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Today’s Summary
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq -0.75% | S&P 500 -0.79% | Dow -1.07% | Russell 2000 -1.64%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Consumer Staples led but still fell -0.25%. Energy lagged, dropping -2.25%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures were unchanged and continue to trade at $71.80 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -0.61% to a three-month low of $1,915 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.23% to $103.11.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -0.91% to $30,223. Ethereum dropped -1.93% to $1,874.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a four-month high of 4.035%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
One reason for this morning's sharp sell-off is the rise in yields after a breakout — now back at March 2023 highs
After today's ADP report doubled expectations investors are now pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in July
$TNX pic.twitter.com/4i3aCn365M— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) July 6, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Matthew Timpane (@mtimpane). Yields are on the move again, with the the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching four month highs today. It peaked in October, but never really broke down. Instead, it’s spent the past ten months consolidating above the 2018 highs. This consolidation is starting to resemble a base within an uptrend. It still needs to clear resistance from the March highs (4.06%) and the October highs (4.24%). But, if it completes this base, we could see the 10-year yield make a new leg higher in the second half of the year.
Quote of the Day
“At all times, in all markets, in all parts of the world, the tiniest change in rates changes the value of every financial asset.”
– Warren Buffett
Top Links
One Reason for the Lackluster Performance in Small Caps – Thrasher Analytics
Andrew Thrasher examines what could be driving Small Cap underperformance.
Is German DAX Holding The Key To Global Stock Markets? – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the German DAX is at a key inflection point.
Island Reversals – Bart’s Charts
James Bartelloni looks at some potentially bearish island reversal patterns.
Instagram Threads vs Twitter! – The Morning Show
We joined The Morning Show earlier today to discuss some of the noteworthy trends and themes across the markets.
Top Tweets
Quite an island here at the opening: pic.twitter.com/0AMJJESR1w
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) July 6, 2023
Filled the gap and rallied hard on the $SPY pic.twitter.com/FOVcwfysaZ
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA 🇨🇦 (@MichaelNaussCMT) July 6, 2023
And yet another rejection at ~16000…$NYA pic.twitter.com/SXDhfNmVGI
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) July 6, 2023
S&P 500 still above the Aug '22 peak and equal-weight consumer discretionary vs consumer staples above the Feb peak.
As long as both of these hold, any weakness would be perfectly normal.
If one, or both, broke then we'd have more warning signs. pic.twitter.com/cdtOtFAENZ
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 6, 2023
Highest bullish value (46.4) in the AAII Sentiment Survey since November 2021. pic.twitter.com/6coWUlN4Mr
— Optuma (@Optuma) July 6, 2023
$QQQ/ $IWM ratio closed at its highest level since October 23, 2000 and closed above 2.0 for just the 4th time (all since May 31 this year) since that same date. pic.twitter.com/RHw5dqxaaT
— David Settle, CMT (@davidsettle42) July 6, 2023
Yo, Charts – Check it out pic.twitter.com/w8jQlTkwGT
— da Chart Life (@daChartLife) July 6, 2023
Crude oil $CL_F continues to be trapped below the⚓️VWAP from the April high
Weekly chart with daily inset pic.twitter.com/CnAsKW40Fr
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) July 6, 2023
Double breakout $TNX pic.twitter.com/GkgSvTOi2o
— Michael Kahn, CMT (@mnkahn) July 6, 2023
Are we going higher in the 10yr Treasury Note Yield?$TNX $SPX $SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/ofZJOFm6A2
— Sam McCallum (@Honeystocks1) July 6, 2023
$QQQ and Treasuries $TLT were moving together last year. We saw a big decoupling in April this year. If the market believes interest rates are likely to continue higher, those two might start to trade together again. pic.twitter.com/RqQ4y4dqyA
— ivanhoff.com (@ivanhoff2) July 6, 2023
Head and shoulders in $COIN pic.twitter.com/6jySM1P7XF
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 6, 2023