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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, July 5th, 2022
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +1.68% | Russell 2000 +0.79% | S&P 500 +0.16% | Dow -0.42%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 Sectors closed higher. Communications led, gaining +2.32%. Energy lagged, dropping -3.97%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures tumbled -8.19% to $99.55 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -2.09% to $1,764 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index had its best day since 2020, jumping +1.28% to its highest level since 2002.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +0.86% to $20,370. Ethereum inched up +0.23% to $1,153.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 2.809%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
That US Dollar though…?$DXY #USD pic.twitter.com/xMOId7h3vB
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) July 5, 2022
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Greg Rieben (@gregrieben). Today, the Dollar Index had its best day since 2020, rising to its highest level in 20 years. Dollar strength is generally a headwind for risk assets including Stocks, Commodities, and Crypto. It has been rising all year, but now it’s breaking out of a five-year base. You know what they say about big bases… “The bigger the base, the higher in space.” If the Dollar continues to move north, we’ll likely see further pressure on risk assets.
Quote of the Day
“Does it really matter whether the S&P 500 is down 19.9% or 20.1%? I prefer the old-school definition of a bear market: nerve-racking.”
– Howard Marks
Top Links
The Worst First Half Ever – The Irrelevant Investor
Michel Batnick points out that risk-on & risk-off assets both had a terrible first half in 2022.
Second Quarter Recap – State of the Market – Means to a Trend
Austin Harrison breaks down the first half of the year and looks at what could be next in the second half.
Red, White, and Gloom – The Weekly Trend
In this podcast, Ian McMillan, Dan Gorghuber, and Kevin Firari discuss some of the most important technical developments across the markets, including the correction in Commodities, the breakout in the Dollar, and more.
“Guilty Until Proven Innocent” with Brian Shannon | Trendlines Over Headlines – The Chart Report
In case you missed it, check out our first episode of Trendlines over Headlines, with special guest, Brian Shannon.
The Broker Who Saved America – The Reformed Broker
In honor of Independence Day, Josh Brown shares a fascinating story about Haym Soloman, a financier who was instrumental in helping America win the Revolutionary War.
Top Tweets
Recession worries intensified, the 10-Yr fell by >10bps, inflation expectations fell, as did rate hike expectations. In turn, Growth caught a bid and Energy took it on the chin with sub-$100 oil. That's a wiiide one day sector spread from best-to-worst. pic.twitter.com/WZuzb59uHu
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) July 5, 2022
2. Nightmare on Asset Allocation Street. 60/40 stock/bond portfolio posted worst 1H since 1932. 2/5 pic.twitter.com/F1MvlHm1nZ
— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) July 5, 2022
$XLE Looks like it might be looking to roll over again.. pic.twitter.com/zrzRPufLhh
— TogetherWeTrade (@TogetherWeTrad3) July 5, 2022
Lots of inflation-sensitive exposures breaking down below their 2018 highs…
Maybe the market knows something Central Banks don't? $XLE pic.twitter.com/6w9Gmf1tX0
— Mike Singleton, CFA (@InvictusMacro) July 5, 2022
ARKK outperformed XLE by 13% today, the largest spread since inception. pic.twitter.com/2PgY6fwyFx
— Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) July 5, 2022
Well GROWTH to VALUE ratio is sporting higher lows now as the US treasury is turning around.
It is a start… pic.twitter.com/bWaYt7pCAj— conradseric, CMT, CAIA, CEFA (@conradseric) July 5, 2022
$XBI Biotech vs $QQQ NDX pic.twitter.com/QP7IX7IyKG
— Christian Fromhertz ?? (@cfromhertz) July 5, 2022
This is a cool chart. The relative strength of Healthcare and Materials. They were from being slightly positively correlated to sharply negative. In plain English, the market has turned to betting against the economy. pic.twitter.com/QDRDcGk2Rc
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) July 5, 2022
4th worst day for commodities in the last 16 years $DBC
-6.6% pic.twitter.com/35rFIh4LBX— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 5, 2022
June saw the biggest one-month plunge in the Bloomberg Commodity Index since 2011, and 5 days into July, it's already off another 4.3%. pic.twitter.com/fvW7PxTNEN
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) July 5, 2022
I think copper may be trying to tell us something… pic.twitter.com/GlwKNoVMCz
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) July 5, 2022
2s10s curve inverted pic.twitter.com/AEmJHhY3Vr
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) July 5, 2022
Euro breaking to its lowest level in nearly 20yrs $EUR/ $USD pic.twitter.com/mjiM9XZMzf
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) July 5, 2022
Did $DXY just get listed on Binance? pic.twitter.com/536RskR7Yk
— Ran NeuNer (@cryptomanran) July 5, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!