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Todayās Summary
Thursday, May 4, 2023
Indices:Ā NasdaqĀ -0.37%Ā |Ā S&PĀ 500Ā -0.72%Ā |Ā DowĀ -0.86%Ā |Ā Russell 2000Ā -1.18%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gainingĀ +0.93%. Communications lagged, fallingĀ -1.61%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures were flat and continue to trade aroundĀ to $68.56 per barrel. GoldĀ futures roseĀ +0.92%Ā toĀ $2,056 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index roseĀ +0.22%Ā to $101.45.
Crypto:Ā Bitcoin fellĀ -0.63%Ā to $28,851. Ethereum fellĀ -1.42%Ā to $1,878.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.382%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Gold is testing final resistance at $2063/oz. today, defining the upper bound of a wide long-term range, a breakout from which would be a bullish multi-year development, noting long-term momentum is now positive behind gold per the monthly MACD #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/03pMnGmUXv
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) May 4, 2023
Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Katie Stockton (@StocktonKatie). It’s a monthly chart of Gold futures over the past 18 years.Ā Gold poked its head above theĀ all-time closing highs earlier todayĀ before pulling back slightly.Ā It still closed at a new 52-week high today, but we can’t officially call it an all-timeĀ highĀ untilĀ it closes above $2,070/oz. The yellow metal has formed what resembles a cup & handle pattern, with an 11-year base asĀ the cup and a three-year base as the handle. Katie points out that it’s above an upward-sloping 12-month moving average (red) and the Ichimoku Cloud (purple). Also, the monthly MACD has recently flipped into positive territory. As Katie suggests,Ā Gold has set the stageĀ for a multi-year breakout and rally.Ā
Quote of the Day
“Bear markets are like bad colds. You hate them, but you know eventually you’ll feel better.”
– Marvin McIntyre
Top Links
Your Tiny Banks Don’t Matter – All Star Charts
JC Parets shares his thoughts on the crash in Regional Banks and its impact on the major indices.
Sentiment Slouches – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
What Small-Cap Underperformance Could Mean for Stocks – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines how the S&P 500 has historically performed amidĀ Small Cap underperformance.
Midterm Best Six Months 19-0 – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch points out that the ‘best six months’ for the S&P 500 remain undefeated in midterm years.
Top Tweets
Daily Market Mood: Mixed/Risk-Off
1. Stocks fall for fourth day
2. Worst stretch for S&P since March 13
3. Unusually strong volume
4. $VIX back above 20
5. Bonds mixed/downS&P is on the cusp of going sub-4000 again and into bottom part of the range.
Jobs report may prove key.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) May 4, 2023
Monday doji, then 3 straight days of intraday selling. $SPY pic.twitter.com/1UikgGts2H
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) May 4, 2023
Microcaps making a cycle low… Will large caps follow? $IWC $SPY pic.twitter.com/3Uumc1el4n
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) May 4, 2023
Majority of U.S. small cap ETFs have heavy exposure to Regional Banksā¦ different story globally where thereās a larger tilt to Industrials. Not the prettiest but a place to seek out as alternative exposure down the cap scale. pic.twitter.com/s5q2mgC9T4
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) May 4, 2023
Dear God… pic.twitter.com/TP4Xr2jgfL
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) May 4, 2023
To my knowledge, the banking sector ā until now ā has never posted a lower low following breakaway momentum. Adjust expectations accordingly. pic.twitter.com/MWHtRCxljJ
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) May 4, 2023
10Yr Treasury yields have had a pretty solid floor around the 3.25-3.32% range for the last few months. Back on that doorstep today š pic.twitter.com/cqbMauxJuL
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) May 4, 2023
Yo, Charts – All US Yields from 3 Mo – 30 Yr plus Fed Funds (thick maroon line). Fed Funds now > entire YC (incl. 3 Mo) is just more confirmation that yields have topped. What comes next aināt likely to be pretty. pic.twitter.com/niH8FIMvdk
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) May 4, 2023
We added some #gold exposure to our tactical models about six weeks ago.
By no means are we huge gold bugs or do we think the world is about to end.
With that, anything that is breaking out of a base like this, we want to have some exposure to it. pic.twitter.com/tbGsY4vCFm
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) May 4, 2023
Gold futures rallied hard into resistance and now pulling back.$GC_F pic.twitter.com/AhlPjC4iUl
— David Rath (@DJwrath) May 4, 2023
Interestingly, gold is getting surprisingly little media attention: pic.twitter.com/M4bJzOpTXU
ā Nick Reece (@nicholastreece) May 4, 2023