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Todayās Summary
Friday, August 4, 2023
Indices:Ā Russell 2000Ā -0.20%Ā | DowĀ -0.43%Ā | NasdaqĀ -0.51%Ā | S&P 500Ā -0.53%
Sectors: 2 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, risingĀ +1.45%. Tech lagged, droppingĀ -1.36%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures gainedĀ +1.56%Ā to $82.82 per barrel. Gold futures roseĀ +0.37%Ā to $1,976 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index droppedĀ -0.47%Ā to $102.00.
Crypto: Bitcoin fellĀ -0.34%Ā to $29,077. Ethereum slippedĀ -0.39%Ā to $1,827.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped toĀ 4.040%.
Here areĀ the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
This week's US debt downgrade has coincided with recent weakness in stocks, but the charts signaled stocks were running out of steam and due for consolidation. 14-day RSI peaked in June, and July's price gain wasn't confirmed. Likewise, MACD stalled for the past 6 weeks. pic.twitter.com/NNbJMo37db
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) August 4, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams). The S&P 500 ended on the lows of the week after selling off into the close on Friday. It fellĀ -2.28%Ā overall, marking the worst week in nearly five months. While many attribute the recent weakness the US debt downgrade, Gina points out that momentum indicators were hinting at a potential pullback for several weeks. RSI (middle pane) formed a bearish divergence in July, as it madeĀ lower highsĀ while price madeĀ higher highs. Gina adds that the MACD indicator (lower pane) was also stalling in July. This is nothing more than a healthy pullback at this point, and the uptrend off the October lows remains intact. Traders will be watching the August 2022 highs (around 4,300) for potential support in the coming weeks.
Quote of the Day
“The stock market is human nature on parade.”
–Ā William O’Neil
Trendlines > Headlines
The latest episode of Trendlines over Headlines is out!
This week,Ā Sam RoĀ joins us to discuss markets, news, the economy and more!
Sam is a prominent financial journalist and editor of theĀ TKer, a newsletter geared toward long-term investors.
Prior to launching TKer, Sam worked at some of the largest financial media outlets, including Forbes, Business Insider, Yahoo Finance, Axios, and more!
Top Links
Weakest Time of Year for Stocks – All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that stocks are entering a historically weak period within the 4-year Presidential Cycle.
Apple Earnings Analysis: Cause for Concern? – Day Trader Playbook
Yuriy Matso looks at $AAPL as it retests the breakout level after reporting earnings.
Stock Market Analysis 8/4/23 – AlphaTrends
Brian Shannon analyzes this week’s price action and highlights some key levels to watch next week.
Top Charts from the Consumer Discretionary Sector – Grindstone Intelligence
Austin Harison highlights some noteworthy stocks within the Consumer Discretionary sector.
Have Treasury Curve Spreads Bottomed – LPL Financial Research
Adam Turnquist points out that the yield curve could be forming a bottom.
Top Tweets
Weekly Mkt Mood: Risk-Off
1. Stocks down >2%
2. Worst $SPX $NDX week since March 10
3. $AAPL -7% for worst week of 2023
4. Commodities fall too
5. Dollar up 3rd weekTrend shifts can be subtle, this weakness needs to be watched esp with…
Apple all out breaking down.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) August 4, 2023
First week of August is a bloody one. $SPY š©ø pic.twitter.com/rEX7pqpCvN
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) August 4, 2023
Weekly $SPX update: the debt downgrade, spike in long-term rates, and mediocre tech earnings all provided good reasons for a much-needed pullback. The 10wk EMA sits just about 1% lower near 4426, but does that gap between the 10wk and 40wk EMA need to shrink a bit? pic.twitter.com/XkpsnbqUQ2
— Michael Turvey (@MikeTurvey_TDA) August 4, 2023
Bearish outside day. pic.twitter.com/IIM36iPp93
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) August 4, 2023
$AAPL ruh roh:
-Trend line break
-Under the 50dma
-Worst sesh since Sept pic.twitter.com/Sg6idwPlDq— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT š (@MikeZaccardi) August 4, 2023
$NDX Top 7, after earnings:
3 up $AMZN $GOOGL $META
3 down $AAPL $MSFT $TSLA$NVDA end of month.
Overall, tech post earnings, mostly lower, from the charts I follow. pic.twitter.com/wDqTkHcpPT— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) August 4, 2023
The S&P 500 has risen an average of 43% in the first year of the past 10 bull markets.
But it wasn't ever a straight line up pic.twitter.com/bKUzsFWhTt
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) August 4, 2023
Seasonality is āclimate, not weatherā and guarantees nothing. That said, anyone who is surprised if the market corrects in the months ahead is NOT a student of market history. @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/mmCWLI8MY9
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) August 4, 2023
Widespread weakness:
ā¢ Since the 2021 Top, similar weakness was seen *after* Stocks had already peaked.
ā¢ It was *too early* to Buy.
ā¢ Waiting for stabilization & strength was *much more effective*.
Patience is critical here. pic.twitter.com/9tdgWVE63N
— Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) August 4, 2023
Crude Oil had its 6th consecutive green week, the longest weekly winning streak since February 2022 pic.twitter.com/Ccija04Bui
— Barchart (@Barchart) August 5, 2023
$XLE and $TNX – Energy allocation makes sense if yields continue to rise.
FYI : S&P 500 is ~4% Energy. pic.twitter.com/uPx5LDEz2V
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) August 4, 2023
No way to know what Ackman was doing yesterday, but I bet it wasn't shorting when the news came out after the $TLT had declined 8% from its short term peak 13 days ago pic.twitter.com/jM4UGNp6Hj
— Brian Shannon, CMT (@alphatrends) August 4, 2023