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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, March 1st, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.08% | Dow +0.02% | S&P 500 -0.47% | Nasdaq 100 -0.86%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +1.97%. Utilities lagged for the third straight session, dropping -1.65%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.83% to $77.69 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.47% to $1,845 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped -0.54% to $104.38.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.71% to $23,532. Ethereum gained +3.18% to $1,656.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a three-month high of 3.996%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The Dow touching new lows is not a great look pic.twitter.com/uihMIZLEMS
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) March 1, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Austin Harrison (@meanstoatrend). The Dow initially led the rebound off the October lows. However, it stalled out in November, and it’s been relatively weak ever since. It’s the only major index that’s in negative territory year-to-date, closing at a fresh three-month low yesterday. Austin points out that it just broke below its December low. This triggers an old-school warning sign known as the December Low Indicator. This indicator was created in the 1970s by Forbes Columnist, Lucien Hooper. He found that full-year returns are often weak when the Dow violates its December low on a closing basis within the first quarter of a new year. It previously triggered last year, and we all know how the rest of 2022 played out…Will the December Low Indicator matter again in 2023?
Quote of the Day
“Whenever you find the key to the market, they change the locks.”
– Lucien Hooper
Top Links
Stocks are Teetering – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss gives an update on price action across the markets so far this week.
NASDAQ New High/New Low Ratio and Risk – StockCharts.com
Mish Schneider takes a look at Nasdaq breadth.
Up or Down Here’s How to Profit From the Pound – All Star Charts
Ian Culley lays out some key levels to watch on the British Pound.
Natural Gas Price Bottom? Let’s Review The Measured Move Setup – See it Market
James Barteloni uses measured moves to analyze Natural Gas.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 fell 0.47% on the first day of March. It was the 7th decline in the last 9 trading days. The S&P 500 is trading below the 50-day MA but is narrowly above the 200-day MA. This could be another inflection point for #stocks. pic.twitter.com/PxzWSUPdof
— Cetera Investment Management (@ceteraIM) March 1, 2023
How many technicians are going to flip to being super bearish when we break down from the 200-day moving average? pic.twitter.com/8Ar8XWys1m
— Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA (@brettvillaume) March 1, 2023
What's the 200-day SMA & EMA telling everyone about where price is headed next?
Someone tell me, because it isn't telling me anything! pic.twitter.com/TgOmNPAEwT
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) March 1, 2023
$SPX Chart Update:
Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE including your dog, blind grandmom, dead goldfish, and your #2 pencil on your desk knows about the 200 daily moving avg.
Nothing more needs to be said right now.
We either bounce off this bigly or we breach through this bigly.. pic.twitter.com/WCAZhJg08g
— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) March 1, 2023
Here's what this year looks like compared with the average year for the S&P 500 so far.
Also, up 3.4% YTD as of end of Feb vs avg yr up 1.0% at this time.
When up >3%? Rest of yr higher 11 of past 12 times.
In fact, final 10 mos up 12.3% vs. avg year final 10 mos gain of 7.9%. pic.twitter.com/I9NlwtaVQ8
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 1, 2023
Gut-wrenching choppiness recently??
– But despite S&P 500 swings since June
– Internals have strengthened immensely
– Only 12.5% of SPX were >200D on 6/17/22
– Now 57.7% >200D
– so ~45% more members now >200DThis time, things are different under the hood?
??? pic.twitter.com/2XBPsveM9q— Matt Cerminaro (@mattcerminaro) March 1, 2023
The Hang Seng Index can be used as a bellwether for markets worldwide. If the gain in Hang Seng holds, that would be a bullish indicant for markets worldwide. If the low is violated, that would suggest continued decline in other markets as well. pic.twitter.com/CQh1Is9vod
— Milton W Berg CFA (@BergMilton) March 1, 2023
That former resistance has turned into support the past 4 months. Is that support for good? Or just for now? $CL_F pic.twitter.com/hMyzllAKAP
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) March 1, 2023
ESG ETFs' best days may be behind them as market share slips to 1.5% and IMO may never grow beyond that. Political baggage one reason, but bigger one is the dismal returns over past 2yrs. Here's 10 most popular ESG ETFs vs benchmarks. Nine lag, and some lag a lot eg $ESGU $ESGV pic.twitter.com/0oweaLX62o
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 1, 2023
10-year Treasury yields touch 4% pic.twitter.com/zUjXuaPpgD
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) March 1, 2023
6-month treasury yield continues to surge, hitting 5.17% for the first time since 2007. As a reminder the S&P 500 earnings yield is 5% which means the 6-month treasury is offering a superior yield and with ALMOST no risk. pic.twitter.com/5S8UT1gcoH
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 1, 2023
If he's capable of keeping his crypto in cold storage but cannot figure out how to open a TreasuryDirect account when 6-month t-bills are yielding 5.14%, then that's a dealbreaker ladies.
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) March 1, 2023