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Todayās Summary
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Indices:Ā NasdaqĀ -0.44%Ā | S&P 500Ā -0.74%Ā | DowĀ -1.53%Ā | Russell 2000Ā -1.60%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Tech led but still fellĀ -0.81%. Real Estate lagged, droppingĀ -2.12%.
Commodities:Ā Crude Oil futures fellĀ -0.90%Ā to $76.87 per barrel. Gold futures droppedĀ -2.33%Ā to $2,337 per oz.
Currencies:Ā The US Dollar Index roseĀ +0.13%Ā to $105.05.
Crypto:Ā Bitcoin fellĀ -1.70%Ā to $67,945. Ethereum roseĀ +1.22%Ā to $3,782.
Volatility:Ā The Volatility Index roseĀ +3.90%Ā to 12.78.
Interest Rates:Ā The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.477%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Sell in May and Go Away? pic.twitter.com/Pr7JkYlqpJ
— Jeffrey W. Huge, CMT (@Alpha_Insights) May 23, 2024
š Todayās Chart of the Day was shared by Jeff Huge (@Alpha_Insights).
- The S&P 500 ($SPX) engulfed the prior six sessions today, fallingĀ -0.75%. ThisĀ bearish engulfing candleĀ will be confirmed if $SPX continues lower tomorrow. Ā On a brighter note, the index is still above its March highs.
- In addition to this bearish reversal candle, Jeff highlights aĀ bearish divergenceĀ between the Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Volatility of the Volatility Index ($VVIX).
- This divergence is bullish for volatility in the near term and, therefore, bearish for the stock market. The $VVIX was also diverging like thisĀ before the Covid crashĀ and other meaningful sell-offs.
The takeaway:Ā The S&P 500 formed a bearish engulfing candle today after an ugly reversal. Meanwhile, the $VIX and $VVIX have formed a bearish divergence over the past three weeks. This is certainly a red flag in the near term, but thereās no reason to panic until $SPX violates the March highs.
Quote of the Day
āThe best investors Iāve seen all have an above-average ability to change their mind.ā
ā Joel Tillinghast
Top Links
Profit Taking Arrives – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss recaps this week’s price action.
The Mad Mob is Front-Running NVIDIA – The Bear Traps Report
Larry McDonald looks at what could happen if $NVDA surpasses $AAPL in market cap.
Nvidia is ‘Central to the Growing Tech Story’: Strategist – Yahoo Finance
Jay Woods shares his thoughts on $NVDA’s earnings report.
Market Strength Fading After Memorial Day – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how stocks have historically performed the week after Memorial Day.Ā
Gold Miners (GDX) Facing 13-Year Resistance!!! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) has coiled into a pennant pattern over the past decade.
Top Tweets
The market is fully red, except for Nvidia, $NVDA. pic.twitter.com/7IsWt9ZHDD
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 23, 2024
$SPY bearish engulfing the previous 6 days. Similar to that April 4 candle.
But will it follow through tomorrow ahead of the long weekend? pic.twitter.com/igvb1edGju
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) May 23, 2024
Today's SPX candlestick is not a bearish engulfing. In Nison's book, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, he writes on engulfing patterns: "…the second real body of the engulfing candle should be the opposite color of the first real body." Pg 43. Bulkowski says the same. pic.twitter.com/vB5dkQYosX
— Louis Spector, CMT (@EastCoastCharts) May 23, 2024
$NVDA dominated trading today, with the largest gain (only 54 $SPX stocks closed higher). $86 billion of $NVDA shares traded today, which was a quarter of all dollars traded: pic.twitter.com/A8i8n8OHlm
— Optuma (@Optuma) May 23, 2024
The S&P 500 $SPY suffered a bearish engulfing candle at a new high.
Even worse (on a chart), it gapped to a new high then closed at a 5-day low.
If you sold based on these patterns any other time, you'd be a loser pretty much every time. pic.twitter.com/XefDUPN3p0
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) May 23, 2024
How significant is todayās big decline?
š¢ Through yesterday, the $SPX had logged 11 gains and 5 losses in May.
š¢ There have been three 1% gains and no 1% declines this month so far.
š“ The biggest loss before today had been 34 basis points (May 1st).
š The last time theā¦ pic.twitter.com/i09SW6wAKt
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) May 23, 2024
Today is the 100th day of 2024.
The S&P 500 is set to be up double digits YTD.
Recent years to do this? 2021, 2019, 2013, 1998, 1997, 1996, and 1995. šs might remember those years.
Those years weren't the worst years to look for continued gains the second half of the year. pic.twitter.com/3PtImenaxf
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) May 23, 2024
Is this enough relative damage for the #transports versus #industrials. Underperforming by 10 percentage points YTD, the worst since 2019. An economic bellwether or more opportunity? pic.twitter.com/4pnO1X1Lrk
— Frances Horodelski (@fhoro) May 23, 2024
At -3.7%, this is the worst 2-day return for #Gold since last February (15 months) pic.twitter.com/cnnDWQCXCJ
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) May 23, 2024
At $2.6 trillion, Nvidia's market cap is now $890 billion higher than all of the companies in the S&P 500 Energy sector … combined.
The total net income of the Energy sector is $128 billion vs. $43 billion for Nvidia. $NVDA $XLEhttps://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih pic.twitter.com/zo21P3wI1t
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) May 23, 2024
At every point on this chart you could have made a plausible case that:
1) the future was dim
2) the young generation was lazy
3) politicians were screwing everything up pic.twitter.com/9NXJ9lB2Rr— Morgan Housel (@morganhousel) May 23, 2024