1ie
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) January 4, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Brian Shannon (@alphatrends). It’s a six-hour candlestick chart of S&P 500 futures over the past six months. The S&P 500 has been stuck in a narrow range between 3800 & 3900 for more than two weeks now. Brian points out that there is a lot of price memory within this range, as several key AVWAPs have converged there. Even the VWAP from the Covid low is within this tight range. When you have multiple VWAPs bunching together like this, it strengthens the implications of a potential breakout or breakdown. Price will likely resolve higher or lower out of this range in the coming days, given how long this chopfest has persisted. It would be very constructive to see a decisive break above 3900 in the near term, but that hasn’t happened just yet.
Quote of the Day
“Growth and comfort do not coexist.”
– Ginni Rometty
Top Links
Average Isn’t So Average When it Comes to Investing – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick points out that the S&P 500 rarely has an ‘average’ year.
The 10 Charts to Watch in 2023 – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison highlights 10 noteworthy charts to keep an eye on this year.
The New Year Could Be All About Junk Bonds – StockCharts.com
Mish Schneider takes a look at High Yield Bonds and what they’re suggesting about risk appetite.
Pre-Election Years = 80% Hit Rate After Down Mid-Terms – All Star Charts
JC Parets examines what the Presidential Cycle could mean for the S&P 500 this year.
The U.S. Stock Market: Best and Worst Performing Sectors in 2022 – Visual Capitalist
Visual Capitalist breaks down the 2022 heat map of the S&P 500.
Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/M9UskSZ5a8
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) January 4, 2023
It is official, Santa came to town for a 7th year in row.
Not all that surprising, as these are some of strongest days of the year. The bigger worry would have been if he failed to show.
Nice job, Santa. pic.twitter.com/16Pi9o05k1
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) January 4, 2023
Santa Claus Rally (SCR)
Day 1: +0.59%
Day 2: -0.40%
Day 3: -1.20%
Day 4: +1.75%
Day 5: -0.25%
Day 6: -0.40%
Day 7: +0.75
——————-
Cumulative: +0.80%
((3852.98-3822.38)/3822.38))A Positive Santa Claus Rally Period! pic.twitter.com/WNo3Zihy2T
— David Zarling, CMT (@AdaptivCharts) January 4, 2023
First day back from holiday break… and this is a friendly reminder that $SPX is still below a trendline using the 2022 highs. And if you didn't think 3800 was a key support level before, you probably should now! pic.twitter.com/J6kckGjNHe
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) January 4, 2023
SP, Naz, Dow, Rus have OD/ID pattern on the daily charts. Our testing showed this to be one of the more reliable breakout patterns, tho nothing is 100%… pic.twitter.com/aFsfYt9ddT
— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) January 4, 2023
The equal weight S&P 500 ETF is having a nice strong day, reclaiming the 200 day. #Optuma $RSP pic.twitter.com/pTPDP6bT1a
— Theodore Hicks, CFP, CKA, CMT (@t2hicks) January 4, 2023
Mega-caps continue to lag.
If this was a stock there would be plenty of buyers pic.twitter.com/6m0tORwRhD
— Tyler Lovingood (@Tyler_Lovingood) January 4, 2023
Gangbusters Santa Claus Rally.
For Emerging Markets. +4.1%$SPY +0.8% pic.twitter.com/gyTwnBCV5F
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) January 4, 2023
FWIW, this thrust by international stocks relative to U.S. stocks looks like the real thing to me. The model I follow is still defensive, but whenever the next trend-following signal turns bullish I will likely allocate capital to int’l stocks (for the 1st time in a long time). pic.twitter.com/XQYkcDQbLA
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) January 4, 2023
The iShares MSCI China ETF $MCHI is just now getting back to its COVID Crash low from March 2020 after a 46% rally since 10/31/22.https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn pic.twitter.com/cIwX9BQvyn
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 4, 2023
$DXY really trying hard to dig its heels in the sand here at ~104. RSI has yet to get oversold. Still below a (upward sloping) 200d MA I believe. pic.twitter.com/0ab8o1Irzz
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) January 4, 2023
Gold prints fresh 7-month highs this morning. $GC_F $GLD pic.twitter.com/jb5dJrrW9J
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) January 4, 2023
$GDX +4.25% today and now up nearly 8% so far in 2023. This move higher comes after a tight range-bound oscillation for the entire month of December.
Daily-RSI(14) in sweet spot territory but not close to overbought yet. Volume confirming price breakout. #gold #metals #mining pic.twitter.com/JbRBWTbGD6
— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) January 4, 2023
The year is 2026, and the $SPX is still pinning at $3850.
— John F. Carter (@johnfcarter) January 4, 2023
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!