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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, March 16th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks closed slightly lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 128 points or 0.39%. The S&P 500 inched lower by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq managed to close positive by 0.09%. The Russell 2000 underperformed, falling 1.72%.
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Communications led, gaining 1.05%. Energy lagged, dropping 2.85%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell 0.90% to $64.80 per barrel. Gold futures inched higher by just 0.10% to $1,731 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was flat (0.04%).
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield inched higher to 1.620%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Supply for #energy stocks coming in at a ~5yr polarity area. Above $55 is ?, remaining below is ? $XLE $SPY #oil #stocks #CrudeOil pic.twitter.com/mVHpkZbuND
— Drew Wells, CMT, CIMA® (@DrewTheCharts) March 16, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Drew Wells (@DrewTheCharts). It’s a weekly candlestick chart of the Energy sector ETF, $XLE, over the past six years. The Energy sector has led the way so far in 2021. It’s currently up 36% year-to-date, which is more than 2x the performance of the second-best sector (Financials). However, it’s noticeably lagging the other sectors this week, as it runs into former support. This is an important test for the S&P’s hottest sector. As Drew points out, $55 is the line in the sand for $XLE. Above $55 = Bullish. Below $55 = Bearish. In a comment to The Chart Report, Drew added, “The Energy sector is a good bellwether for the cyclical rotation/reopening trade. Cracking that $55 level gives a lot more confidence in a sustained rotation for those themes, and remaining below suggests that the rip off the March & November lows was more of a mean reversion move.”
Quote of the Day
“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
– Leonardo da Vinci
Top Links
The Twenty Craziest Investing Facts Ever – The Irrelevant Investor
Michael Batnick shares 20 fun facts on investing.
The REAL Deal Regarding FX Exposure in International ETFs – All Star Charts
Ian Cully discusses the impact currencies can have on international ETFs.
Bumble and Roblox Soar, But Trader Says This 9-month-old Stock Looks Like a Better Buy – CNBC
Ari Wald of Oppenheimer offers his technical perspective on IPO stocks.
Irish Eyes Shine on Market Last 27 Years and Thursday After Wednesday St. Patrick’s Day – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch takes a look at how stocks have historically performed around St. Patrick’s Day.
Is the Cannabis Sector Primed for a Move Up? – StockCharts
Mish Schneider examines the outlook for the popular Cannabis ETF, $MJ.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 snapped its five-day winning streak.
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) March 16, 2021
$SPX Not every day can be up. Breadth is still saying this rally can run. Let's get Powell behind us. Seasonality will be kicking in as well. I'm pretty much fully committed. pic.twitter.com/1s51BTZKS4
— Alan Cohen (@al_xdpg) March 16, 2021
One thing to keep in mind, and something we discussed on the podcast last week, is that S&P 500 seasonality – on average – sees an intermediate term bottom in mid-March…$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/gJuiJMeBTi
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) March 16, 2021
$VIX starting to spend some time under 20. If it can start to trend lower from here, it would be a positive for markets. Still early in the day and markets are still volatile. TBD. pic.twitter.com/btn5QQxF8l
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) March 16, 2021
Here's a fun one….
When $VIX has hit a 12-month low for the first time in two weeks, it's been higher 5 days later 87% & 80% of the time 5 days and 15 days later, respectively.
(since 3/2009) pic.twitter.com/Yqp8CPVovE— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) March 16, 2021
The "rotation" trade is suffering a bit the last couple of days. It will test the resolve of those who made any major changes to their holdings recently. $QQQ $IWM $XLE $XLF pic.twitter.com/VZFbjYSS0r
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) March 16, 2021
While semis have underperformed recently, the SOX was at least able to close back above its 50-DMA yesterday. https://t.co/NwSBO45haD pic.twitter.com/ZrtWoMqr65
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) March 16, 2021
The Financials / S&P 500 ratio is finding some resistance. Is this 2016 again where we have a violent move in value only for it to fizzle out? Or, is it real this time? I think this level will tell us.$XLF $SPY pic.twitter.com/WYMoD4lUCc
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) March 16, 2021
Treasuries moved into a bear market recently.
This isn't getting much pub with stocks doing so well, but it is impacting a lot of portfolios. pic.twitter.com/2zKh1kRvv3
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 16, 2021
On my list of "Things That Aren't Bearish", I have $264B semiconductor stocks in the Dow printing new 52-week highs and nearing a multi-year breakout to all-time highs.
Oh hey! Look! $INTC! ? pic.twitter.com/gJjZSWLqtj
— Grayson Roze (@GraysonRoze) March 16, 2021
March 16, 2020 March 16, 2021 pic.twitter.com/WJNVrwymwG
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 16, 2021
One year ago today the S&P 500 fell 12%
It was the 3rd worst day in history
If you would have bought the market at the close that day you're now up 66%
(If you were a liar and instead bought at the very bottom on 3/23/20 you're now up 78%)
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) March 16, 2021