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Today’s Summary
Thursday, March 31st, 2022
Indices: Russell 2000 -1.00% | Nasdaq 100 -1.55% | Dow -1.56% | S&P 500 -1.57%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Utilities led, but still slipped -0.11%. Financials lagged, falling -2.29%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures tumbled -6.99% to $100.28 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.77% to $1,954 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained +0.52%.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -2.84% to $45,731. Ethereum dropped -3.24% $3,277.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.342%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Homies don't like new mortgage rates. $ITB pic.twitter.com/yTRiv5ZGUI
— Michael Kahn, CMT (@mnkahn) March 31, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Michael Kahn (@mnkahn). It’s a daily bar chart of the Home Construction ETF, $ITB, over the past 11 months. The largest stocks in this ETF include; $DHI, $LEN, $NVR, $PHM, and $PHM. Home Construction stocks have taken a beating lately with $ITB closing at a fresh 52-week low on both an absolute and relative basis. At this point, it’s down more than 28% from its highs. As Michael points out, mortgage rates have been putting pressure on the group, with the 30-year mortgage rate jumping to three-year highs. This is somewhat of a risk-on industry group, so it’s not great to see it hitting new lows like this. It would be bullish to see $ITB reclaim former support around $66, but as long as we’re below that level there is further downside risk.
Quote of the Day
“Smart people learn from everything and everyone, average people from their experiences, stupid people already have all the answers.”
– Socrates
Top Links
Can Mega Cap Growth Make a Comeback? – CMT Association
Ian McMillan examines the outlook for Mega Cap Growth stocks.
DJIA and S&P 500 Higher 61.9% of the Time on First Trading Day in Q2 – Almanac Trader
Seasonality Expert, Jeff Hirsch shows how the major averages have performed on the first trading day in April (tomorrow).
Bears Go Back Into Hibernation – Bespoke
Bespoke analyzes the results of the most recent AAII Sentiment Survey.
Stock Market Analysis End of Q1 2022 – AlphaTrends
In this video, Brian Shannon breaks down recent price action and lays out some key levels to watch in the near term.
Time to Dig Into Copper Miners? – Honey Stocks
Sam McCallum takes a look at a potential breakout in Copper mining stocks.
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Top Tweets
FOR THE MONTH, THE S&P 500 ROSE 3.6%, THE DOW ROSE 2.3% AND THE NASDAQ ROSE 3.4%
FOR THE QUARTER, THE S&P 500 FELL 4.9%, THE DOW FELL 4.6% AND THE NASDAQ FELL 9.1%
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 31, 2022
Q1:
US stocks $SPY -4.6% (total return)
Commodities $DBC +25% pic.twitter.com/nynDYnhcGq— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) March 31, 2022
2 days is just 2 days, but the NYSE FANG+ Index's rally appears to be stalling right at the 200-dma that acted as support throughout 2021 pic.twitter.com/If8w96vxVc
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) March 31, 2022
$SPY and $RSP also back below their February highs pic.twitter.com/1SvfNBYUFp
— Bailey.Baxter2020 (@BBaxter2020) March 31, 2022
$IWM updated chart… this is a big headache for me… hopefully it will repair tomorrow, but it has the potential to lead the broader market lower. I'm not a fan of failed moves for obvious reasons. pic.twitter.com/tW7L3kJlBn
— Sam McCallum ??????? (@honeystocks1) March 31, 2022
This week marks the first time this year that more than half of the issues on the NYSE are trading above their respective 50-day MAs. pic.twitter.com/tPULFtdnMO
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) March 31, 2022
Ran-dumb:
Here is every month where the S&P 500 recorded the following:
– traded down -3% or worse at some point during the month
– finished the month up 3% or more
– closed below ATH monthly close
– closed with trailing 12 month returns positiveI mean…accumulation much? pic.twitter.com/2AnYf6KgdF
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) March 31, 2022
Housing space deteriorating pic.twitter.com/MSyncVdZWg
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) March 31, 2022
Serious divergence between 10s2s yield spread (orange), which is nearly inverted, and Fed’s near-term forward spread (blue), which is steepening markedly pic.twitter.com/7oR1eEvBky
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 31, 2022
And there it is the monthly candle thanks for playing etc also this thread is my application for the tape painting position at the White House pic.twitter.com/iNk5Rv1sok
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) March 31, 2022
So much for a breakdown in #Gold – the yellow metal has bounced nicely off its 50-day EMA and remains within its 2-week range between $1900 and $1960: pic.twitter.com/y3c5qQKaPX
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) March 31, 2022
$GLD – Monthly#Monthlycharts pic.twitter.com/NAyLOoKTbL
— Bhagyashree Urdhwareshe, CMT (@sunsofttech) March 31, 2022
If base metals continue to outperform, expect South Africa to be one of the countries that does it better. pic.twitter.com/kIcHJix0d0
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) March 31, 2022
April is Bitcoin's 2nd strongest month next to November, coming in at +47.5% on average. The month tends to either be highly positive or flattish. The only negative Aprils since the 2011 data are 2012, 2015, and 2021 — none of them have experienced outsized drawdowns. $BTCUSD https://t.co/6U7UgMsR5q pic.twitter.com/3BJHLxxKoj
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) March 31, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!