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Today’s Summary
Thursday, March 2nd, 2023
Indices: Dow +1.05% | Nasdaq 100 +0.89% | S&P 500 +0.76% | Russell 2000 +0.22%
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Utilities led, gaining +1.89%. Financials lagged, falling -0.48%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.60% to $78.16 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.27% to $1,841 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.57% to $104.96.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.71% to $23,466. Ethereum fell -1.04% to $1,648.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a three-month high of 4.062%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
This comment may sound ridiculous as early as tomorrow’s open BUT, FWIW, today price answered the bell exactly at the price and at the moment it needed to. Might as well enjoy the moment. pic.twitter.com/n2Ti556Awi
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) March 2, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel). The battle between the S&P 500 and its 200-day moving average has attracted more spectators than the Super Bowl. You’re probably sick of hearing about the 200-DMA by now, but the market continues to prove that it matters. After spending 27 consecutive days above the 200-DMA, The S&P 500 gapped below it at the open this morning. However, Jay points out that buyers showed up right where they need to. This is an encouraging change of character considering the 200-DMA acted as resistance numerous times last year.
Quote of the Day
“If they don’t scare you out,
they will wear you out.”
– Brian Shannon
Top Links
March 2023 Almanac: Even Better in Pre-Election Years – Alamanc Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how stocks have historically performed in March of Pre-Election years.
Sentiment Back to Bearish – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Are DAX (Germany) and CAC-40 (France) Indices About To Send Big Messages to Investors? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that France and Germany are at key inflection points.
Global Industrials are Where Investors Should Spend Their Time and Capital, Says Strategas’ Chris Verrone – CNBC
Chris Verrone shares his perspective on the continued rise in yields, and its potential impact on stocks.
Global Benchmarks Pave the Way for Rising US Yields – All Star Charts
Ian Culley points out that global yields are breaking out ahead of US yields.
Top Tweets
So.
The S&P 500 has tested its 200-day moving average two days in a row…and bounced off of it both days.
First time that's happened since May 2018.
(and a decent sign that ppl still think there's value in this market)
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) March 2, 2023
The fact that the intraday $SPX chart looks like this on the same day that 10- and 30-year yields topped 4% says an awful lot. pic.twitter.com/mi2UVUHcpr
— Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) March 2, 2023
#NQ_F, 1d
NQ and its 200d MA pic.twitter.com/EKcnwOUdRO
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) March 2, 2023
In the history of $QQQ, the only previous times monthly momentum completed an "oversold A to recovery B" move was after the 2002 major low and after the 2009 major low in the S&P 500 Index. A similar A to B move appears on the 2023 chart. Caveat: It is only March 2. pic.twitter.com/6NrIttq2ln
— Chris Ciovacco (@CiovaccoCapital) March 2, 2023
Look at the Google Trends for "golden cross" it peaked right with the actual cross AND the exact high of the move$SPY don 22.04 pts or 5.3% since that golden cross frenzy
"what's obvious, is obviously wrong" ~ Joe Granville pic.twitter.com/Qom3GyKMEH
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) March 2, 2023
Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has bottomed for the year on March 13th.
Thank you to 2003, 2009, and 2020 for this one. pic.twitter.com/FnjqwZsux9
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 2, 2023
Individual investors aren't waiting around to see what happens next.
Just three weeks removed from the most bulls in over a year, the AAII survey now shows nearly twice as many bears as bulls. pic.twitter.com/4x5vKphnDO
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) March 2, 2023
Bears lost the relative performance of staples $XLP yesterday. Ask yourself, "In what environment would I expect staples to meaningfully underperform"? pic.twitter.com/gwHwvGBv2h
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) March 2, 2023
$TSLA has strong support near $156 based on the cloud model, both on the daily (short-term) and monthly (long-term) charts #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/C9VctSElOa
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) March 2, 2023
Ahh….yes, finance pic.twitter.com/sSZ14HCejY
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) March 2, 2023