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Today’s Summary
Thursday, July 15th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks closed mostly lower in today’s session. The Dow inched higher by 54 points or 0.15%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.33% and 0.70%, respectively. The Russell 2000 closed lower by 0.55%.
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Utilities led, rising 1.13%. Energy lagged, falling 1.40%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures dropped 2.24% to $71.49 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.29% to $1,830 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index moved higher by 0.23%.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield continued lower to 1.301%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
"From failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction…"
Stay flexible $FDN $IGV $SOX ? pic.twitter.com/1Iw4ZwlBje
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) July 15, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Steve Strazza (@sstrazza). It’s a daily candlestick chart of the Dow Jones Internet ETF, $FDN, over the past nine months. The top-weighted holdings in this ETF include, $AMZN, $FB, $GOOGL, $PYPL and $NFLX. Steve points out that $FDN has formed a failed breakout. A failed breakout, or bull trap, as it’s also called is when price breaks out, but fails to hold above the breakout level, thus trapping the bulls who bought the breakout. It’s often said; “From failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction.” In a comment to The Chart Report, Steve said, “This isn’t the only tech-related ETF sporting a failed breakout right now, just take a look at the Software ETF, $IGV, and the Semiconductor ETF, $SOX. What’s notable about $FDN is that it holds so many of the Mega-Cap stocks that have been propping up the major indices recently, and it still can’t hold its recent breakout. $FDN will need to reclaim its February highs (around $245) soon, or we could see some more pronounced selling in the coming days/weeks.”
Quote of the Day
“Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at inflection points are we rewarded.”
– George Soros
Top Links
Breadth Metrics Weaken Across the Equity Market – Potomac Fund Management
Dan Russo analyzes breadth across the markets, pointing out that Small-Caps have seen the most deterioration recently.
Fewer Bulls Without More Bears – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the results of the latest sentiment surveys.
The Bears are Hibernating – All Star Charts
The team at All Star Charts offers their perspective on breadth and sentiment.
Market Wizard’s Tom Basso (Enjoy the Ride) – Against All Odds
Jason Perz interviews respected trader, Tom Basso.
Will Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Trigger Sell Signal? – See It Market
Chris Kimble points out that the Junior Gold Miners ETF, $GDXJ, is testing a crucial support level.
Top Tweets
We're coming up on the peak of the Presidential Election Cycle.
Historically the peak has come on Aug 4 of the post-election year and it bottoms on Sept 30 of the mid-term year.
Historically, the Dow has lost 2.6% in those 14 months, and gained 38.7% in the other 34 months.
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) July 15, 2021
The S&P 500 daily chart I'm watching. Are we just testing and bouncing or will we see a fail and and a fall? Time will tell. $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/i9AtBt37rW
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) July 15, 2021
S&P 500 has continued to trek higher but lacks confirmation from Dow transports (down since mid-May) and small caps (down since mid-March)
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results] pic.twitter.com/RaI4z6iO0Q— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 15, 2021
Nearly an 11 percentage point performance spread between NDX & IWM over the past month. pic.twitter.com/sBhQWHnmI3
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) July 15, 2021
Looks to be a significant level for the small caps $IWM
Would a break below signal a problem for the broader market $SPY $SPX $QQQ etc? pic.twitter.com/YaCIhNAe40— Sam McCallum (@honeystocks1) July 15, 2021
small caps dead money since Feb and coming back into important support level $IWM $RUT pic.twitter.com/bvwaJwstck
— BostonCharts (@bostonchaahhts) July 15, 2021
$RTY, 5m
Make it or break it time for Russell.
On a bullish note, the index has potentially formed my favorite set up — a Bear Trap. It will be confirmed if:
1. RTY can hold above the 2175 level
2. RTY can move above the 2200 levelWill it? pic.twitter.com/7fOH806NtR
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) July 15, 2021
The % of stocks above their 200MA has been trending lower as the $SPY marched higher since February illustrating the sector rotation and selectivity as the market marched higher, however, it remains higher than the it did in Nov low, supporting the longerterm trend is intact pic.twitter.com/L3XJGx53zi
— Bailey.Baxter2020 (@BBaxter2020) July 15, 2021
New highs are hard to come by at the moment…$SPY $SIA $IWM $QQQ pic.twitter.com/zpaWmxZtJG
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) July 15, 2021
$SPLV Low Volatility Equities (aka boring stocks) break out
top weights $CL $PEP $COST $PG $JNJ $VZ $HSY $MDLZ $MCD $RSG $MMC $KMB pic.twitter.com/jY8Q27gdfy
— Christian Fromhertz (@cfromhertz) July 15, 2021
$XLU $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/Sm19NjOc7J
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) July 15, 2021
Interesting price action we're seeing in Bitcoin $BTC
This is an important chart to monitor if you think $BTC is a leading indicator of risk-on/risk-off appetite for public equities.
cc: @TechCharts @PeterLBrandt pic.twitter.com/cozzyZXi7R
— Brandon Beylo (@marketplunger1) July 15, 2021
Upside-down Bitcoin. https://t.co/FgkxrvjskH users can invert any chart by adding a minus sign in front of the symbol. pic.twitter.com/4cCNFYhbOM
— Danny Merkel (@ChartingTrends) July 15, 2021
The irony of financial markets $BTC https://t.co/s6OdbqKxUe pic.twitter.com/r4epWfaJap
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) July 15, 2021
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!