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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, March 3rd, 2020
Indices: US stocks closed lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 786 points or 2.94%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 2.81% and 2.99%, respectively. The Russell 2000 wasn’t as weak as the other major indices but still fell 2.13%.
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Real Estate led, but still slipped 0.08%. Technology lagged, falling 3.80%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell 0.88% to $47.10 per barrel. Gold futures surged 3.23% to $1,642 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index moved lower by 0.23%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 1.02%, after briefly falling below 1% for the first time.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Last week the panic in Equities/VIX, now the final panic move in Rates. Disorderly and breaking all historic records (30yr Real < 0%, 2yr RSI 9). The 10yr chart projected to 0.883% and today's low was 0.9043. Maybe one more push but getting very very ripe. $TY_F $TLT pic.twitter.com/hZ2zKdSEZT
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 3, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Macro Charts (@MacroCharts). It’s a daily bar chart of the US 10-year Treasury yield. In our Chart of the Day a couple of weeks ago, we highlighted the fact that the US 10-year Treasury Bond was attempting to break above a key resistance level, which we said would “likely send the yield on the 10-year to fresh all-time lows.” Sure enough, the 10-year Bond broke out above that resistance level, and the 10-year yield tumbled to record lows. Today, the yield on the 10-year fell below 1% for the first time ever. The speed at which yields have dropped over the past few days has been remarkable. In fact, this has been the largest 5-day decline for the 10-year yield going back to the start of our data in 1980. Macro Charts emphasizes that the move in yields is “breaking all historic records.” He adds that the 10-year yield is approaching his downside objective and suggests that yields could be due for some mean reversion or a bounce in the near-term.
Quote of the Day
“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”
– Nelson Mandela (Former President of South Africa)
Top Links
S&P 500 Only in Stage Two of Three-Stage Sell-off, Oppenheimer Analyst Says – CNBC
Ari Wald of Oppenheimer discusses the possibility that stocks will retest last week’s lows and what to watch for if they do.
Which Stocks are We Buying? – All Star Charts
JC Parets highlights the relative strength in Emerging Markets and explains why he thinks Caterpillar ($CAT) is a good buy here.
With Inside Weeks, We Need Just A Tad More Patience – Talk Markets
Michele Schneider takes a look at what she calls the “Economic Modern Family” of ETFs, including $IWM, $IYT, $XRT, $SMH, $IBB, and $KRE. She emphasizes that the broader market needs these ETFs to hold above last week’s lows.
Bloomberg Options Action 3-3-20 – Bloomberg
In this clip from Bloomberg, Christian Fromhertz of Tribeca Trade Group shares his thoughts on the break out in Bonds and lays out an options trade on Netflix ($NFLX).
We Might Need a Retest – The Reformed Broker
Michael Batnick and Josh Brown debate several hot topics, including whether or not the market needs to retest last week’s lows.
Top 10 Tweets
Widest 7-day intraday ranges in S&P 500 futures history:
October 1987
September 2001
July 2002
October 2002
October – December 2008
January 2009
March 2009
August 2011Today
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) March 3, 2020
The S&P 500 rising 2+% from a 3-month low has marked several correction lows but as in '98, '11, '15, those lows were tested.
Need to take things one day at at time. Hopefully panic selling is behind us but it's not in stone just yet. pic.twitter.com/QsC0nDMcsV
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) March 3, 2020
Amazing to see China's equity ETF $ASHR above its 50-DMA and rising while the rest of the world is basically as oversold as it gets. https://t.co/H4p1RcGQzV pic.twitter.com/Ot5cLZBDWe
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 3, 2020
Every index around the world is negative year to date.
The Shanghai Shenzhen Index is down the least… ? pic.twitter.com/RVzZXok71m
— Stocktwits (@Stocktwits) March 3, 2020
Gold Relative to S&P 500 – Gold has been good on an absolute basis, but it is now picking up on a relative basis (vs. the S&P 500), too. See prior posts for other gold comments. pic.twitter.com/1AvNaSGoxl
— Wolfe Daily Howl (@WolfeDailyHowl) March 3, 2020
$GDX daily candlestick chart illustrating the failed breakout last Monday which led to a failed breakdown on Friday. #Gold miners ripping hard up 8% today. "From failed moves come fast moves". #metals #mining pic.twitter.com/DCNRJA7ncZ
— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) March 3, 2020
It happened! The US 10-year Treasury #yield has fallen to below 1% for the first time ever! pic.twitter.com/MPX3ERFtRN
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) March 3, 2020
Well done to those who nailed the bond rally! I was not expecting the higher high (ouch) but the $TLT long bond ETF is now back to an interesting technical point as it rallies back to a trend line joining the 2012, 2015, 2016 highs WITH weekly RSI negatively diverging. Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/sVs9tvsbrl
— Robert Sluymer (@rsluymer) March 3, 2020
$TLT #Rates — TLT in peak "zone"? pic.twitter.com/HukWDqPyLW
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) March 3, 2020
2 stocks on the S&P 500 made new highs today – that’s infinitely more than yesterday. pic.twitter.com/by1Q9xtXFC
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) March 3, 2020