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Todayโs Summary
Friday, February 16, 2024
Indices: Dow -0.37% | S&P 500 -0.48% | Nasdaq 100 -0.90% | Russell 2000 -1.39%ย
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Materials led, gaining +0.53%. Communications lagged, falling -1.56%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.12% to $78.46 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.46% $2,024 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was flat atย $104.28.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +0.42% to $52,161. Ethereum fell –0.78% to $2,804.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +1.79% to 14.25.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.283%.
Here areย the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Is the market stretched? Somewhat.
Can it get even more so? Sure.$SPX pic.twitter.com/ZXwbcyp4e8— Brian G (@alphacharts) February 16, 2024
๐ย Todayโs Chart of the Day was shared by Brian G (@alphacharts).
- The S&P 500 is beginning to stray from its long-term moving average. Itโs up more thanย +10%ย from its 10-month moving average โ the most stretched since July โ23.
- While the S&P 500 is slightly stretched, Brian points out that it can stretch even further before mean reversion inevitably occurs.
- Brian notes:ย โAn overstretched market can go sideways (with internal rotation) while the MA catches up. Like RSI, persistently overstretched markets are a sign of a strong bull market. The MA is being pulled higher.โ
The takeaway: The S&P 500 is getting stretched from its long-term moving average, but thatโs typical bull market behavior. Mean reversion is inevitable, but the index could move higher and stretch even further before that happens.
Quote of the Day
โMy system in life is to figure out what’s really stupid and then avoid it. It doesn’t make me popular, but it prevents a lot of trouble.โ
โ Charlie Munger
Top Links
Asset Class and Stock Performance Since 10/27/23 – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the winners and losers since the October ’23 low.
Stock Market Video Analysis for Week Ending February 16, 2024 – Alphatrends
Brian Shannon analyzes this week’s price action and identifies some key levels to watch next week.
Up 7 of Last 12 After Presidents’ Day but Still Weak Long Term – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how stocks have historically performed after Presidents’ Day weekend.
Time to Short Apple? – All Star Charts
JC Parets highlights the recent weakness in $AAPL.
Natural Gas Crashes Into Historic 25-Year Price Support – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble looks at the crash in Nat Gas prices.
Top Tweets
โ ๏ธFinal S&P 500 Stocks Weekly Heat Map
๐ข $UBER +10.6%
๐ข $WFC +8%
๐ข $AMAT +7.4%
๐ข $GE +7.1%
๐ข $LLY +5.7%
๐ข $NFLX +4%
๐ข $TSLA +3.3%
๐ข $BAC +3.1%๐ด $ADBE -12.8%
๐ด $ANET -7.3%
๐ด $MU -7.1%
๐ด $GOOGL -5.7%
๐ด $DE -5.4%
๐ด $ORCL -4.6%
๐ด $MSFT -3.9%
๐ด $AAPL -3.6%$SPYโฆ pic.twitter.com/mCqDpdOzN1— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) February 16, 2024
Mega-cap tech weighed a bit this week
Smalls, ex-US outperformed pic.twitter.com/muIwbfgwYY
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ๐ (@MikeZaccardi) February 16, 2024
The divergence in the NYSE Advance Decline Line is no longer pic.twitter.com/LobdmRyeHD
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) February 16, 2024
Healthcare ETF $XLV ripping to new all-time highs today. pic.twitter.com/fs0u77JRlj
— Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades) February 16, 2024
Even the all-world ex US ETF $CWI is breaking out now… pic.twitter.com/xfctqwpkcT
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) February 16, 2024
Japan makes it back to its previous highs…from 1989.
๐ฏ๐ต$NKY pic.twitter.com/5HK6SHboT4
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) February 16, 2024
"I wouldn't have believed it unless I checked but Toyota has outperformed Tesla in the last 3 years".
H/T @lhamtil pic.twitter.com/cT5lt48Tqg
— Koyfin (@KoyfinCharts) February 16, 2024
$TSLA H&S bottom? (Potential island bottom, basis pre-market trading.) pic.twitter.com/InlKlWJNMw
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) February 16, 2024
Oil is closing back above the AVWAP from the 2022 highs. $USO $CL_F pic.twitter.com/lFhpO21810
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA (@MichaelNaussCMT) February 16, 2024
Oil Refiners are going out at new all-time highs trying to complete this massive base. These have been the only winners in Oil & Gas, so a fresh breakout would probably say a lot for the space. pic.twitter.com/npKIxeiLyf
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) February 16, 2024
$SMCI has a 1.6% weight in the Russell 2000 $IWM. Thatโs the largest weight a companyโs ever had in the index. ht @Todd_Sohn for helping run the data pic.twitter.com/7r6hkZr0mA
— Athanasios Psarofagis (@psarofagis) February 16, 2024
For the archives: pic.twitter.com/bdhL1z1SGa
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) February 17, 2024
$SMCI with the mother-of-all shooting stars on the weekly chart. ๐ pic.twitter.com/uyrqEomzae
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) February 16, 2024
Technically speaking it hit their price target.$SMCI $BAC pic.twitter.com/7NSJPZrfHg
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT๐ง (@FusionptCapital) February 16, 2024