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Today’s Summary
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Indices: Dow +0.03% | Russell 2000 -0.08% | S&P 500 -0.34% | Nasdaq 100 -0.53%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Health Care led, rising +0.50%. Energy lagged, dropping -1.75%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.70% to $72.19 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.35% to $2,050 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was little changed (-0.04%) at $102.42.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +3.08% to $44,186. Ethereum gained +2.66% to $2,270.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +0.78% to 14.14.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.001%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$SPY Watching $460 pic.twitter.com/EiCqzo7GK0
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) January 4, 2024
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Mike Zaccardi (@MikeZaccardi). The S&P 500 ($SPY) has fallen four consecutive days after rising for nine consecutive weeks. $SPY fumbled its initial attempt at all-time highs this week, but Mike points out it’s approaching potential support at $460. $SPY was rejected at this level in March ’22 and July ’23 but finally broke out last month. The outcome of this test will reveal whether this is a healthy pullback or the start of a deeper corrective phase. A breakdown would open the door to further downside, while a bounce would give the index a second shot at all-time highs.
Quote of the Day
“Price reactions and pullbacks allow you to determine whether your stock is a tennis ball or an egg.”
– Mark Minervini
Top Links
Santa Didn’t Come, Now What – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick looks at the potential implications of a failed Santa Claus Rally.
Santa Fails to Call, But Trifecta 2 out of 3 Aint Bad – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch highlights the other two seasonal indicators of the January Indicator Trifecta.
We’re in a Bull Market and Have Been for Almost a Year, Says Renaissance’s Jeff deGraaf
Jeff deGraaf of Renaissance Macro Research shares his thoughts on the current market environment.
Sentiment Signals Mixed – Bespoke
Bespoke dissects the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Visualizing 150 Years of S&P 500 Returns – Visual Capitalist
Here’s a visual breakdown of the annual returns in the S&P 500.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 is down the first three days of the year.
It hasn't been down the first four days of a new year since 1978 (record 7 in a row then).
I was born in 1978, so that's a long time ago.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) January 4, 2024
The $NDQ Nasdaq 100 has dropped 5 consecutive trading days – notably from its record high.
It's been 260 trading days since the last 5-day drop. Further, 308 trading days since the last 6-day drop and 1,801 trading days since the last time we had a more than 6-day straight drop pic.twitter.com/mE5hi2EPSq
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) January 4, 2024
$XLK support zone around $181 seems to be a significant level…
Those were July '23 highs, a breakaway gap level, and a retest of support exactly a month ago
This zone could possibly come into play again – something to watch pic.twitter.com/muK9xwmVk5
— Dash, CMT, CFP (@Dash_charts) January 4, 2024
Utilities relative chart is a good signal for trend shifts in the S&P 500. The group managed to stabilize in December, leading to the market weakness to start this year. If the sector gathers momentum, expect a bigger turnover in the market. If it doesn’t, bull will stay intact. pic.twitter.com/r8kUtiARY4
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) January 4, 2024
Check out this failed breakdown vs. the rest of the market in the Staples. $XLP
At the very least, we should expect the Staples to track with the market over the next month or two. The more likely outcome is a reversion towards the 200-day moving average. pic.twitter.com/GhYb4xMKCT
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) January 4, 2024
$VIX is getting bored. Smells like 2022. Your hedges suck. 😬😆😉 pic.twitter.com/6wvTbL4NIy
— Jim Carroll (@vixologist) January 4, 2024
McClellan Oscillator has moved below zero, and no that is not bullish for $SPX $SPY. pic.twitter.com/Z4TZzjaGIk
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) January 4, 2024
Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500$QQQ / $SPY pic.twitter.com/EtlKvYNrKY
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) January 4, 2024
$IWM Things that make you go hmmm 🤔 pic.twitter.com/BHwgIXRHCn
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) January 4, 2024
December fund flows into the S&P 500 ETF $SPY was the strongest monthly inflow in a decade at $39.4 billion. pic.twitter.com/drVLhnV41d
— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) January 4, 2024
Stocks tend to struggle after ETF inflows surge and inflows (as % of overall mkt cap) right now are at a 7 year high. (Chart courtesy of @NDR_Research) pic.twitter.com/pXUA4kCr1j
— Hi Mount Research (@HiMountResearch) January 4, 2024
Decision Time for Treasury Bonds – Will the 200D moving average hold for $TLT? pic.twitter.com/fk8VfWxZKD
— Barchart (@Barchart) January 4, 2024
Behold the $COAL Index
Equally Weighted $AMR $ARCH $CEIX $METC $ARLP $BTU $HCC
@Convertbond is that an uptrend? lol pic.twitter.com/lcCCqtz4BX
— Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 (@cfromhertz) January 4, 2024
The top 50 performing S&P 500 stocks in 2023 have had a wild ride over the past few years…$SPX $SPY #stocks pic.twitter.com/4pcNjG0UnQ
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) January 4, 2024