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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, January 18th, 2022
Indices: Dow -1.51% | S&P 500 -1.84% | Nasdaq -2.60% | Russell 2000 -3.06%
Sectors: Energy was the only sector that closed positive, gaining 0.40%. Technology lagged, dropping 2.40%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose 2.07% to a two-month high of $84.83 per barrel. Gold futures slipped 0.23% to $1,812 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained 0.50%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a fresh two-year high of 1.875%
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Crude oil futures look strong late in the day, with potential new 7-year highs for black gold…
We could see that 100 level a lot sooner than many expect. $CL_F #energy pic.twitter.com/wg2Cfj1Ydp
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) January 18, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ian Cully (@IanCulley). It’s a chart of Crude Oil futures over the past three years. Crude Oil broke out to its highest level since 2014 today, at around $85 per barrel. Ian points out that the next major resistance level is around $100 per barrel, which is about 17% higher from here. While $100 may seem like an arbitrary round number, it also coincides with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the 2020 decline. These key Fibonacci levels tend to act as price magnets, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Crude test triple digits at some point in the next few months. This is bad news for consumers at the gas pump, but good news for Energy stocks.
Quote of the Day
“Mistakes are the portals of discovery.”
– James Joyce
Top Links
Energy and Emerging Markets – Means to a Trend
Austin Harrison takes a look at the recent strength in Energy Stocks and Emerging Markets.
Energy Exploding (Relatively Speaking) – Bespoke
Bespoke examines the recent outperformance from the Energy sector.
The Strongest O&G Stocks | Pardon the Price Action – All Star Charts
In this quick video, JC Parets and Steve Strazza discuss the implications of higher interest rates and more.
Another Bullish Pattern for the Agriculture ETF – StockCharts.com
Arthur Hill points out that Agricultural Commodities look ready to move higher.
NRGU Oil ETN Up 63% In The Past 2 Weeks – Seeking Alpha
Here’s a breakdown of the MicroSectors U.S. Big Oil Index 3X Leveraged ETN, $NRGU.
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Top Tweets
Just halfway through January and $SPX is 4.6% of its high – that's just a few bps shy of the maximum drawdown experienced in all of 2021. pic.twitter.com/MfhhKA7DqU
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) January 18, 2022
Nasdaq below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2020. pic.twitter.com/lIbzILBgqY
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) January 18, 2022
I would love a 3-6 month correction to reset base counts, flush sentiment, and provide incredible relative strength opportunities. Of course, the market doesn't care what I want, but it's a possibility considering we just came off a shorter, 4th stage base in the Nasdaq Comp. pic.twitter.com/1cs8dme2pl
— Joseph Fahmy (@jfahmy) January 18, 2022
52 week low close in $RUT pic.twitter.com/M8W1xEIbvv
— Tom Hearden (@followtheh) January 18, 2022
Tiny hats…$IWM $IWC pic.twitter.com/htZUhTNoaZ
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) January 18, 2022
#VIX – New updated best fit cycle on VIX … suggests upward pressure until early February. pic.twitter.com/2GG5zog3Y2
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) January 18, 2022
Biotech is at a significant level right now. Trading in a potential major support band from 2020 & 2018 peaks and a break in either direction could produce a big move.
$XBI pic.twitter.com/171K9pqJCl— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) January 18, 2022
Does extended vs. the 50DMA mean that it has to stop going up? Energy. pic.twitter.com/NRyqU7ByC7
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) January 18, 2022
Energy stocks breaking out on a relative basis pic.twitter.com/r48F4pOGDi
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) January 18, 2022
Crude Oil closed at its highest level since October 2014, up 62% over the last year. $WTIC pic.twitter.com/v6U3uSNv2E
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 18, 2022
$WTIC is stretched versus 200-week trend, basis 2-sigma Bollinger Band. Price can “ride the rail,” as in 2005-2008, but majority of cases since 1990 featured prompt reversion to 200wma or lower. pic.twitter.com/VOYwWBE2Mj
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) January 18, 2022
10 YR Yield – continues to be THE chart that's moving the market pic.twitter.com/80bgM6ubRg
— Matt Petrallia (@theEquilibrium) January 18, 2022
With 10yr yields thru resistance at 1.77%, it's important to remember the downtrend from 1981 rests at 2.68%, so the peak in rates for this cycle is likely lower than that. $TLT #rates pic.twitter.com/pSjeHk4bvd
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) January 18, 2022
@TheChartReport 10yr Tsy yield may be best viewed long term monthly after last weeks "hanging man" negated so far… on Friday the monthly MACD went red to green for first time since Feb'17. Yield peaked 20 months later at 3.26%. Next stop 2%? pic.twitter.com/H6PNMvbQxa
— brian.joyce.nasdaq (@Nasdaqbjoyce) January 18, 2022
In the past three decades, there have been four distinct periods of rate-hike cycles by the Fed, which historically haven’t been detrimental to U.S. equity markets or $SPX tech sector, via @StrategasRP. Cyclical bias helped heading into the first rate hike but was mixed later. pic.twitter.com/ZSdL0JmRT7
— Jessica Menton (@JessicaMenton) January 18, 2022
do you guys think this silly rock is ever gonna get going? buyers keep stepping up where they need to. But is there enough of them to finally break it out like literally every other commodity? $SLV $SI_F #silver pic.twitter.com/IU6rWjrBd4
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) January 18, 2022
Looking like it could be Peter's year pic.twitter.com/aQKoLKBwbQ
— Louis Sykes (@haumicharts) January 18, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!