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Today’s Summary
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Indices: Russell 2000 +1.50% | Nasdaq +0.16% | Dow +0.13% | S&P 500 +0.06%
Sectors: 6 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led gaining +1.03%. Utilities lagged, falling -0.71%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +3.20% to $76.22 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.19% $2,048 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher by +0.08% to $104.14.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +2.15% to $45,300. Ethereum inched lower by -0.17% to $2,420.
Volatility: The Volatility Index ticked lower by -0.16% to 12.80.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.154%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$IWM $RTY_F $RUT $RTY Small caps are getting TOIGHT. pic.twitter.com/nTFp4pomBJ
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) February 8, 2024
🏆Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jake Wujastyk (@Jake_Wujastyk).
- The Russell 2000 ($IWM) outperformed by a wide margin today, gaining +1.50%, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat (+0.06%).
- Despite today’s strength, Small Caps have continued to struggle this year. $IWM is barely out of bear market territory (-19%), while the other three major indices are at all-time highs.
- Jake points out that $IWM spent the past six weeks coiling into a tight range or pennant pattern. As price moves toward the apex, pressure builds for an explosive move or trend in whichever direction it resolves. Given the prevailing uptrend, this pattern should resolve higher. If it resolves lower, that will also be very telling.
The takeaway: The Russell 2000 ($IWM) led by a wide margin today despite its abysmal performance this year. After coiling into a tight range over the past six weeks, $IWM is primed for a large move or trend in either direction.
Quote of the Day
“It’s not what you buy, it’s what you pay. Success in investing doesn’t come from buying good things but from buying things well. If you don’t know the difference, you’re in the wrong business.”
– Justin Mamis
Top Links
$SPX 5000! … wait … almost … there it is! – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss highlights some key takeaways from this week’s price action.
All-Time Highs in the Stock Market are Usually Followed by More All-Time Highs – A Wealth of Common Sense
Ben Carlson examines the tendency for the market to continue higher after reaching all-time highs.
Three Charts — Could China be Close to a Bottom? – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist shares his outlook on Chinese equities.
Welcome to the Year of the Dragon and Why We Remain Cautious on China – Carson Research
Ryan Detrick looks at how the S&P 500 has historically performed in the year of the Dragon.
Top Tweets
We did it everyone!$SPX *technically* rose above 5,000 for what seems to be approximately 1 second.
Break out the confetti? pic.twitter.com/nZsnRxbehr
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) February 8, 2024
who did this pic.twitter.com/WBPgpAiK3U
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) February 8, 2024
First Fib target (on the 2021-2022 range) would require 10-12% of additional upside.
TBD if/when/how we get there.
But I can tell you there's a non-zero chance those gains come as part of the current rally…$NDX $QQQ pic.twitter.com/etmjvuRJrn
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) February 8, 2024
Here's the Nasdaq100 Equally-weighted. Does it break through this time around? Or does it need to correct first? pic.twitter.com/A1BiydchOG
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) February 8, 2024
Here's Health Care $XLV breaking out of a 2-year base to new all-time highs. The line in the sand lies at ~142.50. pic.twitter.com/CyBDBoSyPv
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) February 8, 2024
Lots of talk about new high deterioration and breadth divergences…
Well guess what… new lows are also deteriorating…
These are normal things you see during a bull market… $SPY $SPX $NYA #NYSE $IWM $QQQ pic.twitter.com/cO8UIPkkts
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) February 8, 2024
Dow Transports ($TRAN) are nosing above the December high. The Transportation ETF ($IYT) has already cleared its July peak. pic.twitter.com/ZPshUp6TZi
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) February 8, 2024
One Hindenburg Omen signal has fired. This marks tops about half the time. The best take has been that clusters are a useful signal, so watch for that pic.twitter.com/gDlDBjayT3
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) February 8, 2024
Water resource stocks $PHO are up +1.0% today and hitting new all-time highs.
Yes, water resources.
More than half of the fund is classified as mid-cap.
20% is classified as small-cap.
You've probably never heard of the stocks in the fund, but it's hitting new all-time highs. pic.twitter.com/3xMNjczc2G
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) February 8, 2024
Was that it for the "Buy the rumor, sell the news" drop that #BitcoinETF bears were warning us about?#Bitcoin has (so far) rallied +75% in the 3mos before ETF approval, pulled back by more than 12% for less than a week, & now is on track for its 5th highest close in ~2yrs. 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/1LJ7EjW5q7
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) February 8, 2024
$TSM, largest non-US stock, +18% last 6 days – right near an all-time high.
Few talking about this. pic.twitter.com/Ey58xed3D7
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) February 8, 2024