Worst Month for Stocks in Two Years π Daily Chart Report
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Todayβs Summary
Monday, March 31, 2025
Indices: Dow +1.00% | S&P 500 +0.55% | Nasdaq -0.02% | Russell 2000 -0.56%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Staples led, rising +1.57%. Tech lagged but still finished slightly positive by +0.05%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +3.06% to $71.48 per barrel. Gold gained +1.16% to an all-time high of $3,150 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.17% to $104.18.
Crypto: Bitcoin inched higher by +0.22% to $82,538. Ethereum rose +0.81% to $1,822.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +2.82% to 22.27.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.211%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
π Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts).
- The S&P 500 ($SPY) closed higher by +0.7% today despite opening lower by -1.1%. While todayβs intraday action was bullish, $SPY finished March with a loss of -5.9%βits worst month since December 2022.
- $SPY undercut its recent low at $551 before reversing higher this morning. Larry points out that breadth and momentum refused to make new lows, representing a bullish divergence.
- At the March 13th low, less than 20% of stocks were above their 20-day moving average compared to nearly 50% today. Daily RSI made a higher low today while avoiding oversold territory (below 30). This is a bullish condition, but further confirmation is necessary.
The Takeaway: Breadth and momentum refused to break down today while $SPY revisited its March 13th low. These bullish divergences were absent at the previous low, but the current bounce must exceed the previous bounce for confirmation.
Quote of the Day
"Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose so they win by losing money".
- Ed Seykota
Top Links
DJIA and S&P 500 Best on First Trading Day of Q2 Last 35 Years - Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how stocks have historically performed on the first trading day of Q2.
Proliferation of Bad News Has Created Good News in Positioning Data - CNBC
Jeff deGraaf shares his thoughts on sentiment and the current market environment.
Risk-Off Leading the Way Lower π - The Daily Number
Grant Hawkridge highlights three risk ratios that suggest further weakness for the broader market.
Prove It Market - The Weekly Trend Podcast
Ian McMillan and David Zarling discuss the recent correction and outlook for the stocks.
Will Crude Catch Up? - Alfonso's Daily Note
Alfonso De Pablos looks at the divergence between Crude Oil and inflation expectations.