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Todayโs Summary
Tuesday, March 21st, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +1.88% | Nasdaq 100 +1.42% | S&P 500 +1.30% | Dow +0.98%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +3.46%. Utilities lagged falling -2.01%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +2.73% to $69.67 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -2.10% to $1,941/oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched lower by -0.09% to $103.22.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +0.97% to $28,084. Ethereum gained +3.42% to $1,798.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.611%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Tech heavyweights index influence on the rise again. pic.twitter.com/XiH2G56sib
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) March 21, 2023
Todayโs Chart of the Day was shared by Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn). The green line represents the combined weights of the two largest stocks within the S&P 500 over the past 30-years. $AAPL and $MSFT are currently the largest, but keep in mind that the green line measures whichever two stocks were the largest at that time (ex. $GE & $XOM in 2004.) Mega-Cap Tech has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting recently, with $AAPL and $MSFT accounting for more than half of the S&P 500โs YTD gain. Todd points out that their combined weight within the S&P 500 has reached an all-time high of 13.2%. For reference, thatโs larger than the entire bottom four sectors combined (Energy + Utilities + Materials + Real Estate = 11.5% weight.) This isnโt outright bearish, but it does raise concentration risk, as two stocks have never had so much influence over the S&P 500.
Quote of the Day
โOur brains are wired to make us social animals. We feel the pain of social exclusion in the same parts of the brain where we feel real physical pain. So being a contrarian is a little bit like having your arm broken on a regular basis.โ
โ James Montier
Top Links
Is This the Most Important Chart in the World? โ Carson Group
Ryan Detrick points out the the Financial Sector ($XLF) is testing a crucial long-term level.
Bonds, Bitcoin & Big Tech โ Pardon the Price Action
In this video, JC Parets & Steve Strazza discuss some of the most noteworthy charts & trends across the markets.
S&P 500 Might Deliver a Rare Bullish Signal โ Day Trader Playbook
Yuriy Matso looks at previous instances where the S&P 500 violated and reclaimed its 200-day moving average after registering a Golden Cross.
S&P 500 Up 5 of Last 8 Fed Hike Announcement Days โ Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how the S&P 500 has historically performed around FOMC meetings.
Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/RLJdCo3ZHI
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 21, 2023
$QQQ really powered the intraday move.. after small caps gapped up big this morning pic.twitter.com/1ewPKmIiYP
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) March 21, 2023
It's almost as though the bank turmoil never happened with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level since March 6 $SPX pic.twitter.com/j1BI7D1M6d
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) March 21, 2023
$SPY successfully tested the break of the downtrend line from last year, while testing the underside of the uptrend line from the October lows. Something for everyone. Stay nimble.$SPX #invest #stocks pic.twitter.com/GNfpYLiYxe
— Jim Denholm, CMT (@denholm_jim) March 21, 2023
Sometimes, it's just best to turn off all the studies, trendiness, support, resistance, and just keep it super-simple.
Lower-Highs and Lower-Lows = Downtrend
Higher-Lows and Higher-Highs = Uptrend
What does the trend look like to you?
<HINT: It's not bearish>$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/xdqfu7jEv6
— Adam D. Koรณs, CFPยฎ, CMT, CEPA (@AdamKoos) March 21, 2023
Ignore all the competing narratives, and just focus on the chart of $QQQ. Possibly the most straightforward bullish rotation imaginable. Triple bottom at 260, break above resistance and the 200-day MA in Jan, pullback to breakout level in Feb, now rotating higher. pic.twitter.com/Rx54LV0Ldg
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) March 21, 2023
The Nasdaq's Cumulative Advance-Decline line has parted ways with index direction in recent days. In other words, the index has rallied despite weakย breadth (more stocks falling than rising), the two lines are likely to find their way back together somehow… pic.twitter.com/4jtqSSUugA
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) March 21, 2023
You won't find a more important chart/level than $30 in the Financial Sector SPDR $XLF right now
This represents where prices peaked and rolled over just before covid, in 2018, and prior to the financial crisis… the implications of this level breaking are HUGE pic.twitter.com/taCnVVF3PN
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) March 21, 2023
Lots of comparisons being drawn to 2008 given banking stress, but not same image for S&P 500 … at this point into bear market during GFC (blue), stocks had fallen much harder than current drawdown (orange)
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/mS2JDIIl3D— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 21, 2023
According to @bespokeinvest, the 2-year yield gained/lost at least 30 basis points for a record 7 days in a row (ended yesterday).
In other words, we've never seen volatility like this in the bond market. pic.twitter.com/MIxwmXsEv7
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) March 21, 2023
$SPY is now positive since the banking crisis began because of course.
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) March 21, 2023