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Today’s Summary
Tuesday, August 1, 2023
Indices: Dow +0.20% | Nasdaq -0.25% | S&P 500 -0.27% | Russell 2000 -0.45%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Industrials led, rising +0.30%. Utilities lagged, falling -1.22%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.53% to $81.37 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -1.51% to $1,979 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher by +0.10% to $101.96.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.23% to $29,592. Ethereum gained+0.75% to $1,870.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.027%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Pre-Election Seasonality Suggests August Could Be Bumpy For Equity Markets$SPX $SPY https://t.co/3C3dUJqJzg pic.twitter.com/oSPBxeRjhk
— Andrew Thrasher, CMT (@AndrewThrasher) August 1, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Andrew Thrasher (@AndrewThrasher). The S&P 500 closed higher for the fifth consecutive month in July. However, stocks have historically stalled over the next few months, especially in pre-election years like 2023. Andrew compares the current rally since May (black) to the past eight pre-election years since 1991. It’s common to see the S&P 500 pause, pull back, or correct around August of pre-election years. It would be unusual to see the S&P 500 continue to rise at its recent pace over the next few months. If we do see strength, it will be a testament to how strong the underlying bid is. For more on this chart, read the original blog post here.
Quote of the Day
“We learn nothing from history except that we learn nothing from history.”
– Cicero
Top Links
Stocks Don’t Like August, Now What? – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick shares his thoughts on the upcoming seasonal headwinds.
Pre-Election Seasonality Suggests August Could Be Bumpy for Equity Markets
Andrew Thrasher points out that the S&P 500 has historically struggled in August of pre-election years.
Key ETF Performance Through July 2023 – Bespoke
Bespoke highlights some key takeaways from price action in July.
Technical Tuesdays with The Chart Report – Twitter Spaces
Here’s the recording of our discussion on Twitter Spaces earlier today.
The Grandfather of Behavioral Investing – Albert Bridge Capital
While Benjamin Graham is often thought of as the grandfather of fundamental analysis, Drew Dickson points out that Graham was also interested in the behavioral aspect of the markets.
Top Tweets
The S&P 500 hasn't dropped 1% or more in a day since late May.
And if we don't get a 1% drop before Labor Day, it'll be the first summer since at least 1990 in which the S&P 500 didn't post a 1% down day.
😎
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) August 1, 2023
Seasonality: August less robust and September bearish pic.twitter.com/lEEsTG3LNt
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 1, 2023
What a typical August looks like: pic.twitter.com/tmGEVGB9dp
— John Rothe, CMT (@JohnRothe) August 1, 2023
New High Score pic.twitter.com/Lml8eoIikS
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) August 1, 2023
Energy was the top sector last month.
We've been OW for several months now, as we don't see a recession and expect demand to remain high.
And let's not forget the last time fund managers were this bearish on commodities was when oil was trading at -$38/barrel. pic.twitter.com/efcvPbEktC
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 1, 2023
High beta vs low vol up against an important level$SPHB $SPLV pic.twitter.com/75961hW8tU
— David Rath, CMT, CFA (@DJwrath) August 1, 2023
the average stock… will this time be different? pic.twitter.com/M3keMc9m70
— David Cox, CMT, CFA (@DavidCoxRJ) August 1, 2023
$SPX, USD and 10-Year Yield rising TOGETHER since mid-July.
Another clear, yet important, difference vs. 2022.
Which will slip first? #markets #dollar #bonds pic.twitter.com/8l1RCYcODm
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) August 1, 2023
Big reversal for the U.S. Dollar Index #DXY, but it's still trading below a downward-sloping 200-day moving average cloud.
🔵 200-day EMA
🟡 200-day SMAThe DXY has been getting rejected on this EMA cloud since Dec.'22. Could this time be different? Yes. But I don't think so. pic.twitter.com/RUCCDnPSzr
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) August 1, 2023
$GLD – Wake me up when it finally closes a month above $185. pic.twitter.com/mhnZ7NHMm3
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) August 1, 2023
30-year yields just hit the highest level of this year pic.twitter.com/Eo8WC9InOO
— Dani Burger (@daniburgz) August 1, 2023
Longer-term US yields are quietly surging today:
🔷 The 10-year Treasury ($TNX below) is up 9bps, within 5bps of 2023 highs
🔷 The 20-year Treasury is up 10bps to a 2023 high at 4.32%
🔷 The 30-year Treasury is up 10bps to a 2023 high at 4.11% pic.twitter.com/48wnD36DSW— Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@MWellerFX) August 1, 2023
— Kenneth Dredd (@KennethDredd) August 1, 2023