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Todayโs Summary
Thursday, May 11, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq +0.31% | S&P 500 -0.17% | Dow -0.66% | Russell 2000 -0.84%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Communications led, gaining +1.00%. Energy lagged, falling -1.20%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -2.33% to $70.87 per barrel. Gold futures fell -0.81% to $2,021 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.64% to $102.07.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -2.17% to $27,017. Ethereum fell -2.41% to $1,798.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.388%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The copper-gold ratio chart is breaking down to multi-year lows, a potential warning sign for stocks given the disparate economic growth sensitivities between the metals. Correlation data between copper-gold and the 10-year also implies risk is to the downside for yields. pic.twitter.com/btXLEB5Ydd
— Adam Turnquist, CMT (@adam_turnquist) May 11, 2023
Todayโs Chart of the Day was shared by Adam Turnquist (@adam_turnquist). Itโs a chart of the Copper/Gold ratio (top) and the US 10-year Treasury Yield (bottom). The Copper/Gold ratio dropped to its lowest level in over a year today. Copper is a risk-on metal that typically moves higher during periods of economic growth. On the other hand, Gold is a risk-off metal that often thrives during economic uncertainty. As Adam points out, new lows from the Copper/Gold are a potential warning sign for stocks and the economy. Also, this ratio is positively correlated to the 10-year yield, as shown in the lower panel. The 10-year yield has been holding support around 3.25% for most of 2023. However, the Copper/Gold ratio is hinting that yields will resolve lower.
Quote of the Day
โThe most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.โ
โ Peter Thiel
Trendlines > Headlines
The latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines is out!
This week, James Bartelloni joined us to talk technicals. James is a former Top Gun pilot turned technician and the founder of BartsCharts.com. We discussed his unorthodox approach to analyzing the markets and took a close look at Banks and the VIX.
Top Links
Banking Concerns are โOverdoneโ: Jay Woods โ Fox Business News
In this clip, Jay Woods shares his perspective on the crash in Regional Banks and its impact on the broader market.
Commodity Price Patterns Signaled Caution Despite Russian Invasion! โ Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble looks at the reversal in Commodities over the past year.
โDeath Crossโ in 10-year Yield Highlights the End of the Longest Bullish Stretch in at Least 30 Years โ Market Watch
Katie Stockton shares her thoughts on what could be next for Treasury yields.
Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller โ Sohn 2023
Hereโs another recent interview with legendary money manager Stanley Druckenmiller.
Top Tweets
$SPY whole lotta nothin last 6 weeks pic.twitter.com/lZOEGTTtKM
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ๐ (@MikeZaccardi) May 11, 2023
Have to stay flexible in this environment but here is one potential outcome I am keeping an eye out for — a repeat of late 2021/early 2022 when the $SPX was rangebound for two months, broke out, and then failed. $SPY pic.twitter.com/qIFb55uq0R
— Andrew Adams CFA, CMT (@DayTraderGator) May 11, 2023
$NDX breadth a little suspect here. Doesn't mean it can't keep going though. pic.twitter.com/Ub5wleg7ef
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) May 11, 2023
$QQQ vs $IWM
Nasdaq 100 vs Russell 2000Genuinely excited to see where this weekly candle closes tmrw pic.twitter.com/L5purxExPG
— Pratty โ (@PrattyCharts) May 11, 2023
Tech stocks have spent almost 3 years digesting the internet bubble highs. Looking more and more like a bullish resolution pic.twitter.com/Qikh9DvROX
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) May 11, 2023
Copper/Gold ratio on a new cycle low. History suggests 10Y yield could fall.
h/t @verrone_chris and @StrategasRP pic.twitter.com/NkxYNq2f1F
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) May 11, 2023
#Silver more patience required…$SLV pic.twitter.com/HGAYUqSAun
— Conor White, CMT, CIM (@ConorWhiteRJ) May 11, 2023
Gold in the orange and silver in the black YTD.
Will Gold follow the lead after silver's -5% day? pic.twitter.com/0Ua3EW2XEj
— Tyler Lovingood (@Tyler_Lovingood) May 11, 2023
Gold long term chart, hard to hate too much on it. pic.twitter.com/gB0ye6g19h
— PP (@PetrTrades) May 11, 2023
So which Chinese stocks are we buying? pic.twitter.com/XfuLE1WxF9
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) May 11, 2023