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Todayโs Summary
Friday, May 19, 2023
Indices: S&P 500 -0.14% | Nasdaq -0.22% | Dow -0.33% | Russell 2000 -0.62%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, rising +0.77%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, falling -0.84%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.35% to $71.69 per barrel. Gold futures rose +1.11% to $1,982 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.32% to $103.19.
Crypto: Bitcoin inched higher by +0.25% to $26,886. Ethereum rose +0.62% to $1,812.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a two-month high of 3.678%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
One for the road. Have a good weekend everybody $SPY $TLT pic.twitter.com/Zb1UKhXjr9
— Austin Harrison, CFA, CMT (@meanstoatrend) May 19, 2023
Todayโs Chart of the Day was shared by Austin Harrison (@meanstoatrend). The S&P 500 broke out to nine-month highs on an absolute basis this week. Austin points out that itโs also breaking out relative to Bonds ($SPY/$TLT). This ratio closed at all-time highs after emerging from a seven-month base within a secular uptrend. If Stocks are in a bull market, you want to see them outperforming their alternative, and thatโs exactly what weโre starting to see.
Quote of the Day
โSometimes a loss is the best thing that can happen. It teaches you what you should have done next time.โ
โ Snoop Dogg
Trendlines > Headlines
In this weekโs episode, Jay Kaeppel of SentimenTrader joins us to share his take on current market conditions. We discuss Sentiment, Positioning, Commodities, Gold, and more!
Top Links
10 Bad Takes On This Market โ The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz gives ten counterpoints to the bear case.
Russell 2000 Best Week Before Memorial Day, Up 75% of the Time โ Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how the major indices have performed the week before Memorial Day (next week).
Breakout Test In Play for Tech, Says Joe Friday โ Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the Equal Weight Nasdaq 100 is attempting to break out.
Stocks and Bonds Part Ways โ Bespoke
Bespoke highlights the recent divergence between Stocks ($SPY) and Bonds ($TLT).
Follow the Money โ LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist examines sentiment and positioning.
Top Tweets
$SPY The S&P 500 secures its highest weekly close in 9 months! ๐ฉ pic.twitter.com/ijSK8VYpnm
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) May 19, 2023
Weekly $SPX update: headed for the highest closing levels since last August. Whether warranted or not, debt ceiling optimism and AI drove the gains this week. pic.twitter.com/iZ8s3Z2c3r
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) May 19, 2023
I found 14 other times the NASDAQ-100 made a new 52-wk high after going at least 6 months without one.
You tell me, but these tend to happen in uptrends I think. Higher a yr later all 14 times.
Note, this just happened yesterday (after nearly 18 months w no new high). pic.twitter.com/VnfLfP0shm
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) May 19, 2023
As of yesterdayโs close, S&P 500 has now retraced slightly more than 50% of its decline since January 2022
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/giG8b8FkMx— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) May 19, 2023
Semis $SMH strong breakout week, to a 15-month weekly closing high. pic.twitter.com/fqnu2jFnLX
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) May 19, 2023
I know the "only a few stocks driving returns" narrative sounds scary but according to Empirical Research, there really isn't much to read into forward returns when trailing performance has been concentrated in the top of the market. pic.twitter.com/vqbmcYYitB
— Tony Welch, CFA, CFPยฎ, CMT (@tonywelch17) May 19, 2023
We still haven't seen a VIX close below 15 since the pandemic began. The VIX has now closed above 15 for 826 trading days dating back to January 2020 just before COVID hit. Throughout the 2010s the VIX was below 15 more than it was above it. pic.twitter.com/upOoHKNDyW
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) May 19, 2023
Short vol has been a good trade over the last two months. Has it run out of time? pic.twitter.com/yWLztQGRFs
— Jim Carroll (@vixologist) May 19, 2023
Bonds $AGG down 6 days in a row. pic.twitter.com/zOSRTeFbAT
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ๐ (@MikeZaccardi) May 19, 2023
Rates heading back up or what? pic.twitter.com/yeVFSdQyfE
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) May 19, 2023
Artificial Intelligence is only a "baby bubble" when compared to historical asset price surges pic.twitter.com/orwVvW4rFd
— Barchart (@Barchart) May 19, 2023