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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, April 11th, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.80% |Dow +0.29%|S&P 500 +0.00% |Nasdaq 100 -0.67%
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +0.95%. Technology lagged, falling –0.94%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +2.24% to $81.53 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.76% to $2,019 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.39% to $102.14.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +2.06% to a 10-month high of $30,263. Ethereum fell -1.00% to $1,892.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched higher to 3.430%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Large speculators are aggressively short $ES_F, holding their largest net-short position since Oct. 2011.
Extreme pessimism such as this tends to coincide with significant trend reversals. $SPY pic.twitter.com/PrOosiK4dw
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) April 11, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ian Culley (@IanCulley). Large speculators (hedge funds) are aggressively short S&P 500 futures right now, with their largest net-short position since October 2011. Between tomorrow’s CPI report, and earnings season, there are plenty of catalysts in the near term that could spark a move lower in the S&P 500. Ironically, these bearish bets, placed in anticipation of a move lower, could end up fueling a move higher. As Ian points out, these levels of extremely bearish positioning have often been found at or near multi-year lows for the S&P 500. Markets rarely crash when everybody is expecting them to.
Quote of the Day
“When everybody is on one side of the boat,
you should go to the other side.”
– Jim Rogers
Top Links
Industry Performance and CPI – Bespoke
With the latest inflation data being released tomorrow, Bespoke examines how various industry groups have historically performed on CPI Day.
You Need Bulls in a Bull Market – All Star Charts
JC Parets shares his perspective on market sentiment.
Sensitive Sectors Are Holding the Keys to Unlock Upside Potential – StockCharts.com
Julius de Kempenaer takes a look at sector rotation within the S&P 500.
ETF Edge, April 10, 2023 – CNBC
Todd Sohn discusses the rise of buffered ETFs, which use derivatives to protect against downside risk.
Top Tweets
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) April 11, 2023
Realized volatility in the S&P500 has fallen off the proverbial cliff. $SPX $VIX pic.twitter.com/AdknfanQDZ
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) April 11, 2023
$SPY tracking 43% of avg 90-day volume, one of the lowest volume days of the year so far.
Not many sizing up ahead of CPI. pic.twitter.com/JPh3bJtVuL
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) April 11, 2023
Large-speculator positioning vs. SPX cyclical bottoms pic.twitter.com/E4L9cQnsfO
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) April 11, 2023
Net short positions in the lumber futures market at a record —@bespokeinvest pic.twitter.com/9JTDPI4g5a
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) April 11, 2023
Sugar mania continues as futures hit highest closing price in more than 11 years pic.twitter.com/5kuJB7LFU7
— Barchart (@Barchart) April 11, 2023
Gold (white) was leading gold miners (red) off the lows and the miners just woke up to take the lead. $GDX $GLD #GOLD pic.twitter.com/WqqoQ3MfwO
— Tony Greer (@TgMacro) April 11, 2023
$GDX:$GLD ratio still pointing to more upside in precious metals. pic.twitter.com/DbmgeMBe0T
— Against All Odds (@JasonP138) April 11, 2023
Chart of the Week – Portfolio Allocations to Gold
Under-Allocated: with gold making yet another attempt at breaking out through that all-important US$2000 level, it’s worth reflecting on this pair of charts… pic.twitter.com/jP8Zrig5mR
— Topdown Charts (@topdowncharts) April 11, 2023
Will former support in BTC near these prices turn into any resistance? A lot of market memory around here. pic.twitter.com/RxfBiDk65v
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) April 11, 2023
Bitcoin Returns since 2010… $BTC pic.twitter.com/QeqmGzb1al
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) April 11, 2023
Go ahead and sleep in tomorrow.
The market doesn't care about inflation any more. pic.twitter.com/KVlzA4DvdL
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) April 11, 2023