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Today’s Summary
Friday, March 12th, 2021
Indices: The Dow, S&P 500, and Russell closed at record highs, while the Nasdaq closed lower. The Dow gained 293 points or 0.90%. The S&P 500 was little changed, inching higher by just 0.10%. The Nasdaq slipped 0.59%. The Russell 2000 rose 0.61%.
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining 1.72%. Tech lagged, falling 0.72%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell 0.62% to $65.61 per barrel. Gold futures inched lower by 0.16% to $1,720 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose 0.27%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a new 52-week high of 1.623%
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Absolute levels of rates is not concerning but speed of change is. Looking at the last 10 wks, there has never been a faster rise in rates. Starting from a low base makes high RoC easy but the environment has changed @TheChartReport pic.twitter.com/EgjnIMcE8E
— Matt Harris, CMT (@MattHarrisCMT) March 12, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Matt Harris (@MattHarrisCMT). It’s a chart of the 10-year US Treasury yield over the past six decades. The 10-year yield jumped over 1.60% today, to the highest level in more than a year. It’s hard to accurately measure the rate of change on yields, due to the fact that we’re starting from such a low base, but theres no doubt that yields have signifiant momentum behind them right now. This rapid rise has sparked a lot of discussion over what it means in terms of asset allocation. In a comment to The Chart Report, Matt Said, “Rates are rising for the right reasons – improving outlook for economic growth and earnings. Rates are still far from a level that hinders economic growth but the speed of rates rising and extrapolating short-term trends may increase volatility, the environment will continue to be positive for risk assets and equities. Look to lighten up on bonds when yields drop, add to stocks when rate fears cause a sell-off.”
Quote of the Day
“Money won’t buy happiness, but it will pay the salaries of a large research staff to study the problem.”
– Bill Vaughan
Top Links
Lots of Green With St. Patrick’s Day on the Horizon – LPL Financial Research
Here’s a good recap of this week’s price action across the markets from the team at LPL Financial Research.
The Evolution of Emerging Markets – All Star Charts
Steve Strazza does a deep dive into Emerging Markets.
Where Do We (Investors) Stand – David Cox
In this quick video, David Cox offers his technical commentary on this week’s price action.
What’s The Best Hedge Against Inflation? – Compound
Charlie Bilello explains that Gold is not a great hedge against inflation, despite its reputation.
March Quarterly Options Expiration Week Historically Bullish: DJIA, S&P 500, & Nasdaq Up 10 of Last 13 – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch takes a look at stocks typically perform around March quarterly options expiration (next week).
Top Tweets
S&P 500: "Let's rally to a new high!"
Dow: "Count me in!"
Russell: "Me too!"Nasdaq: "Yeah … I'm cool right here."
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) March 12, 2021
Amazing how the VWAP anchored from the November high in $SPY has found buyers on each pullback
⚓️VWAP pic.twitter.com/EhfC8AOcRX
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) March 12, 2021
Another new high in the NYSE new highs list yesterday. Most since 2013. pic.twitter.com/R7XAVN8ZEK
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) March 12, 2021
A surge in NYSE new highs is not necessarily a good thing…3 out of the last 4 peaks in the 50-day MA gave way to corrective periods for $SPX #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/PGziiKZV3J
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) March 12, 2021
Speculative options activity has turned very pessimistic…$QQQ Put activity is among the highest in years – even higher than MAR 2020.
Tech bounced sharply this week, but Traders kept buying Puts.
At this pace, Traders are still a long way from embracing any rally. pic.twitter.com/dAUWBITo9q
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 12, 2021
Second lowest weekly $VIX close since mid-Feb last year. Does it finally drop into the teens next week? pic.twitter.com/yc84qmadpp
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) March 12, 2021
And speaking of vol, could this potential breakdown in European Stock Volatility be one of the more important developments of the week? $VSTOXX $V2TX pic.twitter.com/h1ui2j9auA
— Dana Lyons (@JLyonsFundMgmt) March 12, 2021
Europe $VGK ? pic.twitter.com/pOj3lP19BM
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) March 12, 2021
#GREECE pic.twitter.com/FanCBiBiLK
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) March 12, 2021
After a brief pause, the Treasury selloff resumes, with 10-year & 30-year U.S. yields bumping up toward the highest levels in more than a year. pic.twitter.com/cnR67zZ0ja
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) March 12, 2021
US 10-year note yields leaving behind all other breakouts from six-month ranges except the 1994 experience ? pic.twitter.com/IAPGOavtYz
— Ben Breitholtz (@benbreitholtz) March 12, 2021
10Y T is really just back into its old 6 year range pic.twitter.com/j7kivjYYHM
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) March 12, 2021
New all-time high for the S&P 500, while the 10-year yield soared?
Almost like stocks like a higher trending 10-year yield… pic.twitter.com/Mqe5MYr5ZG
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 12, 2021
New All-Time Friday Closing High Prices$NYCA$DJIA$DJTA$RUT
NYSE A/D
I have no idea what perma-bears are smoking, but it is some nasty weed pic.twitter.com/xT7u2we3in— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) March 12, 2021