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Todayโs Summary
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Indices: Russell 2000 -0.99% | S&P 500 -1.02% | Dow -1.04% | Nasdaq -1.80%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +0.74%. Technology lagged, falling -2.46%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.75% to $78.15 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.73% to an all-time high of $2,142 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index ticked lower by -0.06% to $103.77.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -6.68% to $63,796. Ethereum fell -2.04% to $3,560.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +7.20% to 14.45.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.154%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The Yellow Metal โฆ#Gold $GDX @StrategasRP @strategasasset pic.twitter.com/VwDObsNpRA
— Chris Verrone (@verrone_chris) March 5, 2024
๐ Todayโs Chart of the Day was shared by Chris Verrone (@verrone_chris).
- Gold is trading at a record high of $2,142/oz, after surging nearly +5% in the past four days. Itโs received far less attention than Bitcoin despite the Gold market being several times larger than the entire Crypto market.
- RSI printed its most โoverboughtโ reading in two years today. but, Chris maintains a price target of $2,400-$2,600/oz., noting โ โvery overboughtโ is usually a signature of a solid/developing trend, as seen in 2019/2020.
- Many have given up on the yellow metal after fumbling four breakouts in the past four years and notably underperforming other risk assets. However, the lack of enthusiasm for Gold could work in its favor this time.
The takeaway: Gold is very โoverboughtโ after thrusting to record highs recently. As legendary technician Alan Shaw once said โ โThe most bullish thing a market can do is get overbought and stay that way.โ
Quote of the Day
โGold, much more so than any other commodity, is about sentiment and psychology.โ
โ Peter Lynch
Top Links
Typical March Performance: Second Half Better โ Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how the major indices have historically performed in March.
March Market Outlook โ Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison highlights some key developments to watch in March.
Gold Hits All-Time Highs โ All Star ChartsJC Parets examines the breakout in Gold.
Technical Tuesdays ๐ with The Chart ReportHereโs the recording of our Twitter spaces from earlier today, in case you missed it.
Top Tweets
Looking at historical bull market analogs, we can see that after a slow start in 2023, the S&P 500 has now entered the zone of a typical bull market. ๐งต pic.twitter.com/RHsNZp5YNf
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) March 5, 2024
$AAPL #AAPL Absolute waterfall over the last 3 days. pic.twitter.com/auNSZEiSk3
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) March 5, 2024
$IWM vs. $AAPL pic.twitter.com/GUXsDEXCVC
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) March 5, 2024
Current drawdowns:$AAPL -14%
US Small Caps $VB -8% pic.twitter.com/2I8DKhm5wn— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ๐ (@MikeZaccardi) March 5, 2024
Yo, Charts – pic.twitter.com/DMQFSskUcj
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) March 5, 2024
Semiconductors are now over 10% of S&P 500 weight, up from 2% a decade ago and within shouting distance of Software as the most influential group within the benchmark. Tech ETF flows reflect this desire for exposure and score as the most aggressive area in our work too. pic.twitter.com/xeIxHz4v7x
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) March 5, 2024
Interesting $BKX pic.twitter.com/B0z4M8NNUz
— Michael Kahn, CMT (@mnkahn) March 5, 2024
$KBE (banks) – good look here pic.twitter.com/bPa0jXdtTr
— Jamie Saettele, CMT (@JamieSaettele) March 5, 2024
$gld likes it โDojil style. Big move from $189 to $198 gave ways to manage it today. #1 trim some. #2 create call spreads from straight calls. #3 roll up to higher calls. Or take it off. *but* if u take it all off u can lose track of it, Before the next move higher. pic.twitter.com/jTrHYiQwEq
— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3) March 5, 2024
Gold prices surpassed $2,125 and are at record highs. Notice the resilience despite strength in USD and real Treasury yields–last time we had this currency & yield strength, gold was at $1,925 (Aug 2023) and $2,000 (Dec 2023). pic.twitter.com/7mboWgG096
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) March 5, 2024
$GLD is quietly breakingout following on the back of #Bitcoin strength, is silver the laggard on verge of catching-up? pic.twitter.com/xItiFa6D5t
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) March 5, 2024
Today is the fourth time this year that #Bitcoin hit a 52-week high intraday and then sold off at least 5% from that peak. pic.twitter.com/IpCY8GW8OF
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 5, 2024
Bitcoin hasn't seen a 5% bearish engulfing candle at a multi-year high since 2017.
Tiny sample but consistently led to some short-term downside. pic.twitter.com/eNemQQ2zHa
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) March 5, 2024
We aren't there yet, but remember how the the stock market does the 3 months before the election tends to be quite accurate at predicting the winner.
If higher ==> better for the incumbent party and vice versa if lower.
This has been accurate 20 out of 24 times. pic.twitter.com/V3LPWYPqVk
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 5, 2024