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Today’s Summary
Thursday, April 30th, 2020
Indices: US Stocks closed lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 288 points or 1.17%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.92% and 0.28%, respectively. Small-Caps underperformed significantly, with the Russell 2000 closing down 3.68%.
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Communications led, but still slipped 0.44%. Materials lagged, dropping 2.97%.
Commodities: The June Crude Oil futures contract surged 26.76% to $19.09 per barrel. Gold futures moved lower by 1.18% to $1,693 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell 0.55%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched higher to 0.638%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Big move higher for the S&P 500 this month, but some key technical levels could be troublesome. Index now chopping around 61.8% fib retracement. After that, there's the 3,000 mark, which coincides with the 200-dma. pic.twitter.com/LBfYtMKRYC
— Fred Imbert (@foimbert) April 30, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Fred Imbert (@foimbert). It is a bar chart of the S&P 500 over the past six months. April is now in the books, and it turned out to be the best month for the S&P 500 since 1987. The index has staged an impressive 30% rebound from the March 23rd low. However, Fred points out that a confluence of overhead resistance levels could prevent this rally from reaching all-time highs. For starters, the index needs to get above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the waterfall decline, around 2,930. If price passes this first test, it will quickly be faced with another potential speed bump – the 200-day moving average around 3,000. In addition, tomorrow marks the start of the “worst six months” for the index according to seasonality. Given these headwinds, “Sell in May & Go Away” doesn’t seem like the worst idea right now.
Quote of the Day
“KEEP IN MIND THAT progress is not always linear. It takes constant course correcting and often a lot of zigzagging. Unfortunate things happen, accidents occur, and setbacks are usually painful, but that does not mean we quit.”
– Buzz Aldrin (Astronaut)
Top Links
Time to Sell in May? – LPL Financial Research
The team at LPL Financial Research explains that while May-October has historically been the weakest six month period for the S&P 500, more recently, the index has managed to move higher throughout this period in seven of the last eight years.
Three Must-See Charts on Commodities, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 – Bloomberg
In this clip from Bloomberg, Ari Wald of Oppenheimer shares his technical perspective on commodities and equities.
Nasdaq 100 Running Out of Steam? – The Final Bar
In this episode of The Final Bar, David Keller and Todd Sohn discuss the current market environment and whether or not the Nasdaq can continue higher.
50-DMAs in the Rearview – Bespoke
Bespoke examines sector breadth by taking a look at the % of stocks within each sector that are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages.
What’s the Catalyst? – The Irrelevant Investor
Here’s a good read from Michael Batnick that underscores the problems associated with trading the news.
Top 10 Tweets
Stocks’ best month since January 1987.
My sanity’s worst month on record.
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) April 30, 2020
Stocks gapped DOWN the most ever in March.
Stocks gapped UP the most ever in April.
In 30 years of $SPY, this extreme Vol was *mostly* in transitions between Bull<>Bear markets.
Mean reversion is brutal and markets are merciless – be ready for everything in May.$ES_F $SPX pic.twitter.com/bA6sfmrsdK
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) April 30, 2020
How do we see the S&P500 Equal Weighted Index reacting at this level? pic.twitter.com/BuThjiiMyi
— Sam McCallum (@honeystocks1) April 30, 2020
S&P500's four biggest market cap companies $MSFT $APPL $GOOG $AMZN combined into a index has showed us a strong close above the 78.6% fib level in only 6 weeks.. next test ATH? $SPY $SPX pic.twitter.com/ZGtUtSXyVI
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) April 30, 2020
“Ain't nuthin' but a 'V' thang, baby,” says @jkrinskypga. But the SPX rally “puts it in a difficult spot. .. Have we seen that before? Somewhat. In 2000, the NDX fell ~40% from the March high to the May low, and then rallied 43% to the September high.” pic.twitter.com/yx6sLbJUVR
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) April 30, 2020
It's rare to see small-cap new highs this strong. pic.twitter.com/YQ4Yi9f73R
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) April 30, 2020
Our IWM Optimism Index (for small cap stocks) has reached 99, the highest level *EVER*
The 2nd highest reading was in Oct 2011, when stocks fell -12.8% over the next month. Less extreme readings also led to pullbacks pic.twitter.com/WF67uR9EsJ
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) April 30, 2020
A move >25 in this 15-day breadth indicator would gain our attention. pic.twitter.com/ohdpJNuF7n
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) April 29, 2020
At least in near-term, tech & energy sectors seem to be trading places, as energy’s relative strength has continued to improve despite fall in oil prices @bloomberg
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/hHOkBpqyp0— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 30, 2020
I think the collapse in Cheese futures is being under-covered here $BJ_F
They just 'Cut the Cheese' (in half) pic.twitter.com/Fw3SMbHkXa
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) April 30, 2020