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Today’s Summary
Friday, March 10th, 2023
Indices: Dow -1.07% | Nasdaq 100 -1.38% | S&P 500 -1.45% | Russell 2000 -2.95%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Consumer Staples led but still fell -0.49%. Real Estate lagged, dropping -3.19%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.27% to $76.68 per barrel. Gold futures rose +1.78% to $1,867 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.61% to $104.64.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.72% to $20,220. Ethereum fell -0.43% to $1,432.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.703%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$SPY below its October uptrend and $IEI: $HYG spread above its June downtrend pic.twitter.com/Lorp3pxIhS
— Stacey.A.Lee (@BBaxter2020) March 10, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Stacey Lee (@BBaxter2020). On top, it’s a chart of the S&P 500 over the past two years. On the bottom, is a ratio chart of Treasury Bonds vs. High Yield Bonds (IEI/HYG), which serves as a proxy for credit spreads. The S&P 500 dropped 4.55% this week, marking its worst week since September. We lost some key support levels this week including the 200-day moving average and the AVWAP from the peak. Stacey points out that the S&P also broke below the uptrend line that has been in place since the October lows. To make matters worse, credit spreads are beginning to widen out, with IEI/HYG breaking out of an 8-month downtrend line. This is not a bullish look for equities as widening credit spreads are often a sign of stress in the markets.
Quote of the Day
“When people talk listen completely. Don’t be thinking what you’re going to say. Most people never listen. Nor do they observe.”
– Ernest Hemingway
Top Links
This Doesn’t Happen Often – Bespoke
Bespoke examines the sharp drop in the 2-year US Treasury yield.
Here’s Why Banks are Breaking – All Star Charts
Ian Culley looks at the sell-off in Regional Banks and the inverted yield curve.
Commodities Bearish Pattern Suggesting Lower Inflation – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that Commodities are attempting to break down.
SPY Dips But Tech is Now Back on Track – StockCharts
Julius de Kempenaer takes a look at sector rotation within the S&P 500.
Catch a Falling Knife – The Compound and Friends
In this podcast, Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, Carleton English, and Joe Fahmy discuss the current state of the markets.
Top Tweets
Daily Mkt Mood: Risk-Off
1. Stocks down ~2%
2. $BKX -7.7% worst since June 2020
3. Big rally in 2-yr notes, decent 10-yr
4. Safe haven or undo of Powell pop
5. Jobs and BOJ ahead $SPX decisively below 200 DMA is ugly, Fri critical, will help determine state of Oct uptrend.— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) March 9, 2023
Bears waking up from hibernation this week? ? $SPY pic.twitter.com/g5kMPiCcia
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) March 10, 2023
S&P 500 setting up for an ugly weekly chart. Engulfing the last two weeks with multi-month low close. $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/d6IKjZyiPF
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) March 10, 2023
CBOE Volatility Index $VIX closes at highest level since December 12, 2022 ? pic.twitter.com/zr0qb3VvPI
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 10, 2023
$VIX doing VIX things. Chart from @EquityClock https://t.co/C2KvhsrAmv pic.twitter.com/OypViRqj8Z
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) March 10, 2023
? It wasn't just Silicon Valley Bank… the whole Financials sector suffered its worst one week performance (-8.5%) since June of 2020.$XLF $SIVB pic.twitter.com/GhRugxdN9q
— Brandon Van Zee (@BrandonVanZee) March 10, 2023
I think safe to say that broker dealers are no longer in an uptrend. $IAI pic.twitter.com/k0FpOlJneU
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) March 10, 2023
Gold futures registered the heaviest volume since March 9th, 2022. Almost a perfect one-year anniversary. Biggest single-day rally since Dec 2nd. Otherwise, not much technical relevancy to the day for me. pic.twitter.com/3rbFvEkUpm
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) March 10, 2023
10-year Treasury yields now lower in 2023 pic.twitter.com/sRKBsFBko2
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) March 10, 2023
The 2-year is down 44 bps over the last two days (since Wed's close).
Only four other days in the last 40 years have seen larger two-day moves.
Oct 20, 1987 = the day after the largest stock market crash in history (-22%, Oct 19, 1987)
Sept 14, 2001 = two days after the 9/11… https://t.co/INtuNpTCGa pic.twitter.com/8uIR6kFkjk
— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) March 10, 2023
Hearing a lot about how this is an isolated incident and there's no contagion risk $SIVB
Don't know if this is true, but do know the market very much disagrees
At the morning lows, regional banks $KRE were on pace for their largest weekly loss in history, -19.77% same as Oct 08 pic.twitter.com/oeX73aPuC9
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) March 10, 2023
Looks like the Fed did break something (closed at 82.90 a/h): pic.twitter.com/g26AlfXnG1
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) March 10, 2023
$SIVB – No need to read a 1000 word thread.
Just don't fight downtrends with weak momentum and persistent relative weakness to the broader market.
Simplicity > Complexity pic.twitter.com/6VSACSFn0F
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) March 10, 2023
Not a single sell rating from any wall street firm covering SIVB. Says everything you need to know about the value of analyst recommendations and price targets. pic.twitter.com/rInfqDBylH
— Peter Mallouk (@PeterMallouk) March 10, 2023