Sponsored By:
Today’s Summary
Monday, February 13th, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +1.60% | Russell 2000 +1.16% | S&P 500 +1.15% | Dow +1.11%
Sectors: 10 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Technology led, gaining +1.73%. Energy was the only sector that closed lower, slipping just -0.25%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.53% to $80.14 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.59% to $1,864 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.27% to $103.30.
Crypto: Bitcoin was unchanged at $21,790. Ethereum fell -0.61% to $1,506.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.705%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Performance results for simulation of Long S&P when above nine different Moving Averages and cash under the bed otherwise for the last 50 years. B&H = Buy & Hold. Second Column shows avg annual gain. 250DMA edges out 200DMA which is interesting in that 250DMA is a year. pic.twitter.com/E4O4kRSzJW
— Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) February 13, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136). The table shows the S&P 500’s performance over the past fifty years when it’s been above or below nine different moving averages (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, and 300-day.) The 200-day moving average gets all of the attention, but there’s nothing particularly special about 200-days. It’s a nice round number, and we all look at it, but it’s arbitrary. Wayne points out that the 250-day moving average has actually been a better indicator for the S&P 500 than the 200-day. The Third column shows that returns have been slightly better (+10.09% vs. +10.84%) and drawdowns have been less severe (-25.01% vs. -21.65%). Either way, the bulls can sleep easier knowing the S&P 500 is currently above all nine moving averages on this table.
Quote of the Day
“If a market doesn’t respond to important news in the way that it should, it is telling you something very important.”
– Larry Hite
Top Links
Bespoke takes a look at some of the recent improvements in market breadth.
Is This Euphoria? Doubt it. – All Star Charts
JC Parets shares his thoughts on the return of bullish sentiment.
5 Things To Look For To Confirm A New Bull Market – ValueTrend Wealth Management
In this video, Jay Kaeppel outlines five things that would help to confirm that a new bull market is underway.
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession – PringTurner
Martin Pring examines the conflicting signals between technical indicators and economic indicators.
Trendlines over Headlines – Exploring the Anchored VWAP with Brian Shanon – The Chart Report
In this week’s episode, Brian Shannon returns to the show to discuss his newest book, Maximum Trading Gains with Anchored VWAP. We explore why the Anchored VWAP is such a robust indicator, and Brian outlines a few strategies to profit from it.
Sponsored:
Expected moves, unusual options activity, earnings data, stock scanner, and much more!
No cost option tools from Options AI.
Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/vdzpbLwghW
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) February 13, 2023
Which way do we go? $DJIA $DJI $DIA pic.twitter.com/KCwLWJrCeO
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) February 13, 2023
All-time high for the cumulative advance-decline line of the Dow Industrial Index. Will price follow? pic.twitter.com/M2q451lIFR
— Louis Spector (@EastCoastCharts) February 13, 2023
Breadth thrust, breadth recovery, & nascent price momentum suggest that October 2022 was a 4-year-cycle bottom. pic.twitter.com/iWt7p6WRPa
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) February 13, 2023
All after major lows:
Using data going back to 2002, there have been five previous times S&P 100 stocks greater than the 150-day made a move similar to the one completed in 2023:
2003
2009
2012
2016
2020 pic.twitter.com/V1EOH2dbGn— Chris Ciovacco (@CiovaccoCapital) February 12, 2023
Bulls coming back … spread between @AAIISentiment bullish and bearish readings rose last week to highest since November 2021 pic.twitter.com/H4Np79Cq1n
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 13, 2023
Red Herring: Concerns regarding the #AAII sentiment survey of bulls are unfounded. 1) Returns drive sentiment, not vice-versa 2) Survey not good at predicting forward $SPX returns (t-stat = 0). Decile plot of data (bottom pane) show how bulls relate to forward $SPX returns. pic.twitter.com/lxmvuBkEZ8
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) February 13, 2023
Yo, Charts – Super Bowl Halftime Edition pic.twitter.com/Roaio6fjAU
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) February 13, 2023
10Y Treasury yield moved above its 100dma on Friday, still hanging out there today. pic.twitter.com/E7bgMKN7CJ
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) February 13, 2023
a fascinating chart showing the uncanny ability of members of Congress to beat the indices h/t @StuntPope pic.twitter.com/D0DmkLWIzK
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) February 13, 2023