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Todayβs Summary
Friday, February 9, 2024
Indices: Russell 2000 +1.53% | Nasdaq +1.01% | S&P 500 +0.57% | Dow -0.14%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Technology led, gaining +1.35%. Energy lagged, falling -1.54%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.81% to $76.84 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.45% $2,039 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher by +0.08% to $104.08.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +4.11% to a new 52-week high of $47,161. Ethereum gained +2.78% to $2,487
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +0.94% to 12.92.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.177%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
New highs expanded every day this week.
Defensives (Consumer Staples & Utilities) finished at new relative lows.
The S&P 500 has risen 1% or more for 5 weeks in a row (for only 12th time in 75 years).
Bull market behavior persists: https://t.co/lOwtstOhPp pic.twitter.com/vd2SHkqGT1
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) February 9, 2024
πTodayβs Chart of the Day was shared by Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche)
- The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high this week, gaining +1.37%. Itβs only had one negative week since the October lows, rising +22% in that time.
- This was the fifth straight weekly gain of +1% or more. Since 1950, Willie points out there have only been 11 other five-week streaks of +1% or more.
- The S&P 500 generally continued higher over the next few months, although 1956 and 1987 were notable exceptions.
The takeaway: The current rally is beginning to challenge historical extremes, but as the legendary technician Paul Montgomery once said, βThe most bullish thing the market can do is go up.β
Quote of the Day
βDonβt play whatβs there, play whatβs not there.β
β Miles Davis
Top Links
S&P 500 Hitting 5,000 Isnβt a Big Threshold Except Psychologically, Says Katie Stockton β CNBC
Katie Stockton shares her thoughts on the significance of SPX 5,000.
Stock Market & Bitcoin Analysis February 9 2024 β Alphatrends
Brian Shannon breaks down this weekβs price action and highlights some key levels to watch next week.
How to Trade Energyβs Seasonal Tailwind
Ian Culley points out that the next four months have historically been bullish for Crude Oil.
February Monthly Options Expiration: Bullish Weekly Tendency Fading
Jeff Hirsch looks at how stocks have historically performed around February options expiration (next week).
Beware the Hindenburg Omen! β StockCharts
David Keller examines a bearish indicator known as the Hindenburg Omen.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 just closed above 5000 for the first time in its 67 years of trading. π $SPY pic.twitter.com/INkLKhrh9G
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) February 9, 2024
S&P 500 Makes History π¨$SPX has remarkably traded green in 14 of the last 15 weeks for the first time since 1972 (yes, the first time in more than half a century) pic.twitter.com/Py25Jp0DBj
— Barchart (@Barchart) February 9, 2024
It took close to three years to go from 4k to 5k, but it is finally here.
Now what?
Looking at previous milestones (100, 1k, 2k, 3k, 4k) showed these levels did little to slow things down.
Higher 6 months later each time and up 8.0% on avg vs avg 6 month return of 4.4%. pic.twitter.com/X2T27II9Lm
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 9, 2024
Random:
Today marks just the 6th time in the history of the S&P 500 that the index finished a calendar week with trailing 15-week returns of >= 20% and at a new all-time high weekly close.
Ironically, we were in almost the exact same position exactly 3 years ago. pic.twitter.com/2ouxmK1jJ5
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) February 9, 2024
Rusty rallied nearly 5% from its Monday morning low pic.twitter.com/rt76mQ48eP
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT π (@MikeZaccardi) February 9, 2024
We've rallied >21% since we last had a 5% decline on a closing basis. That ranks as the 8th-highest, out of 74 instances, in the past 20 years:
July 2016 – 43.6% (Post Election/Falling yield curve)
October 2020 – 38.75% (Vaccine/re-opening)
March 2020 – 30.84% (COVID low)β¦ pic.twitter.com/IuJYX3hPoE— David Settle, CMT (@davidsettle42) February 9, 2024
A decent strategy for Feb 2024:
If $SPX > green trendline, hold
If $SPX < green trendline, reconsider pic.twitter.com/QQogloYDe0— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) February 9, 2024
"Since 1957, the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 have underperformed an equal-weighted index of
the remaining 490 stocks by 2.4% per year. But the last decade has been a very notable departure
from that trend, with the largest 10 outperforming by a massive 4.9% per year onβ¦ pic.twitter.com/p8PvLTOYjR— Meb Faber (@MebFaber) February 9, 2024
New highs expanding today. Seeing plenty of consolidations resolving higher. $XHB @CMTAssociation #trendfollowing #technicalanalysis pic.twitter.com/PSW298WE5e
— John Kolovos, CMT, CFA (@John_Kolovos) February 9, 2024
Copper is making new multi-month lows today. Do you think Bonds are going to randomly start to move in the opposite direction? Or do you think Bonds keep following Copper? And if Bonds collapse here, how do you think stocks are going to react? pic.twitter.com/qCwCehCnFV
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) February 9, 2024
The Marketwatch article about $NVDA vs. Chinese shares is a bit misleading.
But the market cap of $NVDA, $AAPL, $MSFT, and $META is actually larger than the entirety of the Chinese stock market.
Crazy to think about. pic.twitter.com/hBaVKYH3oP
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) February 9, 2024
The ultimate thanks for playing. pic.twitter.com/k5XvRcY8A5
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMTπ§ (@FusionptCapital) February 9, 2024