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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.43% | S&P500 +0.29% | Dow -0.25% | Russell 2000 -0.36%
Sectors: 7 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Staples led, gaining +1.09%. Real Estate lagged, falling -0.54%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.52% to $74.37 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.18% to $2,026 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.16% to $103.53.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +0.86% to $39,868. Ethereum dropped -3.02% to $2,241.
Volatility: The Volatility Index fell -4.86% to 12.54.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.132%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
So it's a little early for this but anytime the market makes a new ATH, Dow Theory' gets a look.
Transports correlation nearing the lower bound (still some room) meaning at some pt the two indices need to get back in 'gear' (note this process can go both ways).$ES_F $IYT pic.twitter.com/NLKj8xYQYY
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) January 23, 2024
🏆 Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Arun Chopra (@FusionptCapital).
- It’s hard to deny that a new bull market is underway. However, Charlie Dow might disagree, considering we haven’t had a Dow Theory Buy Signal in over two years.
- One tenet of Dow Theory states that the market averages must confirm one another. Dow thought the companies that make the goods (Industrials) should trend with the companies that move the goods (Transports).
- The Dow Industrial Average has been printing all-time highs since mid-December, while Transports haven’t made new highs since Nov. ’21.
Arun points out that one will likely catch up to the other soon as the 160-day correlation is getting stretched.
The takeaway: The lack of confirmation between the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports challenges the bull case. This divergence will likely resolve soon; however, Industrials don’t always ‘catch down.’
Quote of the Day
“All-time highs mean that there is no natural source of supply from profit takers.”
– Brian Shannon
Top Links
Six Things to Know About All-Time Highs – Carson Research
Ryan Detrick highlights six facts about record highs.
S&P 500 Percent of Time at New Highs – Bespoke
Bespoke looks at the frequency of all-time highs in the S&P 500.
Peak in New 6-Month Highs – Thrasher Analytics
Andrew Thrasher points out that the percentage of six-month highs in the S&P 500 has been declining while the index has been hitting all-time highs.
Everything That Glitters – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison examines the outlook for Precious Metals.
Top Tweets
3rd consecutive closing high in. It's not unusual to have multiple new highs grouped together, with the histogram showing the number of new highs over 20 days. The most was 15 new highs out of 20 days in March 1964, with multiple 10+ periods since 2013: pic.twitter.com/uOKKFNzsaV
— Optuma (@Optuma) January 23, 2024
Are you ready for this? Money invested when the market is at all time highs has outperformed money invested on any given day. pic.twitter.com/dwMcVrDkfG
— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) January 23, 2024
The S&P 500 hit an all-time high for the 3rd day in a row today. Here's a stat for you:
Historically, the S&P has been within 5% of an all-time high on 44% of all trading days versus the 40% of the time it has been 10% or more below an all-time high.
Check out the chart: pic.twitter.com/gbuA4jGcWS
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 23, 2024
Big ups to Uncle Warren. New all-time highs pic.twitter.com/PgSWHTY7Hb
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) January 23, 2024
$FXI China best day since July 2023 pic.twitter.com/0T3548FJQs
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) January 23, 2024
China retest underway… pic.twitter.com/S6yqAwsnQS
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) January 23, 2024
Gloom, doom, and stimulus are good precursors for a bottom in China, but the chart needs a lot more work. Maybe it is because the govt sees this chart where zero alpha has been generated in 17 years, and if a break of the 2016-2019 lows occurs, then the door opens up for another… pic.twitter.com/opgXzfCDRv
— John Kolovos, CMT, CFA (@John_Kolovos) January 23, 2024
In my view, the price of Bitcoin is driven by the size and growth of its network, which in turn is driven by its scarcity features (stock-to-flow) and real rates (Fed policy). As the chart shows, Bitcoin’s network is growing in line with a standard power regression curve. That… pic.twitter.com/xtywnxMbtn
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) January 23, 2024
Stocks vs. Rocks
The S&P 500 is threatening to break out of a 2-year range relative to Gold $SPX $GLD pic.twitter.com/3mQyAYKgMC
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) January 23, 2024
Gold bars sell out almost immediately at Costco but ironically buyers would have been much better off historically simply purchasing Costco stock. Since Costco's IPO in 1985…
-Costco stock $COST: +116,600%
-Gold: +413%
-Inflation: +228%Video: https://t.co/EE7qT4cuqp pic.twitter.com/oWjCyJ7Yft
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 23, 2024