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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, April 27th, 2022
Indices: S&P 500 +0.21% | Dow +0.19% | Nasdaq 100 -0.05% | Russell 2000 -0.34%
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Materials led, gaining +1.48%. Communications lagged, dropping -2.23%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +0.39% to $102.10 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.94% to $1,886 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose for the fifth consecutive day by +0.69% to a five-year high.
Crypto: Bitcoin moved higher by +2.64% to $39,162. Ethereum dropped +2.10% to $2,870.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.834%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today’s Chart of the Day comes from Jeff Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader). The chart shows how the S&P 500 has historically performed in Midterm Election Years. The S&P 500 is currently down more than 12% YTD, marking one of the worst starts to a year. The bad news for the bulls is that seasonality usually peaks right about now, and doesn’t improve until around November. If stocks couldn’t even rally when seasonality was a tailwind these last few months, how will they perform when seasonality becomes a headwind over the next six months? For more on seasonality and the Presidential Cycle, check out this article.
Quote of the Day
“You don’t need analysts in a bull market,
and you don’t want them in a bear market.”
– Gerald Loeb
Top Links
A Closer Look At The Stock Market Sell-Off – LPL Financial Research
The team at LPL Financial Research puts this recent sell-off into perspective.
Welcome to the Weak Spot of the 4-Year Cycle – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch explains that the next two quarters have historically been the weakest spot of the 4-year Presidential Cycle.
Looking Out Over the Edge of the Cliff – Potomac Fund Management
Dan Russo highlights some ket takeaways from the current market environment.
VIX Call Buying Could Signal More Choppiness to Come – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White points out that the S&P 500 tends to struggle when VIX call buying spikes.
Are Semiconductors Breaking Down From Historic Momentum Peak? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble shows that Semiconductors continue to look vulnerable.
Join us in-person or virtually at the 49th Annual CMT Symposium on April 28th-29th in Washington D.C.
Top Tweets
Well, maybe there's some hope.
Here are the 12 most recent worst starts to a month, with three days to go (down 7% or more).
End of month bounces happened 11 of 12 times, up 2.8% on average. pic.twitter.com/9H6iiDKstw
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) April 27, 2022
This is the worst start to the year for S&P 500 since 1950 $SPY $SPX #stocks
Chart data 1990 to Current pic.twitter.com/CWOcDXMHDo
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) April 27, 2022
Other times $SPX has fallen >13% without it becoming a nasty bear market pic.twitter.com/IQuuihOzkK
— Urban Carmel (@ukarlewitz) April 27, 2022
The Nasdaq is on pace for its worst month since 2008. pic.twitter.com/NyW0f5VNCd
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) April 27, 2022
Markets trying to make a stand at important ⚓️VWAP levels on weekly timeframe
Still below decl 5 day MA on 15 min TF (bottom) as well as the WTD ⚓️VWAP (purple)
mixed messages prevail in oversold market$SPY $QQQ $IWM pic.twitter.com/jwPnZAZMFX
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) April 27, 2022
As of the close yesterday, the average stock is down -20%, which is back to the levels that were seen in early March. If the economy is heading for a recession or even a material slowdown, the equity sell-off is likely to get deeper. pic.twitter.com/ccYcXmAiTR
— Strategas Asset Management (@strategasasset) April 27, 2022
For those that like Fibonacci levels – here’s the $SPX from the Covid low to November high. Looks like we are at a key level to me. pic.twitter.com/YIAfN9Xp5q
— Jay Woods (@JayWoods3) April 27, 2022
"Consensus longs" continue to lag pic.twitter.com/h6QuD8yCmP
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) April 27, 2022
The US Dollar Index challenges its 2020 highs ~103. A decisive close above that level sets the path of least resistance higher toward 111.80. $DXY pic.twitter.com/jDpPVqZjPS
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) April 27, 2022
that said, it's been a tough year ?? pic.twitter.com/HH8IjH8ju2
— TradingView (@tradingview) April 27, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!