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Today’s Summary
Thursday, March 30th, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.91% | S&P 500 +0.57% | Dow +0.43% | Russell 2000 -0.18%
Sectors: 10 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining +1.30%. Financials were the only sector that closed lower, falling -0.22%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.92% to $74.37 per barrel. Gold futures gained +1.57% to a new 52-week high of $1,998 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.46% to $102.17.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.51% $27,926. Ethereum inched lower by -0.36% to $1,787.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched lower to 3.553%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
It's been 310 trading days since we last saw a new all-time high in the S&P 500
The highest count since the GFC$SPY $SPX #stocks pic.twitter.com/3BnyoUbm4L
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) March 30, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge). It’s a chart of the S&P 500 over the past three decades with an indicator measuring the number of consecutive trading days since a new all-time high. As of today, we’ve gone 311 trading days without an all-time high, marking the longest streak since the Great Financial Crisis. The chart serves as a good reminder of how long drawdowns can persist for. The drawdown in the early 2000’s lasted five times longer than the current drawdown (1,799 trading days). It finally reached all-time highs in 2007, but that breakout failed, and we went another 1,368 days without an all-time high. Why do we care about all-time highs? Because it’s much easier for price to make forward progress when there’s virtually no overhead supply for buyers to contend with. It doesn’t look like this streak will end any time soon, considering the S&P 500 is still down more than 15% from its highs.
Quote of the Day
“Isn’t it funny how day by day nothing changes, but when you look back, everything is different?”
– C.S. Lewis
Top Links
Sentiment Still Bearish…Or Is It? – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Are Semiconductors Ready for a Pullback? – StockCharts.com
Carl Swenlin points out that Semiconductor Stocks are showing signs of exhaustion.
Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Flashing Bullish Buy Signal – See it Market
Guy Cerundolo examines the outlook for Gold Mining Stocks.
A Recession Won’t Happen This Year – Fox Business News
In this clip, Ryan Detrick and Charles Payne discuss the outlook for the stock market and the economy.
Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/SGSvXHZYHX
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 30, 2023
The monthly chart's back in the red zone.
1st and goal from the 5.
Maybe the Bulls can *finally* break through. $spy pic.twitter.com/PiYesmQlXd
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) March 30, 2023
Yo, Charts – YTD the Big 7 (combined as a price weighted index) is +43%,the Big 5 is +29%, and the S&P +5%. pic.twitter.com/llJMQ03PqQ
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) March 30, 2023
You can thank big tech for your portfolio's surprisingly strong March.
Big tech is heading for its strongest month vs. the rest of the S&P 500 in almost 12 years.
Without big tech, the S&P would be down 0.7% (vs. up 1.5% like it is now). pic.twitter.com/M3klhI5nN2
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) March 30, 2023
This is just insane. pic.twitter.com/O7vCekASVM
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) March 30, 2023
Seasonality chart for S&P 500 when January is up >5% (via @RyanDetrick) pic.twitter.com/joB5Djqhn3
— Joseph Fahmy (@jfahmy) March 30, 2023
A study shared with commentary subscribers last weekend. January was up 6.17%. Since 1950, if January was up at least +2%, April was positive in 28 of those 32 setup years for an avg monthly gain of 3.02%. See below for details. pic.twitter.com/XFpshY1sRB
— Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) March 30, 2023
Utilities are probably thought of as the most bond-like/income-focused equity sector, the classic defensive option. But Treasury yields are still above Utilities' dividend yield for now. Both fighting for those defensive dollars.
Chart courtesy of @StrategasRP pic.twitter.com/OE1P7jTISj— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) March 30, 2023
KBW Bank Index (blue) and 2y U.S. Treasury yield (orange) tied at hip … rolling 20-day correlation has surged to highest since February 2020 pic.twitter.com/Zg3kckuCRT
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 30, 2023
$BAC Tweeted this morning that if people really thought the banking crisis was over this name should move off the bottom, so why is it down 1.5%, and why does it's chart look just like $KRE? pic.twitter.com/qPxFTtTkSz
— Matthew Tuttle (@TuttleCapital) March 30, 2023
This bank doesn't look like the others…
Market rewarding First Citizens $FCNCA for buying $SIVB deposit and loan books.
Makes sense as they basically paid nothing for $16B in net assets, acquired zero securities, and FDIC is covering 50% of commercial loan losses. Sweet deal! pic.twitter.com/e73ICK8WQL
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) March 30, 2023
Sugar finishes the day 21.96, the highest daily close in more than 6 years pic.twitter.com/QKOHJmphdM
— Barchart (@Barchart) March 30, 2023