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Today’s Summary
Thursday, February 9th, 2023
Indices: Dow -0.73% | S&P 500 -0.88% | Nasdaq 100 -0.91% | Russell 2000 -1.40%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower for the second day in a row. Consumer Discretionary led, but still slipped -0.19%. Communications lagged, dropping -2.19%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved lower by -0.52% to $78.06 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.65% to $1,879 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.27% to $103.19.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -5.05% to $21,802. Ethereum slid -6.36% to $1,546.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.664%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The second half of February historically can be troublesome for stocks.
After the great start to this year, some typical seasonal weakness wouldn't be all that surprising. pic.twitter.com/JhtOp39WVi
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 9, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). The S&P 500 had one of its best starts to a year recently, however, the next few weeks could get rocky if history rhymes. February is the second weakest month of the year, and the worst month within the ‘best six months’ (October-April). Ryan points out that February typically starts off strong, only to give back its gains in the second half of the month. On a brighter note, the seasonal trend turns bullish again in mid-March. Also, we’re in the midst of what has historically been the best quarter of the 4-year Presidential Cycle. If history is any guide, we could see some giveback over the next few weeks, but there are a lot of positive seasonal forces at play in the bigger picture. For more on these seasonal trends, check out our latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines, with seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch.
Quote of the Day
“Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past; for human events ever resemble those of preceding times.”
– Niccoló Machiavelli
Top Links
Stock Trading February 9 2023 – AlphaTrends
In this quick video, Brian Shannon breaks down recent price action and lays out a few levels of interest to watch in the near term.
Stocks Will Keep Doing Pretty Well in 2023 – Fox Business News
In this clip, Ryan Detrick highlights some of the reasons he thinks stocks will continue higher in 2023.
All Quiet on the Bond Front – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines what Bond volatility could suggest for Stocks.
Deconstructing 10, 20 & 30 Year Stock Market Returns – A Wealth of Common Sense
Ben Carlson takes a look at how stocks have historically performed over a 10, 20, and 30-year holding period.
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Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/n2wKdwCGNp
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) February 9, 2023
#SPX, 1d
Those patterns…
Again, if bulls don't defend 4100 and let the price drop all the way to 4000, we'll have a repeat of this Bull Trap pattern for the forth time in a row. pic.twitter.com/hz0MVusT1L
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) February 9, 2023
At the moment, each of the last 2 daily OHLC bars fit "inside" the daily OHLC bar from 3 days ago & this isn't all that uncommon but when it happens right at a polarizing level (~4,100) you can order another popcorn.
(The fight this weekend wont be this good. Makhachev easy!) pic.twitter.com/uNrgdEC7pp
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) February 9, 2023
Bulls finally outnumbered Bears in this week's AAII Sentiment Poll, ending a record streak of 44 consecutive weeks of bearish sentiment. We haven't seen more Bulls than Bears in this poll since March 2022. $SPX pic.twitter.com/fPT2zTYQ4p
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 9, 2023
Stocks don't usually suffer after persistent pessimism fades. pic.twitter.com/hn7H6Fk1lV
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) February 9, 2023
The one-year range rank for the NYSE A/D Line has blown through the August peak. Breadth is still a bullish data point for this market. pic.twitter.com/lkL1XCN2Vr
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) February 9, 2023
Since I know how much everyone loves some TA on $VIX charts, here's a fun one… pic.twitter.com/5BKRLGQrJE
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) February 9, 2023
$DXY losing its battle with the 50 dma for now pic.twitter.com/YosrgyHtMZ
— David Rath (@DJwrath) February 9, 2023
Cloudfare $NET earnings, options pricing about a 12% move. Recent earnings have seen larger moves of -19%. +27% and -16%.
Comparing credit vs debit spreads, an atm +ps to the EM needs -6%, an atm -cs starts losing +5%, well inside EM:
More here: https://t.co/ftYvA80ZP6 pic.twitter.com/pg1DtbyJRu
— Options AI (@OptionsLearn) February 9, 2023
Just an example of perils of speculative investing … at one point in January, Bed Bath & Beyond was +153% over 2 days, but now -55% over past 2 days (worst drop ever)
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results; individual stock used for illustration] pic.twitter.com/u08kiGUiMw— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 9, 2023
Looks like $BTCUSD #Bitcoin is finally pulling back from the ⚓️VWAP from the 2022 high (never closed above it on weekly) daily inset shows it was a battle ground
Best place for potential support would be YTD ⚓️VWAP near 21Khttps://t.co/KTH0Ce0xRh pic.twitter.com/YpqGW1t70Z
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) February 9, 2023
The citrus fruit estimates may need to be adjusted.
? #inflation #orangejuice pic.twitter.com/SLZxOrSLJ4
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) February 9, 2023