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Todayās Summary
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Indices:Ā Russell 2000Ā +1.23%Ā | DowĀ +0.80%Ā | S&P 500Ā +0.45%Ā | NasdaqĀ -0.16%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Financials led, risingĀ +1.74%. Communications lagged, fallingĀ -0.54%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures roseĀ +0.43%Ā to $69.86 per barrel. Gold futures fellĀ -0.22%Ā to a three-month low of $1,918 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index roseĀ +0.37%Ā toĀ $103.35.
Crypto: Bitcoin roseĀ +1.21%Ā to $30,444. Ethereum gainedĀ +1.33%Ā to $1,852.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a three-month high of 3.842%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
What could go right for small-caps? Breaking a 17-month losing streak of consecutive negative 1yr price returns is a start. pic.twitter.com/TjNOoVce3A
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) June 29, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn).Ā The Russell 2000 is outperforming by a decent margin this week after hitting 22-year lows on a relative basisĀ last weekĀ ($IWM/$SPY). The Russell 2000 has fumbled several attempts to stage a meaningful rebound this year. Even for the Bulls, it’s hard to believe this latest attempt will be any different. However, Todd points out that this time could be different for Small Caps, as momentum has become a tailwind again. The Russell 2000’s rolling 12-month return has turned positive this month after spending 17 consecutive months in negative territory. This was the second-longest streak of negative momentum over the past four decades.Ā Looking at the ten prior streaks that came close, the Russell 2000 was higher each time by an average ofĀ +26.28%.
Quote of the Day
“The self-aware trader knows when ‘it’s my market’ and goes into opportunity-seeking mode. That same trader knows when ‘it’s not m market’ and preserves capital.”Ā
āDr. Brett Steenbarger
Top Links
Second Half Setup – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist examines the outlook for stocks in the back half of 2023.
Mega-Cap Stocks Have Led U.S. Market Rally So Far This Year. Hereās Why That Could Change in the Third Quarter – Market Watch
John Krinsky discusses a potential rotation out of Mega Caps.
More Rotation is Coming – All Star Charts
JC Parets looks at potential rotation into Energy stocks.
There’s Something About June 29th – Bespoke
Here’s a good reminder not to trade headlines.
Top Tweets
On average, $SPX is flat for June but with a day to go this is the 2nd best June since 2000 – behind only 2019's +6.89%: pic.twitter.com/kGXRMctt2c
— Optuma (@Optuma) June 29, 2023
June so far: $IWM +7.6%$SPY +5.2%$QQQ +4.75$VEU +3.3%$AGG -0.6% pic.twitter.com/u15trXRBr0
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) June 29, 2023
Semi-annual gain for the Wilshire 5000. We've had a pretty good start to the year. pic.twitter.com/pnqMJ7RR0N
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) June 29, 2023
As a trend-follower, it's all about:
1) defining the trend
2) following the trend
3) anticipating when the trend may be exhausted
By my read, the trend for $SPX $SPY is still quite positive. pic.twitter.com/2AFNmmDy2J— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) June 29, 2023
The new 52-week highs list keeps getting longer. pic.twitter.com/2K3gJQQuN9
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) June 29, 2023
$KRE – Nice head fake. pic.twitter.com/WntQ9wo7ju
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) June 29, 2023
Metals with $XME with a little breakout today. pic.twitter.com/VIojbxuhXZ
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA šØš¦ (@MichaelNaussCMT) June 29, 2023
The VIX has been trending down over the last 6-9 months, while HY credit spreads have hovered around 500bps. Spreads were about half as wide when the VIX was last near these levels. More evidence of bonds sending different messages from stocks. pic.twitter.com/5k6ks44ZUo
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) June 29, 2023
At no point since February 2021 has the slope of the 1-year moving average for TLT been positive.
1 month, 3 month, 6 month and 1 year MAs shown along with 10 day slopes pic.twitter.com/MGoVtajGIE
— Scott Brown, CMT (@scottcharts) June 29, 2023
#Bitcoin $XBT Bitcoin ~ 3.50 year cycle? pic.twitter.com/IVfqKQTTKm
— Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap) June 29, 2023
Miners and the things they mine… pic.twitter.com/zGUKThmXsw
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) June 29, 2023
So Uncle Warren Buffett has bought more Occidental Petroleum and increased stake to 25%.
The chart looks very straight forward. $OXY $XLE $XOP pic.twitter.com/IXs5psVf9R
— Sam McCallum (@Honeystocks1) June 29, 2023
Buffett keeps buying $OXY; Saylor keeps buying $BTC.
Both cite inflation, are holding for the "long-term," and neither is interested in the other's position. pic.twitter.com/kq8XoQpdso
— Brian G (@alphacharts) June 29, 2023