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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Indices: Dow –0.25% | Nasdaq 100 -0.56% | S&P500 -0.56% | Russell 2000 -0.73%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Consumer Staples led but still ticked lower by -0.07%. Real Estate lagged, falling -1.83%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures inched higher by +0.22% to $72.56 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -1.17% to $2,007 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was flat (+0.03%) at $103.37.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.91% to $42,738. Ethereum dropped -2.28% to $2,528.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +6.94% to 14.80.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.106%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$SOXX holding former highs.
Based on the action of leading semis (i.e. $NVDA and $AMD), I think this ultimately resolves higher.
That said, $TSM reports tomorrow. So, they could help determine the near-term direction of the group. pic.twitter.com/ClwnNZBDj8
— Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades) January 18, 2024
🏆 Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades).
- The Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) has coiled into a narrow triangle pattern over the past three weeks. Pressure is building for a decisive move or trend in either direction.
- This consolidation is taking place above the July highs (yellow line), and the former cycle highs from 2021. Semis have been an excellent leading indicator for the broader market.
- Tomorrow’s earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) could act as a catalyst. $TSM is not a large component in $SOXX, but it’s the 2nd largest in the other popular Semi ETF, $SMH.
The takeaway: Semiconductor stocks ($SOXX) are nearing a decision point after weeks of coiling into a tight range—the direction in which $SOXX resolves will likely set the tone for the broader market.
Quote of the Day
“Market prices of financial assets do not accurately reflect their fundamental value because they do not even aim to do so. Prices reflect market participants’ expectations of future market prices.”
– George Soros
Top Links
Chart Advisor – Investopedia
John Kolovos shares six noteworthy charts.
Breadth and Momentum are Stalling – CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri inspects the internal health of the market.
Will This Dollar Rally Ever End? – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines the recent strength in the US Dollar.
Is Copper About to Send a Macro Economic Message To Investors? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that Copper is reaching a decision point.
Election Year January Tracking Historical Seasonal Pattern – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how stocks typically perform in January.
Top Tweets
On October 5, 1979, the S&P 500 recorded a 52-week high.
The next day, more than 85% of NYSE volume flowed into declining issues. The same thing happened the next day.
It is the only day in 60 years a new high was followed by consecutive 85% down volume days.
Until today.… pic.twitter.com/5UhRBPyxil
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) January 17, 2024
$RSP pic.twitter.com/yiJfWRFc5x
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) January 17, 2024
$NVDA and $AMD both printed hammer candles on above average volume in a strong uptrend…
If we're bullish tomorrow, keep these two on watch. 💪 pic.twitter.com/zJswS1TgrF
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) January 17, 2024
The higher up and to the right, the stronger
X-axis: change since October 3rd (day when the list of new lows and the US dollar index peaked)
Y-axis: change since December 14th (day when the list of new highs peaked)
Technology, biotech, medical devices, uranium and insurance📈… pic.twitter.com/pWOGi5OslK
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) January 17, 2024
Our Carson Cycle Composite was quite accurate last year.
I've updated it for '24 and it suggests that weakness early in '24 would be perfectly normal. pic.twitter.com/inedDxbxJW
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) January 17, 2024
My take? If you can manage the cyclical, the secular will take care of itself. Easier said than done, of course. pic.twitter.com/CsLKWEIuIo
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) January 17, 2024
Chart of the Week – The Trouble With China
Chinese Equities are breaking down, and that’s a big deal because the drivers behind this move matter immensely for global markets, and the global economy.
Firstly, in terms of what has happened, China A shares have broken down through… pic.twitter.com/qwZgG7g68b
— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) January 17, 2024
$GDX smoked last 2 days pic.twitter.com/MtKWoByS3i
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) January 17, 2024
#Gold is down ~3% so far in 2024. Meanwhile, #1 global gold producer Newmont is down ~16% 📉
It's impressive how much leverage to the downside $NEM gives its shareholders 🤢. #metals #mining $GDX pic.twitter.com/SvzP77xpGZ
— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) January 17, 2024
While stocks have been correcting over the past few weeks, Treasury Bonds have NOT acted as a safe haven at all. In fact, Treasury Bonds have sold off a lot more. Some investors can adapt to changing environments. Most cannot. Just watch. pic.twitter.com/2xKk05rTxY
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) January 17, 2024
— Franklin Templeton (@FTI_US) January 17, 2024
Franklin Templeton discovering crypto pic.twitter.com/oTWP7PvhJh
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) January 17, 2024