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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, February 28th, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.04% | Nasdaq 100 -0.13% | S&P 500 -0.30% | Dow -0.71%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Materials led, gaining +0.45%. Utilities lagged, dropping -1.75%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.81% to $77.05 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.65% to $1,837 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained +0.30% to $104.96.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.40% to $23,165. Ethereum fell -1.54% to $1,610.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched higher to 3.924%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared in a note by Scott Brown (@scottcharts). The S&P 500 fell 2.61% in February, however, it spent the entire month above its 200-day moving average. As of today’s close, the index has spent 25 consecutive days above its 200-day moving average. Scott points out that this is could be evidence that the bear market lows are in the rearview mirror. In the note, he explained: “Going back to 1950, there are no instances where the S&P 500 reached bear market territory (down 20%), rebounded above its 200-DMA for at least one month, and went on to make new lows.”
Quote of the Day
“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes.”
– Jesse Livermore
Top Links
The February Hangover is Nearly Over – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick looks at how stocks have historically performed in March and April.
Bearish and Bullish Momentum Ranges – Andrew Thrasher
Andrew Thrasher outlines a systematic approach to analyzing momentum.
Two Market Themes from February – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison highlights some noteworthy charts to keep an eye on.
Tech Relative Strength Still Negative – Bespoke
Bespoke examines the Tech sector’s performance relative to the broader market.
First Trading Day of March up 69.6% of the Time – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch takes a look at how the major indices have historically performed on the first trading day in March.
Top Tweets
*S&P 500 FEBRUARY MONTHLY HEAT MAP $SPY $SPX $ES_F ???? pic.twitter.com/LZbriq9J3u
— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) February 28, 2023
#ES_F, monthly
February is over.
The ES hasn't been able to close above the 4150 level for the straight 10 months now….
RESISTANCE pic.twitter.com/E2xGqeb2eo
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) February 28, 2023
Anytime the AAII crowd gets net bullish, the market hits them on the head with a rubber hammer. pic.twitter.com/IX7LZRFGwE
— Brian G (@alphacharts) February 28, 2023
Not just some random level we're dealing with here pic.twitter.com/bIUfIfdGgx
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) February 28, 2023
The message from this chart: be careful confusing mean reversion and trend change.
Big outperformance of Growth over Value to start 2023, but we've rallied right to resistance (200 DMA) and stalled. Though it is notable to see Growth hold in so well despite the surge in yields? pic.twitter.com/nlHziPb4jr— Cameron Dawson (@CameronDawson) February 28, 2023
10-yr yield is on the doorstep of 4%. Crossing over would put us back at levels not seen since early Nov, just before Oct CPI came in below estimates. pic.twitter.com/k2JRZiONaT
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) February 28, 2023
Is this rates? @StrategasRP pic.twitter.com/pS3iYwG2zW
— Chris Verrone (@verrone_chris) February 28, 2023
Record streak without a new high for the Bond AGG continues. Just about 2x the prior record now. pic.twitter.com/fX4DSWsh7E
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) February 28, 2023
Speculators have lost interest in Silver. Open interest is lowest in nine years as traders have abandon the industrial/semi-precious metal $SLV $SI_F pic.twitter.com/BajpKbq7Jo
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) February 28, 2023
If we're talking dislocation lets not forget the market was so f*cked up that something called the "Island Boys" showed up and started doing single stock Cameo's right before the lights went out. https://t.co/xSvIRDAVw4
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) February 28, 2023