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Today’s Summary
Thursday, June 30th, 2022
Indices: Russell 2000 -0.66% | Dow -0.82% | S&P 500 -0.88% | Nasdaq 100 -1.33%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 Sectors closed higher. Utilities led, gaining +1.11%. Energy lagged, falling -2.11%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -3.66% to $105.76 per barrel. Gold futures moved lower by -0.56% to $1,807 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.34%.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -5.93% to $18,904. Ethereum slid -6.30% to $1,030.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 3.017%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
2022 first half stats pic.twitter.com/iveLIlhh18
— Jared Blikre (@SPYJared) June 30, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jared Blikre (@SPYJared). The first half of the year is over, and it was definitely one for the history books! The S&P 500 lost 20.56%, marking the worst first half of a year since 1970. Other major indices, like the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, have never experienced worse starts to a year than this. To make matters worse, Bonds are also off to a terrible start this year. In fact, Stocks & Bonds haven’t been down together for two consecutive quarters like this since 2008. These stats should come as no surprise to daily market observers, but for passive investors who check their statements quarterly, this amount of damage is going to be hard to ignore.
Quote of the Day
“The stock market is a better economic forecaster than economists.”
– Walter Deemer
Top Links
Where Have All the Bulls Gone? – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
First Trading Day of July Most Bullish Day of Year – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch takes a look at how Stocks have historically performed on the first trading day of July (tomorrow).
The Bear Market Keys – Honey Stocks Charting
Sam McCallum highlights some charts to beware of in the coming weeks.
Is Bitcoin Just Biding Time? – PFT Trading
Greg Rieben shares his thoughts on Bitcoin and what he’s watching for signs of a bottom.
Fill the Gap Podcast with Guest, John Bollinger – The CMT Association
In this podcast, Tyler Wood and David Lundgren sit down with John Bollinger, creator of the famous Bollinger Band Indicator.
Top Tweets
Outside of energy, healthcare, telecom, insurance, and some aerospace/defense, the first half of 2022 has been absolutely brutal for US equity investors. pic.twitter.com/lhiMXgnKGm
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) June 30, 2022
This series goes back to 1946.
(via @bespokeinvest) $SPX pic.twitter.com/0BQVK3BxSM
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) June 30, 2022
Healthcare, new relative highs.⬆️
Semis, new relative lows. ⬇️$SOX $SPHC $SPX pic.twitter.com/LE4ceBid5c— Shane C. Murphy, CMT (@murphycharts) June 29, 2022
The current risk-on / risk-off picture… $SPHB vs $SPLV at an 18-month low…$RCD vs $RHS at a 2-year low…$HYG vs $IEI at a 20-month low…#copper vs #gold at a 16-month low…
These moves lower don't bode well for #stocks overall $SPY $SPX $IWM $QQQ $NYA $COMPX pic.twitter.com/2mIEss1Vft
— Grant Hawkridge (@granthawkridge) June 30, 2022
Good chance $XLE undercuts 200dma near $66, as bear markets typically trash all sectors. $STUDY pic.twitter.com/7nzGWkpjEx
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) June 30, 2022
Crude continues to struggle around those previous 2011 highs, now seeing a loss of it's intermediate term rate of trend…$CL_F pic.twitter.com/roZqWqCM8C
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) June 30, 2022
False breakout and took out the speed line on the headline index. Weighted to energy as well (see individual components etc).$DBC pic.twitter.com/aosOaGLlTB
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) June 30, 2022
I hate to bother anyone as they prepare for a long weekend… but just FYI:
The financial markets are at a critical juncture(!!!)#sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/QTLcdRsEOy— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) June 30, 2022
"The 5-year, 5-year forward breakeven — projecting inflation starting 5 years from now — dropped below its level from much of 2018, before the pandemic. The bond market is saying inflation is no longer anything to worry about."
—@JohnAuthers, @Opinion https://t.co/eeQh5s6y9v pic.twitter.com/vE5J7fXsc4— Steve Matthews (@SteveMatthews12) June 30, 2022
The flip from "inflationary fears" to "recessionary fears" would get a boost odds-wise if $IEF can breakout/hold-breakout relative to $SPY. TBD
Click image to enlarge.
Bonds vs. Stocks pic.twitter.com/VasRNKmQAT— Chris Ciovacco (@CiovaccoCapital) June 30, 2022
Is TLT carving out a bottom here as the probability of a recession increases? Inflation is now old news. pic.twitter.com/RHNhX7sZZc
— Wesley Mattox (@WesleyJMattox) June 30, 2022
10-Yr Treasury yield fell below 3%. Tell me markets are afraid of recession without telling me markets are afraid of recession. pic.twitter.com/Jov9L3TyWQ
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) June 30, 2022
#Bitcoin is about to close -40% in June
– the worst month ever! ? pic.twitter.com/rQ2JckE7rF— Bitcoin Archive ??? (@BTC_Archive) June 30, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!