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Todayβs Summary
|Friday, March 8, 2024
Indices: Russell 2000 β0.10% | Dow -0.18% | S&P 500 -0.65% | Nasdaq 100 -1.53%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining +1.18%. Technology lagged, falling -1.49%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -1.17% to $78.01 per barrel. Gold futures rose for the seventh day, gaining +0.94% to an all-time high of $2,186 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched lower by -0.06% to $102.74.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +2.01% to $68,285. Ethereum gained +0.44% to a two-year high of $3,893.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +2.08% to 14.73.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched lower to 4.079%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Spent some time reviewing long-term history of #AAII signals, particularly when bullish reading > 50%. Initial takeaways:
1. This has happened 11 times since the 2009 low.
2. A major top has occurred only 2 times out of those 11.
3. The other 9 times were mid-stage bull markets. pic.twitter.com/kofFCV22tC— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) March 8, 2024
Todayβs Chart of the Day was shared by David Keller (@DKellerCMT).
- Investors feel much more optimistic now than at the end of October, thanks to a +24.4% rally in the S&P 500.
- According to the AAII Sentiment Survey, the percentage of bulls has doubled from 23.4% at the end of October to 51.7% this week.
- David points out that this is the 11th time bulls have exceeded 50% since the 2009 low. Three of them have occurred in the past year! Only 2 of the 11 were significant tops, while the other 9 occurred mid-cycle.
The takeaway: Sentiment matters at extremes, but itβs more of a condition than a signal. Humphrey B. Neill once said it best β βThe public is often right during the trends, but wrong at both ends.β
Quote of the Day
βBull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.β
β Sir John Templeton
Top Links
Semis Drop the Mic β Bespoke
Bespoke examines the unusually strong rally in Semiconductors ($SOX).
Gold & Bitcoin Shine While Large Cap Tech is Heavy β Trade Risk
Evan Medeiros breaks down this weekβs price action.
Historic Base Breakout Coming β All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that Bitcoin is resolving out of a multi-year base again.
Who Does the Market Want to Win the Election? β LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist looks at how elections impact the S&P 500 and vice versa.
Will it End Badly? β The Compound and Friends
Todd Sohn joins Josh Brown and Michael Batnick to discuss ETFs, $NVDA, Small Caps, and more.
Top Tweets
A historic 19-week move, bears turning into mega bulls, and now a weekly doji on the S&P 500.
Dojis can be signs of indecision and many times can mark turning points.
Not end of the world stuff, but be aware being bullish is getting quite crowded. pic.twitter.com/BzsNVSqg7u
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 8, 2024
$VIX highest weekly settle since mid-Q4 2023 pic.twitter.com/LkkAY7IuIm
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT π (@MikeZaccardi) March 8, 2024
New highs faded into the market top in 2000. They are growing now.
% of SPX Hitting Nee Highs: pic.twitter.com/EFho9v8e0G
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) March 8, 2024
The $SPX sectors are still circling between Leading and Weakening. They are still, somehow, keeping safe and out of the Lagging box. pic.twitter.com/pnfAXldxER
— Ryan Redfern, CMT (@RyanRedfernCMT) March 8, 2024
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hasn't traded within 3% of its 50-day moving average since early November. pic.twitter.com/3l2x0TgpRC
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 8, 2024
$AAPL is at a key proving ground near $170 – short-term oversold conditions are enhanced by a counter-trend signal from @DeMarkAnalytics, supporting stabilization, but long-term indicators suggest AAPL's wide range is distributive (i.e., a double-top) @fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/8ycAHbNYEr
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) March 8, 2024
That's quite a candlestick that $NVDA is printing on a Friday afternoon π³π pic.twitter.com/2crWswKA6H
— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) March 8, 2024
Wow, Nvidia's 10% intraday decline (peak-to-trough) represents a decline in value of a quarter of a trillion dollars in a few hours
These numbers are getting very large $NVDA pic.twitter.com/tX4l74kqMZ
— Jack Farley (@JackFarley96) March 8, 2024
$XLRE Weekly. While I'm sure many are chatting about the NVDA reversal today, real estate has formed a beautiful multi-year base and could be on the verge of a major breakout. π€« pic.twitter.com/jwsMq0CvEe
— Brian G (@alphacharts) March 8, 2024
$FXI $HSI Inverse head and shoulders on the weekly candle chart. pic.twitter.com/BsqtpFRCl8
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) March 8, 2024
We Have a (dollar denominated) Breakout in #GOLD
Prices found support at prior resistance
The weekly chart captures the move nicely.
It's a classic "test and run"#commodities pic.twitter.com/McQwi9FGmB
— Jake Hanley, CMT (@MacroView_Jake) March 8, 2024
For a dinosaur, $GE is doing pretty well. pic.twitter.com/i9FEgU6Xzy
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) March 8, 2024