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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, March 10th, 2020
Indices: US stocks rebounded in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging 1,167 points or 4.89%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq soared 4.94% and 4.95%, respectively. The Russell 2000 underperformed the other major indices but still gained 2.85%.
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Technology led, jumping 6.67%. Utilities lagged but still rose 0.93%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rallied 15.24% to $34.85 per barrel, after having one of the worst days in history yesterday. Gold futures dropped 1.87% to $1,649 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index had its best day since Brexit in 2016, soaring 1.67%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield moved higher to 0.75%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Stocks to bonds ratio has dropped significantly, resulting in an oversold condition similar to previous bounces over the last year. Could see a snapback rally with a bounce in stocks/pullback in bonds but I believe that would be short-lived. $SPX $SPY $TLT pic.twitter.com/eVh57Br2MD
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) March 10, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by David Keller (@DKellerCMT). It’s a chart of the stocks to bonds ratio ($SPY/TLT), over the past three years. When the ratio is falling, as it has been over the past few weeks, it means that stocks are underperforming bonds and visa versa. The recent sell-off in stocks and the surge in bonds has forced this ratio to its lowest level since 2016. As David points out, the ratio is now oversold and extremely stretched from both its short-term and long-term moving averages. He adds that the ratio “could see a snapback rally with a bounce in stocks and a pullback in bonds.” However, the ratio is currently in a downtrend, indicating that any outperformance from stocks relative to bonds in the near-term would likely be temporary.
Quote of the Day
“All through time, people have basically acted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance, and hope.”
– Jesse Livermore (Trader)
Top Links
Crisis = Danger + Opportunity – IronBridge Private Wealth
Here’s a great read from the team at IronBridge Private Wealth Management. They discuss some of the extreme readings in a number of different technical indicators.
If the S&P 500 Breaks this Level, it Could Fall to 2018 Lows, Trader Says – CNBC
Technical analyst, Katie Stockton shares her thoughts on the current market environment. She lays out some key levels to watch on the S&P 500 and explains why Clorox ($CLX) is one of her favorite stocks right now.
The Fastest Bear Market Ever – The Irrelevant Investor
While we’re not in a bear market just yet, the S&P 500 came within 1% of bear market territory yesterday. In this blog post, Michael Batnick points out that if we do fall into a bear market soon, it will have happened at a faster rate than any other bear market.
What Happens After a Massive Single Day Decline in Stocks? – Andrew Thrasher
Andrew Thrasher examines how stocks tend to perform in the weeks/months following a large drop like the one we saw yesterday.
Are Stocks Warning About a Comming Recession? – LPL Financial Research
As the S&P 500 nears bear market territory, the team at LPL Financial Research reminds us that not all bear markets turn into economic recessions.
Top 10 Tweets
Markets really ripped into the close there. S&P 500 ends up nearly 5% https://t.co/jXresZEEcA pic.twitter.com/eX730HBcV4
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) March 10, 2020
With today's 4.94% rally, it marked the 27th time the S&P500 has gained 4.5%+ in a single session in the post-WW2 era. It is the second in 7 trading sessions. How did the #SP500 perform after single session 4.5%+ rallies? Have a look. pic.twitter.com/flGFuRDA7C
— Michael McKerr (@MikeMcKerr_TDA) March 10, 2020
The last two candles for $SPY are incredible scenes pic.twitter.com/8rVEePfnpa
— George Pearkes (@pearkes) March 10, 2020
NDX Daily Sentiment closed at 4%, among the most extreme panics of all time.
Since 2007, 99.61% of all days were HIGHER than this.
Several Major lows formed AT OR ABOVE these levels. All residual declines ultimately led to historic rallies. Stay on MAX alert.$NQ_F $NDX $QQQ pic.twitter.com/MgHxfg8aIz
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 10, 2020
S&P500: 2650-2700 is a potential spot for (at least) a meaningful bounce.
The volatility index is in panic territory and was only higher in the great financial crisis (2008). Furthermore, the put/call-ratio is at record highs. $spy $spx $vix pic.twitter.com/3wB90vG1ql
— Adrian (@highlevelTrader) March 10, 2020
Put/Call ratio also showing extreme signs of panic. Another good bottoming indicator. $SPX pic.twitter.com/YyGSrU5teq
— Jim Denholm, CMT (@denholm_jim) March 10, 2020
The 20+ Year Treasury ETF finished down 5.13% today, its largest 1-day decline ever. (inception: 2002) $TLT pic.twitter.com/kfz10cmhPC
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 10, 2020
Yesterday's move in the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield was the largest 1-day percentage change ever. $TNX $ZB_F $ZN_F pic.twitter.com/ffoLSFccIp
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) March 10, 2020
Best single-day $DXY Dollar Index rally since Brexit-day June 23, 2016 pic.twitter.com/O9nBYTtxxz
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) March 10, 2020
One fun, random contour of the past week's sell off is that stocks with the highest sell-side recommendation have fared the worst pic.twitter.com/VnEDHprqsh
— Dani Burger (@daniburgz) March 10, 2020