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Todayâs Summary
Wednesday, March 15th, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.42% | S&P 500 -0.70% | Dow -0.87% | Russell 2000 -1.74%
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Utilities led gaining +1.36%. Energy had its worst day in nearly 6 months, dropping -5.37%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -5.22% to their lowest level in more than a year at $67.61 per barrel. Gold futures rose +1.07% to $1,931 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained +1.03% to $104.75.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.05% to $24,485. Ethereum dropped -2.83% to $1,656.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.459%, closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time since December 2021.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Downtrends do downtrend things like, uhh, go down… $CS âïž pic.twitter.com/4z4Ni3AwGu
— Grayson Roze (@GraysonRoze) March 15, 2023
Todayâs Chart of the Day was shared by Grayson Roze (@GraysonRoze). The saying “The trend is your friend” gets thrown around so often that it’s easy to dismiss it as a cute rhyming platitude. However, we’ve seen numerous examples in recent weeks that underscore the importance of avoiding downtrends. Today’s example is Credit Suisse ($CS). The stock was down as much as 30% this morning, and while it pared those losses intraday, it still closed at an all-time low. It’s tempting to want to get involved in downtrends, as we’re all taught to buy low and sell high. However, surprises tend to happen in the direction of the prevailing trend, and Credit Suisse has been in a persistent downtrend since the Great Financial Crisis. You can spend hours pouring over balance sheets, reading articles, and all that, but the trend has been telling you to avoid this mess for more than a decade now.
Quote of the Day
“No one can know the future, but what are those trends and numbers telling you?”
– Larry Hite
Top Links
Warning Shots – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss highlights some of the noteworthy nuggets from this week’s price action so far.
VIX Index Above All of its Futures – StockCharts.com
Tom McClellan examines a rare signal from the VIX that suggests the S&P 500 may be reaching a bottom.
We are Watching 3,505 for the Next Major Support for S&P 500, Says Fairlead’s Katie Stockton – CNBC
In this clip, Katie Stockton shares her outlook on the S&P 500.
Stocks Up 22 of Last 29 St. Patrick’s Days Even Luckier Thursday Before – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch takes a look at how stocks have historically performed around St. Patty’s Day.
In Memoriam Steve Leuthold – The Leuthold Group
The technical community lost a real pioneer this week, Steve Leuthold. You can read more about him and his legacy here. Â
Top Tweets
The Nasdaq 100 has outperformed the S&P 500 for 10 straight trading days, the longest streak since July 2017.
Sure, the banking system may be falling apart.
But hey, lower rates!
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) March 15, 2023
Mega cap tech to the rescue. And the safety trade. $XLP $XLU $XLV pic.twitter.com/dvGTgW43VM
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) March 15, 2023
Here's what the S&P 500 has done in March the past 20 years.
The first half has been tough, but the second half has been much better.
Well, the first half has followed suit so far in 2023. Now what? pic.twitter.com/ttp5mJtAQM
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 15, 2023
Ratio of small-caps to large-caps went from a 15-month high…
To a 10-month low…
In about six weeks…$IWM $SPY pic.twitter.com/L7LlCL3Se6
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) March 15, 2023
$XLK Tech looks great here. No idea if it lasts but a notable change in the guard. Check out the RS move on top over the last month. Held the highs from late last year which is a spot to manage from. Just above some key MAs too which are moving up pic.twitter.com/h9pq6XLqus
— Gregory Krupinski (@G_krupins) March 15, 2023
The 2-Year Treasury yield is now under 4%. A week ago it was above 5%. This is the largest 5-day decline in yields since the October 1987 crash. Market is calling the Fed's bluff on further tightening after next week's FOMC meeting. Fed Funds Futures: 1 more hike, then rate cuts. pic.twitter.com/vFzM8yMJeC
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) March 15, 2023
Is the bottom in for the 10-2 Curve. Recessions tend to begin AFTER the curve has bottomed. pic.twitter.com/Nev4yCpDrD
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) March 15, 2023
Wild moves in yield spreads lately … 10y2y recently surged by 0.48%, which was largest daily jump since October 1982 and second largest in history
âŠ@biancoresearchâ© âŠ@Bloombergâ© pic.twitter.com/gF14533hCc— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 15, 2023
Classic bull steepener with the 10yr yield down but the 2yr down more: https://t.co/5LKGhBcSGc pic.twitter.com/l7pOFxkWoW
— Nick Reece (@nicholastreece) March 15, 2023
Yo, Charts – Energy refresh⊠pic.twitter.com/epC6rTnlxG
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) March 15, 2023
Energy stocks are going to have a tough time breaking out if Crude Oil is below those 2018 highs pic.twitter.com/hTbUVKwknM
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) March 15, 2023
How soon will the narrative flip from "this is great for inflation" to "energy demand is a sign of a slowing economy"?$CL_F https://t.co/N3NElTAnJQ pic.twitter.com/BzNuHMoyVm
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) March 15, 2023
Commodities don't correct during bull markets $DBC $CL_F pic.twitter.com/7hqlFMsRiM
— David Settle, CMT (@davidsettle42) March 15, 2023
Friday: Banking crisis
Saturday: Banking crisis
Sunday: Banking crisis averted
Monday: Banking crisis still here
Tuesday: Banking crisis averted
Wednesday: Banking crisis back on
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) March 15, 2023