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Today’s Summary
Monday, February 27th, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.74% | Russell 2000 +0.31% | S&P 500 +0.31% | Dow +0.22%
Sectors: 7 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, gaining +1.24%. Utilities lagged, dropping -0.68%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.84% to $75.68 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.43% to $1,825 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -0.59% to $104.64.
Crypto: Bitcoin inched lower by -0.29% to $23,493. Ethereum fell -0.47% to $1,634.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched lower to 3.916%
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
You have to squint to see it, but that's a 35% gain over the last four trading days in nat gas. pic.twitter.com/5C0j0WMwQ3
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) February 27, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Bespoke (@bespokeinvest). Natural Gas has been falling like a knife over the past six months, dropping as much as 80% from its August highs. However Bespoke points out that it has rebounded sharply over the past four sessions. Natural Gas futures are up more than 38% from Wednesday’s intraday low thru today’s close (31% on a closing basis). Natural Gas has earned the nickname ‘the widow maker’ among traders due to its violent price swings. It’s still in a nasty downtrend, but this sharp reversal suggests that a short-term low has been established, and we could see prices continue to mean revert toward the 50-day moving average in the coming weeks.
Quote of the Day
“A mistake is when you don’t follow your rules. If you don’t have rules in trading, everything you do is a mistake.”
– Dr. Van K. Tharp
Top Links
Jeff Hirsch examines how the major indices have historically performed on the last trading day of February.
It’s a Material World – All Star Charts
JC Parets takes a look at the Materials sector.
Calmness in Chaos Featuring Mel Stone and Joe Fahmy
In this new podcast, Joe Fahmy and Mel Stone discuss recent price action and unusual options flow.
Here’s a good Twitter thread with some powerful visuals that every investor should keep in mind,
Trendlines over Headlines – Making Sense of the Markets with Petr Pinkhasov – The Chart Report
In this week’s episode of Trendlines over Headlines, we sat down with Petr Pinkhasov of Investor Charts to discuss the Major Indexes, Energy Stocks, the US Dollar, Crypto, and more.
Top Tweets
Daily Market Mood: Mixed
1. Stocks up
2. Volume anemic
3. Bonds up, yields down
4. Dollar’s worst day since Feb 3
5. $SPX 200 DMA holdsThe last point is important.
If support continues to hold, a sideways trend is likely the worst case scenario 1H 2023.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) February 27, 2023
#SPX and its 200d MA pic.twitter.com/yJ6jT4Mphh
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) February 27, 2023
March and April historically are two of the better months for the S&P 500.
Even including the 12% drop in 2020, March is still up on avg the past 10 yrs.
Lastly, these two months are even better in pre-election years. pic.twitter.com/uKQytwNHaR
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 27, 2023
A 60/40 Portfolio of US stocks/bonds is currently in a 14-month drawdown, 14% below its all-time high. This is the longest drawdown for a 60/40 portfolio since the financial crisis (37 months) and before that the aftermath of the dot-com bubble (43 months). pic.twitter.com/jXBTJiaIlH
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) February 27, 2023
Yes, markets have taken a tumble recently?
– SPX down ~-5% Since 2/2
– As investors have been "data reactive"
– But to contextualize the "risk on" nature of this year
– Take a look at Sector Performance through 2/27
– In 2022 vs 2023
– The change in leadership is a full 180
? pic.twitter.com/HppOFTMDA6— Matt Cerminaro (@mattcerminaro) February 27, 2023
$XLV Healthcare down 9 straight weeks through last week…
…the longest wkly losing streak in its history (1998).
Only 2 weeks during the streak have been worse than 1%.
Slow and steady… pic.twitter.com/j43Rnm1OCK
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) February 27, 2023
Some potentially good news for stock bulls–$DXY put in an afternoon high near resistance and then reversed, printing a DeMark 9 sell setup.
If this gets follow-through and confirms lower tomorrow it should give stocks a boost. pic.twitter.com/5fkVRTd0SS
— Andrew Moss, CMT (@Andy__Moss) February 27, 2023
Very important for $SPX and $NDX for $TNX to stay under 4.00. pic.twitter.com/OXWfEoxkoD
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) February 27, 2023
this is the most #bullish week of the year for Bitcoin $BTCUSD – sounds crazy I know but in the past 12 years, this week has averaged a 36.6% return… #seasonality pic.twitter.com/F0LgWya18s
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) February 27, 2023