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Today’s Summary
Friday, July 14, 2023
Indices: Dow +0.33% | Nasdaq 100 -0.04% | S&P 500 -0.10% | Russell 2000 -1.01%
Sectors: 3 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Health Care led, gaining +1.50%. Energy lagged by a decent margin, dropping -2.64%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped -1.91% to $75.42 per barrel. Gold futures were flat today, closing the week at $1,964 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index snapped a six-day losing streak, rising +0.18% to $99.96.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -3.62% to $30,331. Ethereum fell -3.29% to $1,939.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 3.834%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Leaders keep leading – but now they have some followers.
YTD return for the median stock in the S&P 500 is up to 7.3% – it's highest level since the first week of February.
Since the end of May, median stock (+9.4%) has outperformed the index (+7.9%). pic.twitter.com/tTrWXH9Xpv
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) July 14, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche). It was another positive week for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising +2.42% to a new 52-week high. Skeptics of this rally frequently claim that the S&P 500 is being propped up by “a handful of Mega Cap stocks.” Leadership was getting pretty narrow, but the rally has broadened in recent weeks as more stocks have begun to participate. Willie points out that the Median S&P 500 Stock (orange) has been outpacing the S&P 500 (blue) since the end of May. This breadth improvement further invalidates the bear case for stocks and supports continued upside in the coming months.
Quote of the Day
“Bears don’t live on Park Avenue.”
– Bernard Baruch
Trendlines > Headlines
The latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines is out!
This week, Scott Brown of Brown Technical Insights joins us to make sense of the current market environment. We discuss the outlook for the S&P 500, ARK ETFs, Interest Rates, the Dollar, and more!
Top Links
NASDAQ Down 5 Straight During July Monthly Options Expiration Week – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch points out that July Options Expiration Week (next week) has had a bearish bias in recent years.
Implications of a Weaker Dollar – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist highlights the breakdown in the US Dollar and what it could mean for other asset classes.
Stock Market Analysis July 14, 2023 – AlphaTrends.Net
In this video, Brian Shannon recaps this week’s price action and lays out some key levels to watch next week.
Top Charts from the Industrial Sector – Grindstone Market Intelligence
Austin Harrison does a deep dive into the Industrial sector as it breaks out to all-time highs.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Funds See Outflows Even as They Rally – Yahoo Finance
Todd Sohn points out that investors aren’t interested in ARK ETFs despite their recent comeback.
Top Tweets
$SPY $SPX #SPY When in doubt, zoom out.
Happy Friday. pic.twitter.com/29j1zeedV6
— Jake Wujastyk (@Jake__Wujastyk) July 14, 2023
Breaking out to new all-time highs:
Tech sector $XLK
Industrials $XLI
Home construction $ITB
Semis $SMH pic.twitter.com/st00m6mEyq— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) July 14, 2023
New all time highs this week for the S&P500 Value ETF $IVE – will the S&P500 follow?
It never fails to amaze me that some folks choose to make life harder and short uptrends.$SPY $SPX pic.twitter.com/7sKDJlDYKm
— Sam McCallum (@Honeystocks1) July 14, 2023
Are we going to talk about how the Nasdaq 100 $NDX is up 43% YTD and within 7% of record highs or nah? pic.twitter.com/1vyPZS39Qe
— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) July 14, 2023
What happens if this breaks out?$VALUG pic.twitter.com/ARiXio3jmw
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) July 14, 2023
Speculative positioning in S&P 500 index futures has gotten notably less bearish compared to Q2, but still quite negative. Considering this data is pre-CPI, it wouldn't surprise me if the next updates show even more positivity. pic.twitter.com/EUeKFFKnXM
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) July 14, 2023
Active managers had less than 20% exposure to equities last October when the S&P 500 was at 3,500.
Today their equity exposure has jumped above 90% with the S&P 500 at 4,500. This is the highest exposure since November 2021. pic.twitter.com/GgtO8wq8uv
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 14, 2023
Things are getting interesting now…a new ETF with a clever symbol CHAT…first of many before this is over, I am sure.https://t.co/RaXKZlhHJi#FOMO #GETMEINSIDEWAYS 😂#trendfollowing #bullmarket #behavioralbias pic.twitter.com/VKMD8CYpfI
— David Lundgren, CMT CFA (@dlundgren3333) July 14, 2023
The worst investors in the world historically are at consensus that interest rates are going higher. This group has never bet so aggressively that bond prices are about to fall. How do you think this positioning will work out for them? pic.twitter.com/PibqgWIB59
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) July 14, 2023
I heard all about the breakout in $BTCUSD yesterday – oops pic.twitter.com/wsQpDpvBOd
— Jamie Saettele, CMT (@JamieSaettele) July 14, 2023
Ha I never realized this…
Goldman’s Unprofitable Company Index is literally just $ARKK. Perfect correlation.
(@TommyThornton) pic.twitter.com/idPyW9AOCE
— Stephen Geiger (@Stephen_Geiger) July 14, 2023