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Today’s Summary
Friday, June 30, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq +1.60% | S&P 500 +1.23% |Dow +0.84% | Russell 2000 +0.38%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed higher. Technology led, rising +1.59%. Real Estate lagged but still rose +0.51%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.12% to $70.64 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.60% to $1,929 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.42% to $102.92.
Crypto: Bitcoin was flat and continues to trade at $30,469. Ethereum gained +4.38% to $1,933.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 3.843%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$SPX: 4 traits that have defined 2023 (especially Q2) and were missing in 2022:
1-Bullish patterns have worked.
2-Bearish patterns have failed.
3-The number of +/-1% moves have dramatically decreased.
4-The number of +1% gains have outnumbered 1% losses. pic.twitter.com/Ag8es3E8M5
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) June 30, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri). The S&P 500 closed at new 52-week highs today, scoring a positive close for the week, month, and quarter. With the first half of 2023 in the books, Frank highlights some of the key differences between this year’s price action and last year’s. For starters, bullish patterns have been working again, while bearish patterns have been failing. Breakouts are finally starting to stick as former resistance levels turn into support. Even the obvious breakout levels (like 4200 & 4300) are being respected. Some of the last year’s sharpest declines began as failed breakouts. Frank also points out that we’ve seen fewer +/-1% days in 2023, and +1% days are outnumbering -1% days. This change in price behavior should bode well for bulls in the back half of the year.
Quote of the Day
“Great things are done by a series of small things brought together.”
–Vincent van Gogh
Top Links
First Trading Day of July – S&P 500 Up 12 Straight – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch examines how stocks have historically performed on the first trading day in July.
Stock Market Analysis Anchored VWAP June 30 2023 – Alphatrends
Brian Shannon analyzes this week’s price action and lays out a few key levels to watch in the near term.
Nobody Knows Anything, 2023 First Half Edition -The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz shares his thoughts on the first half of the year.
Bull Stampede Back in Action; Any Bears Left? – The Trade Risk
Evan Medeiros looks at some of the key trends and noteworthy moves from the past week.
In Case You Missed it…
Here’s a replay of yesterday’s live event, where we introduced some of our exclusive new reports and trade ideas, like The Buzz and more!
Top Tweets
We are looking at a pretty aggressive way to end the week, June and the first half of 2023 from the $SPX. Is this uncovered confidence or window dressing for the turnover of the period? pic.twitter.com/tcwRBYKPm4
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) June 30, 2023
$SPY up 4 straight months.
Closes on the first-half high.
Bullish marubozu June candle. @stockcharts @CMTAssociation pic.twitter.com/eJAKobe69z— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 30, 2023
Nasdaq-100 +38.8%, best first half on record – Dow Jones Market Data pic.twitter.com/NsuUeSThsG
— Eric Wallerstein (@ericwallerstein) June 30, 2023
The Nasdaq's maximum drawdown in the first half was 8.7%, the smallest since 2.17. pic.twitter.com/GeerPrXUhe
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 30, 2023
For whatever it's worth, we have a classical Dow Theory buy signal. Watching to see if the averages can hold their August 2022 highs. pic.twitter.com/pBqux2pAdq
— Louis Spector, CMT (@EastCoastCharts) June 30, 2023
Yo, Charts – pic.twitter.com/DE34iqAzl3
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) June 30, 2023
Are we sure it's a tech-led rally?
Industrials ETF $XLI closed today with its highest monthly close ever… before the Tech Sector ETF $XLK.
Narratives were meant to be busted. pic.twitter.com/OdxIWKOkQq
— Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades) June 30, 2023
Cruise Stocks have been on an absolute tear this quarter!$CCL +84%$NCLH + 62%$RCL +59% pic.twitter.com/eKU2P4pQcL
— Barchart (@Barchart) June 30, 2023
Once a company became the highest-cap stock in the S&P 500, did it pay to own it rather than the SP500 index? This @NDR_Research analysis (since 1972) shows the answer is no. SP500 returned more than 6.6x more than the highest-cap stock. Though AAPL, lately, has beaten the trend. pic.twitter.com/sECDWfC3xN
— Day Hagan Asset Management (@DayHagan_Invest) June 30, 2023
Here's one of my favorite charts from our quarterly outlook call today; it shows how dollar weakness is associated with relative strength from EM…the dollar appears overbought versus the Chinese Renminbi, for one #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/lKb6aSqGsK
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) June 30, 2023
First monthly close over the AVWAP from all-time highs in $BTCUSD #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/AYBMCJvLpL
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA 🇨🇦 (@MichaelNaussCMT) June 30, 2023
Big difference between $UBER and $LYFT pic.twitter.com/cl8Mxutftg
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) June 30, 2023