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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, February 8th, 2023
Indices: Dow -0.61% | S&P 500 -1.11% | Russell 2000 -1.52% | Nasdaq 100 -1.83%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Real Estate led but still slipped -0.27%. Communications lagged, dropping -3.14%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures gained +1.72% to $78.47 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.31% to $1,891 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher by +0.13% to $103.47.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.25% to $22,961. Ethereum fell -1.26% to $1,651.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.613%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$SPX – I know my brain is small but it feels odd to me to call a 9 month base an "irrational bear market rally". pic.twitter.com/LLqORHhv6m
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) February 8, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts). It’s a monthly chart of the S&P 500 over the past five years. With all the choppiness recently, Larry reminds us to zoom out and defer to the message of the long-term chart. The bulls have a lot to love here. For starters, the S&P 500 reclaimed its 10-month moving average in January. Second, it has formed a solid base over the past nine months, with resistance around 4100. Some will call it an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. Semantics aside, this is an accumulation pattern, and it’s not bearish.
Quote of the Day
“When things go badly, people become cautious. Then their caution causes things to go well, and when things go well, they become incautious. I think that’s a forever cycle.”
– Howard Marks
Top Links
Understanding the Strange Market Climate – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White takes a look at what has historically happened when the VIX and the S&P 500 move higher together.
Bull Market: Stocks Making More New Highs Than New Lows – TD Ameritrade Network
In this clip, Willie Delwiche offers his perspective on the current market environment.
There’s a Big Macro Shift Taking Place That Could Erase the Bulk of This Year’s Stock Market Gains – Business Insider
Katie Stockton shares her thoughts on the US Dollar and its potential impact on Stocks.
Big Level Ahead for the Kiing Dollar – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines a potential rebound in the US Dollar.
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Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/lQ4cZuLSqU
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) February 8, 2023
S&P 500’s rally since mid-October (blue) has been similar in magnitude to rally from June-August 2022, but % of members trading above 50d moving average (orange) hasn’t climbed to similar level
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/qqMXxwxaXI— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 8, 2023
$SPX right at the zero line this week for the McClellan Oscillator. Definitely a chart to watch on pullbacks… pic.twitter.com/38bOXTFHkU
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) February 8, 2023
VVIX +11.71% had the largest 1-day percentage gain since 9/23/22. Maybe those jaws are spooking bulls after a great run to start the year as they likely still have jitters from last year. $VIX $VVIX $SPY pic.twitter.com/7xjnJ8jSic
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) February 8, 2023
As highlighted by the great team @t1alpha, $VVIX jumped more than 10% today. Big deal? Could be, but not that unusual. Draw your own conclusions. pic.twitter.com/orj4v7cPci
— Jim Carroll (@vixologist) February 8, 2023
How is the options market pricing next week's CPI? Implied vol jumps from about 14 to 20 in $SPY and an expected move of about 1.3% into and 2% move out of the event.
Generate potential trades on those strikes here: https://t.co/H2kf4Ze01u pic.twitter.com/K8Dcv0INhS— Options AI (@OptionsLearn) February 8, 2023
Uh oh, did Lucy just pull the football on Charlie Brown again? Emerging markets failed “thrust” has a familiar look to it. Still watching this one closely… #sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/0aqfD6y6zE
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) February 8, 2023
More E.M. Ex. China funds are coming to market… inclined to believe the vol involved with China equities is one reason why. 14 calendar year corrections of 30% over the last 30 years. pic.twitter.com/t1iqgu3QJh
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) February 8, 2023
Jeez, OJ futures taking off like an F22 going after a Chinese spy balloon! Enjoy the ride! pic.twitter.com/tY9d2tdQMV
— Tom Basso (@basso_tom) February 8, 2023
If only a cult had formed around Orange Juice pic.twitter.com/Gse8pZiRyA
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) February 8, 2023