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Todayโs Summary
Wednesday, July 5, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq -0.03% | S&P 500 -0.20% | Dow -0.38% | Russell 2000 -1.26%
Sectors: 4 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Utilities led, rising +1.14%. Materials lagged by a wide margin, dropping -2.46%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +2.87% to $71.79 per barrel. Gold futures inched lower by -0.12% to $1,923 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.26% to $103.35.
Crypto: Bitcoin moved lower by -0.92% to $30,489. Ethereum fell -1.19% to $1,914.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.936% – its highest in nearly three months.
Here areย the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today’s Chart of the Day was sharedย in a noteย by Andrew Thrasher (@AndrewThrasher). The $VIX continues to sit near multi-year lows. However, Andrew points out thatย “the door is open for a spike in volatility.”ย The chart shows the $VIX over the past 15-years, with an indicator measuring the standard deviation for a composite of four volatility indices (Dow, S&P 500, Russell, and Nasdaq). The orange lines mark all of the readings below 0.60. Andrew first introduced this concept in his award-winning research paper, โForecasting a Volatility Tsunami,โ in which he explained,ย “Not all contractions are followed by volatility spikes, but nearly all spikes are preceded by these types of contractions.”ย Click here to read the full note.
Quote of the Day
โAre you long because you like it?
or
Do you like it because youโre long?โ
– Larry McCarthy
Top Links
Welcome to Q2 – Trading Adventures
Andy Moss checks in on the major averages amid this shortened holiday week.
July Technical Market Outlook – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison highlights some key charts to watch in the month ahead.
What’s Next for $QQQ Super Bullish to Super Bearish – StockCharts.com
David Keller lays out some potential paths that the Nasdaq ($QQQ) could take in the coming weeks.
The Second-Half Playbook for ETFs: Will Investors Return to Stock-Based ETFs? – CNBC
In this clip, Todd Sohn discusses some noteworthy trends in the ETF market.
Bitcoin & Ethereum New 52-Week Highs – All Star Charts
JC Parets looks at the two largest Cryptocurrencies as they continue to repair last year’s damage.
Top Tweets
Daily Mkt Mood: Neutral
1. Small loss for $SPX
2. But.. SOX -2.2% and RTY -1.2%
3. And yet bonds sell off
4. Commodities up
5. Dollar firmQuiet summer day plus investors in wait and see mode on eco data and earnings.
Feels like outlooks – or perhaps tone – may be tricky
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) July 5, 2023
$SPX How many lines will hold? pic.twitter.com/xLJZQurynn
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) July 5, 2023
The mega caps remain in tight uptrends, the likes of which you don't see too often. Check out the charts: pic.twitter.com/m80O21hnH4
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 5, 2023
S&P 500 +15.9% for 1H23, marking second-best first half performance (price only) since 2000 pic.twitter.com/FO9DLVupp5
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 5, 2023
At +38.8%, this has been the best first half of the year in Nasdaq 100 $NDX ever (h/t @DanRusso_CMT). The best 2H was +61.4% in 1999: pic.twitter.com/p3W5KvJOLw
— Optuma (@Optuma) July 5, 2023
Very interesting data.
And from a price behavior/construction perspective, we also have *somewhat similar* basing action today when comparing to what we saw in 1958…$SPX $SPY $ES_F https://t.co/efE06CRXMK pic.twitter.com/C10gdSNqpE
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) July 5, 2023
SPX follows bullish path of Presidential Cycle; Pres Cycle up but less robust until middle of Year 4 (2024)
Decennial Pattern weak from late Year 3 to mid Year 4 (Suttmeier BofA) pic.twitter.com/ZjAB7LVeiO
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ๐ (@MikeZaccardi) July 5, 2023
Will Copper follow $FCX? Or is it the other way around? $HG_F pic.twitter.com/uHKKzW0vuw
— Ian Culley (@IanCulley) July 5, 2023
#Oil is finally breaking out of the descending triangle!$CL_F #WTI pic.twitter.com/GLiJ0M0Dt8
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) July 5, 2023
Yields moving higher and look to be breaking out.
Something worth paying attention to when it comes to the "risk on" trade we've been seeing as of late.#interestrates $TNX pic.twitter.com/j2eAQdBbpT
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) July 5, 2023
As dull as it is, this is the exact price action you want to see on $BTC #bitcoin.
Holding tight against those prior highs as supply chews through demand. pic.twitter.com/Co6YkUOzFm— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA ๐จ๐ฆ (@MichaelNaussCMT) July 5, 2023
A great reminder for investors.
Stocks gain about 9% on avg per yr.
Yet, only 4 times since '50 did they gain b/t 8-10%.
Also, 21 times stocks were down on the year, yet 20 times they gained >20%
So stocks are rarely avg, and big gains are just as likely as negative returns. pic.twitter.com/TMNc1BaBIk
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 5, 2023