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Today’s Summary
Monday, July 31, 2023
Indices: Russell 2000 +1.09% | Dow +0.28% | S&P 500 +0.15% | Nasdaq +0.04%
Sectors: 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +1.90%. Health Care lagged, falling -0.77%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.51% to a three-month high of $81.80 per barrel. Gold futures gained +0.47% to $2,009 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index rose +0.16% to $101.86.
Crypto: Bitcoin inched lower by -0.22% to $29,214. Ethereum fell -0.30% to $1,856.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched higher to 3.965%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Gold is getting little media attention, even as it remains just 5% below all-time highs.
Source: Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/qLMmSKqzko
— Nick Reece (@nicholastreece) July 31, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Nick Reece (@nicholastreece). Gold has been perking up again, only this time, nobody seems to care. Nick points out that the number of news articles mentioning Gold (white bars) is at a decade low despite the fact that the yellow metal is less than 5% from record highs. The media has given up on Gold because it’s been a case of the boy who cried wolf in recent years. It’s fumbled three breakout attempts in the past three years now. Nobody knows if the fourth time will be the charm, but this lack of enthusiasm is bullish. It’s also worth noting, we’re entering a bullish time of year for Gold prices.
Quote of the Day
“Common sense is not so common.”
– Voltaire
Top Links
August’s First Trading Day Weak Last 25 Years – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch looks at how stock have historically performed on the first trading day in August.
Weak Breadth? Not Anymore – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harrison looks at the recent breadth improvements.
Dogs of the Dow for the Dog Days of Summer – Bespoke
Bespoke checks in on the Dogs of the Dow strategy.
Do You Own Enough Energy? – All Star Charts
JC Parets looks at the resurgence in Energy stocks
Top Tweets
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 (@FusionptCapital) July 31, 2023
Re: 5 month winning streaks, most of them have occurred at new all-time high monthly closes for the S&P 500 but the picture doesn't get any weaker if you only filter by those that didn't close at a new all-time high monthly close.
See below.
"Strength begets strength". pic.twitter.com/PEjCgoC0zp
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) July 31, 2023
Best starts to a year for the S&P 500 through 144 trading days… pic.twitter.com/146XnkJsew
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 31, 2023
Heading into the blah part of the year for both temperatures and market returns (based on history)
Since 1950, the August-September timeframe has been the weakest two-month stretch for the S&P 500$SPX pic.twitter.com/5PFAsC4C75
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) July 31, 2023
Been a great run, but some of the most vocal bears have been offering apologies lately.
Couple that with the historically weak Aug/Sept months coming up and maybe a small break is due.
Lastly, up >17.5% YTD heading in August? Higher only 3 out of 11 times and down 1.1% on avg. pic.twitter.com/SagosbZJMT
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 31, 2023
If the S&P500 is going to take a well-deserved break, this would be a perfectly logical time in the cycle for that to happen pic.twitter.com/FX03cUlYx3
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) July 31, 2023
$IWM +6% in Julyhttps://t.co/zWkYDjOgpG @seekingalpha @stockcharts @Pdunuwila pic.twitter.com/jPTVwvLRAB
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) July 31, 2023
Small caps $IWM on pace for their highest close since August 2022.
Typical bull market things. pic.twitter.com/60pewyZ5Lz
— Justin Spittler (@JSpitTrades) July 31, 2023
$NYFANG – Is it crazy to think this index is just getting started? Maybe.
Have crazier things happened? Definitely. pic.twitter.com/YJqPeKYTgx
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) July 31, 2023
Joining the large-cap $SPX 500 stocks and the mid-cap $MID 400 stocks, the S&P 1500 super composite index reached an all-time high in its cumulative daily breadth index. The small-cap $SML still lags but is closing the gap. @thechartreport pic.twitter.com/aWnOo1lPSI
— Ted Theodore, CFA (@tedtheodore) July 31, 2023
Chinese stocks are perking up with $FXI breaking free from this consolidation pic.twitter.com/pPxqRDNWrh
— Matthew Timpane, CMT (@mtimpane) July 31, 2023
$KWEB
Price is illustrating the story of Chinese equities told by those in the know
1) Resistance is being broken
2) Price above 10-ma> 20-ma > 50-ma
3) Moving averages all upward sloping
4) Hammer candles with confirmation at reversals@BrianTycangco @ahern_brendan pic.twitter.com/ms5VBpJ9cr— Jonathan Harrier, CMT (@jonathanharrier) July 31, 2023
not convinced we have a trend change just yet but keeping an eye on this relationship as $EEM outperformed $SPY in July
July perf % $EEM +6.0% $SPY +3.3% pic.twitter.com/W7xEz2fMJd
— Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸 (@cfromhertz) July 31, 2023
gold is about to enter it's strongest season… pic.twitter.com/d5lsEm34nB
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) July 31, 2023
“Dr Copper” again proves to be a better economic forecaster than most economists. A year ago 90% of #economists predicted economic #recession but Dr Copper correctly said otherwise. pic.twitter.com/6li50KX79h
— Richard Bernstein Advisors (@RBAdvisors) July 31, 2023
Just a reminder that no stock in an uptrend has ever gone bankrupt. pic.twitter.com/aF96qzH0Zx
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) July 31, 2023