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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, July 28th, 2020
Indices: US stocks closed lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 205 points or 0.77%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.65%, while the Nasdaq underperformed, dropping 1.27%. The Russell 2000 moved lower by 1.00%.
Sectors: Real Estate led, gaining 1.92%. Materials lagged, falling 2.20%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell 1.35% to $41.04 per barrel. Gold futures closed higher for the eighth day in a row, rising 0.70% to an all-time high of $1,945 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index snapped a seven-day losing streak, inching higher by 0.08%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 0.584%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The US Dollar Index declined yesterday for the 7th day in a row, at its lowest level since September 2018. $USD pic.twitter.com/6VLwzpQpMm
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 28, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Charlie Bilello (@CharlieBilello). It’s a daily candlestick chart of the US Dollar Index ($USD) over the past two years. $USD managed to move slightly higher today, ending a seven-day losing streak. After peaking in March, the Dollar Index reversed lower and began establishing a downtrend. Going into today, Charlie pointed out that $USD was trading at its lowest level since 2018. A bounce in the near-term would not be a surprise. But, longer-term, price has made a series of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting that the path of least resistance is…you guessed it, lower. The recent weakness in the Dollar has provided a boost to Stocks, Commodities, and even Bitcoin. Gold has perhaps been the biggest beneficiary of a weaker Dollar. Prior to 2020, the Dollar was in a low volatility environment and somewhat trendless. Now that volatility has picked up and price has begun to trend lower, the Dollar will likely become a bigger piece of the broader market puzzle.
Quote of the Day
“I’d be a bum on the street with a tin cup, if the markets were always efficient.”
– Warren Buffett
Top Links
Bitcoin’s Rally Above $11,000 is Exactly What Crypto Bulls are Looking for, Oppenheimer’s Technical Analysis Head Says – Business Insider
Ari Wald of Oppenheimer offers his technical perspective on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Got the Gold Memo – The Reformed Broker
In this quick read, Josh Brown weighs-in on the relationship between Bitcoin, Gold, and the US Dollar.
Gold (GLD) Back to Outperforming – Bespoke
Bespoke takes a look at Rocks vs. Stocks ($GLD vs. $SPY).
Who Says You Can’t Time the Market? – StockCharts
Mish Schneider examines a chart of the Junk Bond ETF, $JNK, and what it’s telling us about risk appetite.
August: Top NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Month of Election Years – Almanac Trader
August has historically been one of the worst months of the year for stocks. However, seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch explains that August in election years haven’t been so bad.
Top Tweets
Tech has been killing small caps for years, but maybe we're about to see a bigger rotation back?$NDX $QQQ$RUT $IWM pic.twitter.com/xmqXMtVhGZ
— BostonCharts (@bostonchaahhts) July 28, 2020
The relative trend of semis vs. the SPX continues to show that sticking with the leaders is a nice way to go about it sometimes. pic.twitter.com/G0GTzbSadl
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 28, 2020
TSM is clearly a boost for the Taiwan equity market breakout. pic.twitter.com/izHOTBg4ih
— Strategas (@StrategasRP) July 28, 2020
Weaker dollar => US underperformance. Dollar in a consistent downtrend which means this ratio most likely to favor non-US over US stocks. Three top ranked global ETFs according to @StockCharts SCTR rankings? $KBA $EWT $MCHI pic.twitter.com/59pm4iMzzA
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) July 28, 2020
Oil prices are getting a boost from the weaker dollar, with the biggest negative correlation between the two since 2012, via @TheTerminal pic.twitter.com/smLDeMJyr3
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 28, 2020
What if the 80-month moving average catches the dollar drop? It has a little over three days to get above it.
Seems like an important pivot point throughout history… $DXY pic.twitter.com/C6tGTsN2G6
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) July 28, 2020
as @TrendSpider pointed out earlier today, the VWAP Anchored from the 2011 high was hit in $SLV today, this is also a prior level of resistance
Not a place to be bearish, but perhaps a time to expect the pace to slow down and digest gains.. pic.twitter.com/MAapd7gk1H
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) July 28, 2020
#Silver coming into my target zone at $26 which acted as support 4 times in 2011-2012. RSI now getting extremely overbought and bullish news everywhere. A good area to think about taking profits or trailing stops and reloading for better entry on a pullback. $SLV pic.twitter.com/mFNCsZkhbM
— Tarek I. Saab (@FibLines) July 28, 2020
$BTCUSD Bitcoin …? pic.twitter.com/4vJPPw3C2h
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) July 28, 2020
Bitcoin looks like it's ready to explode. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/Mi5tKzsD19
— Greg Rieben (@gregrieben) July 28, 2020