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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, May 3rd, 2022
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.85% | S&P 500 +0.48% | Dow +0.20% | Nasdaq 100 +0.11%
Sectors: 9 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +2.80%. Consumer Staples lagged, falling -0.29%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -1.56% to $103.53 per barrel. Gold futures rose +0.25% to $1,868 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index slipped -0.12%.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.86% to $37,815. Ethereum dropped -2.50% to $2,784.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched lower to 2.975%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
From false breakout…come fast retracement!
That one "check" was missing in the recession box list. pic.twitter.com/9OiAyl3JRE— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) May 3, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Eric Conrads (@conradseric). It’s a daily chart of Copper over the past year and a half. Copper broke out to all-time highs just two months ago, however, that breakout quickly failed, and it’s now at year-to-date lows. It’s been consolidating within an uptrend since last May, however, that consolidation is resolving lower. Consolidations typically resolve in the direction of the underlying trend, but when they don’t, it’s a major red flag. As we know, Copper is perceived as a leading indicator for both the stock market and the economy. As Eric points out, Copper breaking down is further evidence that we could be nearing a recession.
Quote of the Day
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”
– F. Scott Fitzgerald
Top Links
Double Top Deja Vu: Is Doc Copper Topping Again? Fed Hopes So!!! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble takes a look at a potential long-term top in Copper.
Bond Market Massively Oversold – Bespoke
Bespoke points out that US Bonds are twice as far below their 200-day moving average as they’ve ever been.
Sector Deep Dive – Potomac Fund Management
Dan Russo examines the Financial sector.
Bitcoin’s sustained breakdown below $40,000 indicates a bearish long-term trend and indicates risk of a 29% sell-off, Fairlead’s Katie Stockton says – Business Insider
Katie Stockton shares her outlook on Bitcoin.
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Top Tweets
Could the market be any more delicately poised going into tomorrow's Interest rate hike? $IWM $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA pic.twitter.com/svQBXF5BUo
— Sam McCallum ??????? (@Honeystocks1) May 3, 2022
$VIX under 30 heading into the 2-day Fed meeting pic.twitter.com/TuMIRwoa0d
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) May 3, 2022
There have been 24 other corrections for the S&P 500 since WWII.
The avg correction was 14.3% and took 133 days.
The current correction is 13.9% and up to 117 days.
Yes, this isn't done and there could be more pain, but this isn't very out of the ordinary yet. pic.twitter.com/HpWnyEPHZ5
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) May 3, 2022
How brutal has 2022 been?
The S&P 500's average return following a down day is -0.18%. Following an up day, it's -0.16%.
This is the 2nd year ever that both the buy-the-dip and chase-the-rally crowds have been so screwed.
The other was 1932. pic.twitter.com/gSTQi2BsSb
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) May 3, 2022
A narrow market is vulnerable to further downside until it demonstrates a credible reversal based on breadth thrust or price momentum. Current setting is both oversold and dangerous. pic.twitter.com/PdBqAosXlU
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) May 3, 2022
Not a bullish chart pic.twitter.com/3XmRsRVLTw
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) May 3, 2022
Weakness or washout? The general market just experienced three 10:1 down days of declining versus advancing volume, in six trading sessions without any intervening 10:1 up days for the first time since February 24 – 27, 2020, which was right at the start of the Covid decline. pic.twitter.com/uIXFYjYS39
— Mark Minervini (@markminervini) May 3, 2022
Commodities are outpacing stocks significantly this year … @Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is outperforming S&P 500 by 11.6% this quarter after a 29% spread in the first quarter
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/85XTbH5xOS— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) May 3, 2022
YTD low for Copper… oversold, but on guard for bigger top? pic.twitter.com/LVPKnNsulD
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) May 3, 2022
#copper – Watching Chilean Peso for possible "tell" on Copper. pic.twitter.com/nMf9gxwin1
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) May 3, 2022
The copper to gold ratio is nearing a key inflection point. pic.twitter.com/ved043Wozz
— Louis Spector (@EastCoastCharts) May 3, 2022
Second highest searches for 'Margin Call' second only to 2008, but with an ~15% decline vs -45% back then. Speaks obv to the level of speculation etc this time around. $SPX $ARKK pic.twitter.com/OUrMUxf3fU
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) May 3, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!