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Todayโs Summary
Thursday, April 6th, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.74% |S&P 500 +0.36% | Russell 2000 +0.13% |Dow +0.01%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Communications led, gaining +1.25%. Energy lagged, dropping -1.52%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures inched higher by just +0.11% to $80.70 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.45% to $2,026 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was flat (+0.04%) at $101.92.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.44% to $28,059. Ethereum dropped -2.00% to $1,871.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched lower for the seventh consecutive session to a six-month low of 3.307%.
**Reminder: The US Stock Market will be closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. The Bond Market will close early at 2PM ET.**
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The Ratio of US Small Caps to US Large Caps is nearing March 2020 levels, which was the lowest we've seen since February 2001. $IWM $SPY pic.twitter.com/0nr9xBWQQG
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 6, 2023
Todayโs Chart of the Day was shared by Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello). Itโs a ratio chart of the Small Cap Russell 2000 vs. the Large Cap S&P 500 ($IWM/$SPY). Charlie points out that the Russell 2000 is testing its pandemic lows on a relative basis. Itโs also testing a fragile level on an absolute basis. In other words, the Russell 2000 is at a potential inflection point on both an absolute and relative basis. It would make sense for the Russell 2000 to make a stand here. However, if it fails to do so, it will be a major red flag, as Small Cap underperformance is a sign of risk aversion among market participants.
Quote of the Day
โBeautiful sunsets need cloudy skies.โ
โ Paulo Coelho
Trendlines > Headlines
Check out the latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines!
In this weekโs episode, Willie Delwiche of Hi Mount Research returns to the show to help us make sense of the current market environment. We discuss breadth, sentiment, interest rates, global equities, and more!
Top Links
When the Employment Report Has Been Released on Good Fridayโฆ โ Quantifiable Edges
The March unemployment report will be released tomorrow while the stock market is closed. In this quick note, Rob Hanna examines how the S&P 500 has historically reacted to this unusual scenario.
Sentiment Back to Bullish โ Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
The Pivotal Moment: Will the S&P 500 Enter a New Bull Market or Continue the Bearish Trend? โ Day Trader Playbook
Yuriy Matso takes a closer look at the 50% retracement level in the S&P 500.
April Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways โ All Star Charts
The team at All Star Charts highlights three themes to watch in the coming weeks.
Stock Market Analysis 4/6/23 Anchored VWAP Analysis โ AlphaTrends
In this video, Brian Shannon reviews this weekโs price action and lays out some key levels to watch in the week ahead.
Top Tweets
Weekly Mkt Mood: Meh/Mixed
1. Stocks mainly lower
2. Bonds higher
3. Oil, metals gain
4. Dollar falls for fourth week
5. $VIX with an 18-handleLots of choppy, low-volume moves but not a lot of conviction. Investors are waiting (again) on jobs, CPI, earnings and the Fed.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) April 6, 2023
That's a wrap for this short trading week! $SPY
What stands out to you on the heatmap? ๐ pic.twitter.com/HySPhTphZw
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) April 6, 2023
1) Okay, some thoughts before an Easter weekend twitter break:
1. $SPX price held > rising EMA(8), EMA(21) & MA(50) but…
2. Imo, a HH > Feb H needed for bull case. pic.twitter.com/q4fIhSmEfO— Mountain View Trading (@DanWiserMtnView) April 6, 2023
Large caps $SPY currently 2% below February high.
Small caps $IWM currently 12% below Feb high.
This is what narrow leadership looks like, and it's not bullish. pic.twitter.com/Xve0zYeFsO— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) April 6, 2023
$IWM bearish engulfing this week pic.twitter.com/YYrU7teWkG
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) April 6, 2023
Yo, Charts: Ask yourself the following – If the banking crisis is over, why canโt banks rally? pic.twitter.com/yS1h4SLnDs
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) April 6, 2023
A number of European countries still hanging in there quite nicely…$EWP $EWL $EWQ $PGAL pic.twitter.com/boIn54OiP4
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) April 6, 2023
The Euro Stoxx 50 ETF $FEZ has gained 40% over the last six months; one of the few times it has hit that mark since it began trading in 2003. pic.twitter.com/wxhH6cpK6q
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) April 6, 2023
Bearish to bullish reversal in US Treasury Bonds?$TLT pic.twitter.com/U6ug4eQb4W
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) April 6, 2023
Gold prices have respected these fib retracements from the 1990-1999 decline. If we're above 2060, 3170 is the next level to watch pic.twitter.com/rtLkpnAgkS
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) April 6, 2023
Sugar isn't slowing down! ๐ pic.twitter.com/JOd1V9aEFx
— Barchart (@Barchart) April 6, 2023