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Today’s Summary
Monday, March 16th, 2020
Indices: US Stocks kicked-off the week on an ugly note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 2,997 points or 12.93%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged 11.98% and 12.23%, respectively. The Russell 2000 was the weakest of the major averages, crashing 14.27%.
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower by more than 6%. Consumer Staples led but still fell 6.78%. Real Estate lagged, falling a whopping 16.00%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures plummeted 12.88% to $28.69 per barrel – the lowest level since 2016. Gold futures fell 0.94% to $1,514 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index dropped 0.71%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield moved lower to 0.74%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
2011 volatility looks like the best case scenario, not the base case, and certainly not the worst case. Remember, $SPX has twice fallen 50% since 2000. This is not a prediction, but it is possible in a bear market. $SPY. Post on setting expectations. https://t.co/0m2xT9MZ63 pic.twitter.com/7KLLHhieaa
— Arthur Hill, CMT (@ArthurHill) March 16, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Arthur Hill (@ArthurHill ). It’s a chart of the S&P 500 over the past two decades. As of today’s close, the index is down nearly 30% from its peak in just 18 trading days. A lot of people have been comparing the current market environment to 2011, where the S&P 500 fell more than 16% in only 11 days, followed by nine weeks of extreme volatility. Arthur points out that, at this point, 2011 would be the best-case scenario, not the base case. He emphasizes that we can not rule out the possibility of a 50% decline, similar to what investors experienced in the past two bear markets. For more on this, check out his full blog post here.
Quote of the Day
“Without a doubt, the news will get worse from here. But its ability to shock us will diminish.”
– Josh Brown (CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management)
Top Links
NYSE Floor Talk with Jay Woods – NYSE
The circuit breakers were triggered for the third time in six sessions this morning. In this clip, NYSE Executive Floor Governor, Jay Woods discusses today’s violent price action.
Assessing the Damage – Murphy Charts
Shane Murphy weighs-in on some of the unprecedented moves that we’ve seen in Stocks, Crude Oil, and Interest Rates over the past few weeks.
Frank Cappelleri Talks S&P Chart – TD Ameritrade Network
In this clip from TD Ameritrade, Frank Cappelleri of Instinet shares his technical take on the S&P 500.
We Will Survive – The Weekly Trend Podcast – Adaptiv
Here’s a podcast from David Zarling and Ian McMillan. They chat about some of the technical damage that has occurred across asset classes.
Unlocked: This Week’s Thrasher Analytics Letter – Andrew Thrasher
Volatility expert, Andrew Thrasher shared this unlocked version of his weekly newsletter, in which he provides an in-depth analysis of the current market environment.
Top 10 Tweets
More than 3,000 securities trade on the NYSE.
On Monday, exactly zero managed to hit a 52-week high.
That's the first time in 30 years that not a single issue bucked the brutal selling pressure.
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) March 16, 2020
Worst point loss ever -2997.10, biggest percentage loss since 1987. ????? pic.twitter.com/AlhsL9zXbE
— Jay Woods (@JayWoods3) March 16, 2020
18 trading days, 30%.
Nothing in even close has ever happen. pic.twitter.com/0zwd91IYKW
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 16, 2020
Noted these levels on Friday when index futures hit them in the overnight session – now see the cash markets testing the EXACT same levels.
Said it before, worth saying again: Humans are chaotic and irrational, but markets can be brutally precise. Pay attention here.$SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/XQZGR9qF9C
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) March 16, 2020
Maybe monthly levels are what we should be looking at…on the S&P 500 monthly, there are really only two major downside levels: ~2,100 and ~1,560
the first is ~15% away; not that far when you consider things $SPX pic.twitter.com/ZPO1MjukO4
— BostonCharts (@bostonchaahhts) March 16, 2020
S&P 500 sector performance today and since selloff started. $SPX pic.twitter.com/Pv7IkwGRWv
— Stephanie Lewicky (@SLewicky_TDA) March 16, 2020
The VIX is back to its highest levels since the Financial Crisis. ?
Follow the VIX here: https://t.co/jRA2MTR9yE pic.twitter.com/PKhhNlKvut
— TradingView (@tradingview) March 16, 2020
Commodities at lowest level since 1970s pic.twitter.com/MMdV2N1Iil
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 16, 2020
There should be support for Gold prices under $1400. If price drops below $1300, then $1,050 here we come. #GOLD $GC_F pic.twitter.com/rA1jUYK1W8
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) March 16, 2020
I see lots of people making predictions. In most cases, I think it's just an ineffective way to try cope with uncertainty and fear..
Better to prepare than predict here I think.
— Phil Pearlman (@ppearlman) March 16, 2020